Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are mega-slates, and then there’s whatever the NBA has blessed us with Wednesday, as there are a whopping 12 total games on the NBA DFS schedule.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Bulls at Cavaliers preview
CHI -2, total: 211
Zach LaVine remains out for the Bulls, and they’ve been an easy team to break down in his absence. Over the last three games in this scenario, Thaddeus Young of all players has led the team with a 34.1% usage rate (1.37 DKP/min). While that usage rate is downright elite for his price, his minutes are still too low to trust in anything more than large-field tournaments.
I would much rather default to Nikola Vucevic (31.2% usage rate, 1.56 DKP/min over that span) and Coby White (25.8% usage rate, 1.17 DKP/min) over that span. Both are still cheap enough given the elite matchup to warrant consideration.
The matchup is equally as exploitable from the other side of this game, thrusting both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland into consideration in the backcourt. Between the two, I have more interest in the savings for Garland given his peripheral production. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 20.2 points, 8.0 assists and 2.6 rebounds in 36.5 minutes per game.
Kevin Love is also worth consideration at $6,500 having played 30 minutes in consecutive games. While his ceiling may not be what it once was, but it’s still north of 40 DraftKings points.
Thunder at Pacers preview
IND -10.5, total: 225.5
The Thunder continue to be extremely thin, especially in the frontcourt, as Isaiah Roby is slated to miss his second consecutive game. This should leave Moses Brown and Tony Bradley to continue to soak up the center minutes while Darius Bazley should continue to soak up a massive number of minutes at the power forward. Because Brown and Bradley continue to limit the ceilings of one another, I’m OK passing on them and defaulting to Bazley. He’s topped 31 fantasy points in four of his last six games, having averaged 20.8 points per game over his last four.
If Luguentz Dort plays (currently questionable), he’s an elite mid-tier target. Prior to his injury, he had attempted 66 total shots over his previous three games and shot at least 37% or better from deep in all three games. Given his newfound offensive upside in addition to his stock upside, he would be an ideal low-owned mid-tier option.
This is an extremely exploitable matchup for the Pacers, as the Thunder defense has been absolutely putrid with all of their key pieces out. With both Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis out, as well as Goga Bitadze questionable, we could see a ton of Doug McDermott, JaKarr Sampson and Justin Holiday. Depending on how the rest of the injury report shakes out, all three could be elite values.
Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert are elite plays in this game as well, though if Dort suits up, that would be a massive knock to whoever he guards. Nonetheless, there are more peripherals and shots to go around with two main frontcourt pieces out, making both elite plays. Brogdon makes more sense in cash, while LeVert is better suited for tournaments.
Suns at Sixers preview
PHO -1, total: 221
After both missed their last game, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris find themselves questionable for Wednesday’s game. In the last game without them, Joel Embiid posted 1.85 DKP/min with a 43.2% usage rate, 47.1% assist rate, and 24.1% rebounding rate. Regardless of the matchup, if these two are out, Embiid is one of the best plays on the slate. Even if they’re in, he’s 100% in play against the lackluster defense of Deandre Ayton.
If they’re active, I have little interest in them on a massive slate given the individual matchups they’d draw between Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges. If they’re out, Shake Milton (23.7% usage rate last game) and Matisse Thybulle (1.02 DKP/min) make sense as value plays, but it’s an overall unappealing game to target for value.
The Suns’ outlook gets a bit more appealing if Simmons and Harris end up sitting, but I still don’t have a massive amount of interest here. Ayton is easier to cross off against Joel Embiid, but Chris Paul would be an extremely enticing option if Simmons sits. Even if he’s in, there’s a path to upside for Paul, who can carry his night on the back of peripherals alone. If looking at recent history, Devin Booker has absolutely torched the Sixers (listed below):
Based on this alone, he’s worth a shot in tournaments at this price.
Warriors at Wizards preview
GSW -2.5, total: 239.5
The top two point guards on the entire slate find themselves in the same game, as Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook are in arguably the best form of any two players in the NBA.
Curry has posted at least 62 DraftKings points in four of his last five games while notching at least 10 triples in each of those four games as well. The form he’s in right now is other-worldly and in one of the best matchups on the slate, he’s a top spend-up on the slate. Given the matchup, I have a lot of interest in Draymond Green here as well. He thrives in exploitable and fast-paced matchups, making this a spot where he could be staring at a massive triple-double as his ceiling.
Outside of those two, Andrew Wiggins is a mid-tier play that I really like. He’s played at least 40 minutes in three of his last four games and while the per-minute production hasn’t been stellar, his upside is still through the roof for his price and it’s harder to find more secure minutes.
The Wizards find themselves in a similarly good spot, making the duo of Westbrook and Bradley Beal viable once again. Given the double-double and triple-double bonuses on DraftKings, I prefer Westbrook there at his price compared to FanDuel, whereas I prefer Beal over Westbrook on FanDuel given his massive price discount ($8,500). As usual, it’s hard to endorse the rest of this team given how much usage the guards soak up.
If looking elsewhere, Daniel Gafford may be the best bet. Sure, he’s only seen more than 20 minutes once over his last five games, but over that same span, he’s averaged 1.36 DKP/min, making him an elite salary saver at center.
Nets at Raptors preview
TOR -2, total: 228.5
The Nets come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after a riveting late-game win against the Pelicans Tuesday. Already without both James Harden and Kevin Durant, there’s an outside shot that we could also see Kyrie Irving rest on the second night. While I don’t think that will be the case, it’s something to watch for. If he’s active, it’s hard not to like him under $10,000 after he essentially had a floor game and still surpassed 40 DK points Tuesday.
The value in Bruce Brown, Joe Harris, Landry Shamet and DeAndre Jordan will still carry ownership on Wednesday, but on a 12-game slate, I think it’s much easier to look elsewhere than it was on a five-game slate. Of the four, Brown is my favorite option.
For one of the first times in what seems like an eternity, the Raptors have a clean injury report (for now). That doesn’t mean players won’t be ruled out for rest, but as things stand to start the morning, the full starting lineup is expected to play. If that becomes a reality, I don’t have a ton of interest in a game that could very well blow out. If forced to choose, however, Fred VanVleet at $7,700 would be my top choice. If any of them sit out, it’d provide an immediate bump to those that are active, making them viable in all formats.
Hawks at Knicks preview
NYK -2, total: 217.5
Both these teams are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and the Knicks are currently the hottest team in basketball, winning seven straight games and covering in all seven.
The Hawks have slowed their pace down since the coaching change but are still a beatable matchup. This puts RJ Barrett and Julius Randle in the conversation, though I do have a bit of concern about tired legs given Thibs’ rotations on a back-to-back. If looking to get different with your Knicks’ exposure, I like targeting one of the point guards here. If Derrick Rose starts, he makes the most sense, but if he rests, I prefer whoever starts in his place against the infamous defense of Trae Young (or lack thereof), given he ranks 87th out of 90 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus this season.
This is an absolutely brutal matchup for the Hawks, as the Knicks rank top-10 in the NBA in virtually all of the important defensive metrics while allowing the least points per game in the NBA. Because of this, the Hawks are a team that I will likely cross off unless we get resting news. If there’s any Hawks player that I want to target as a one-off, it’s Clint Capela simply given his newfound floor/ceiling combination since joining the Hawks.
Jazz at Rockets preview
UTA -11, total: 227.5
Donovan Mitchell remains out for the Jazz, but they still come into this game as the favorites and should be a team we look to target on the mega-slate. In the last game without Mitchell, we saw Mike Conley log 35 DK points in only 28 minutes while Rudy Gobert posted 37 DK points in the same amount of playing time (28 min). Given the offensive bumps without Mitchell, they are both elite plays in this game. Jordan Clarkson is also a great option given his 31.1% usage rate with Mitchell off the floor this season, but his $6,600 price makes me want to look elsewhere in cash games.
If you want to get different with your Jazz exposure, Bojan Bogdanovic sports a 23.2% usage rate and posts 0.97 DKP/min with Mitchell off the floor this season and should see enough minutes to pay off his price tag in this game.
The Rockets are in an extremely unappealing spot Wednesday, but John Wall at $7,700 feels like a bargain given his 1.17 DKP/min clip this season. With the Jazz being an exploitable team from the point guard position, he’s a viable piece for Houston. Outside of him, I really don’t have any interest.
Pistons at Mavericks preview
DAL -12.5, total: 221
Even with Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee returning to the Pistons’ rotation Wednesday, there’s still value to be had given their desire to give young players run late in the season, specifically Isaiah Stewart. Over his last five games, he’s posted 14.2 points, 12.6 rebounds, 2.4 stocks and 1.2 assists in 26.0 minutes per game, giving him more than enough upside even with Plumlee in the lineup to warrant consideration at $5,600 on DraftKings. What’s even worse is that FanDuel decreased his price $300 after scoring over 50 FDP, making him an elite value option. Given the minutes that he’s siphoned from Plumlee, the latter is not on my radar on this slate.
With all the point guards healthy for the Pistons, I have no interest in trying to peg down their rotation in the backcourt, making Stewart the only player that I have passing interest in here.
The Mavs duo is always in play, especially in an exploitable matchup that caters right to them. As you can see (outlined below via advanced DvP), the Pistons struggle mightily in literally every category where these two thrive.
Given the options at the top of the salary scale, I prefer Porzingis here on a dollar-for-dollar basis, but I cannot argue with you if you opt for Luka and leverage some ownership relative to the other stud point guards that will be more popular.
If Tim Hardaway ends up sitting out, Jalen Brunson and Josh Richardson could see an incremental uptick in minutes, making them interesting value pivots.
Heat at Spurs preview
SAS -1.5, total: 215
Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all sat out last game. With all three questionable once again, we could be staring at more Heat value Wednesday. The obvious choices here are Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic, and while I typically try to avoid playing both in the same lineup, this slate is an exception if both Herro and Butler are ruled out, as last game is proof that they can both achieve ceilings simultaneously.
If Butler and Adebayo are out, this would also open up more time for Trevor Ariza, Andre Iguodala and Precious Achiuwa. All three saw at least 28 minutes last game with Iguodala showing out with 43 DK points and while that is a rather unexpected ceiling, he’d still be an elite option at $3,600. Achiuwa would be my second-favorite choice here. If only one of the two studs is out, it’s rather easy to fire up whoever is active between Butler and Adebayo and have confidence that they can smash.
The status of the stars will determine how much interest I have in the Spurs here, as the Heat defense gets marginally worse with them out. In that case, DeMar DeRozan would see a significant bump in terms of his individual matchup, making him a more tolerable option. Regardless of the status of the stars, however, Dejounte Murray is a solid play at $7,100. He’s had some floor games of late, but he’s proven that his floor is closer to 30 DK points than 20-25, making him a strong cash-game option.
Grizzlies at Clippers preview
LAC -4.5, total: 226.5
Kawhi Leonard sat out Tuesday due to right foot soreness and will be reevaluated in a week, leaving Paul George the keys to the castle for the game against the Grizzlies. It’ll be hard to get away from George even at his elevated price, as he’s been brilliant over the last month without Leonard on the court, posting a 39.9% usage rate, 29.8% assist rate and 1.56 DKP/min.
Marcus Morris has averaged 1.07 DKP/min over that same stretch with Leonard off of the court, while Ivica Zubac has averaged 1.09, and they would be the only other Clippers that I absolutely love unless Terance Mann draws another start. Zubac should have an exploitable matchup for a cheap tag with Jonas Valanciunas already ruled out.
With him out, we should continue to see more Xavier Tillman and at $4,200, he makes for an ultra-strong value play, even with the potential return of Jaren Jackson. Even if the latter returns, he’s bound to be on a rather strict minutes limit given the length of his absence, rendering him too risky to trust on a 12-game slate, but certainly a player to monitor moving forward.
Ja Morant is a strong play once again and could be an even stronger play if Dillon Brooks sits out again. In the last game without both Brooks and Valanciunas, Morant posted over 60 FD points in an overtime thriller. The wings of Grayson Allen and De'Anthony Melton benefitted as well and would once again if Brooks sits out. Both have enough upside to warrant consideration with Melton offering a $500 discount off Allen given the fact that the latter has scored over 20 raw points in three of his last four games.
Nuggets at Blazers preview
DEN -1.5, total: 226
The Blazers dropped a heartbreaker to the Clippers Tuesday and turn right around to another tough matchup against the Nuggets, but they should get Jusuf Nurkic back at the very least. Even with him back, my only interest here is with the backcourt in CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Anfernee Simons.
Of the three, McCollum will be the most popular and carries the highest ceiling, but I’ll defer to Paul George in that price range again and take the discount on Norman Powell for my Blazers exposure. Simons has now played 30 minutes in two of his last three games and while his 19 minutes Tuesday could be a bit concerning, it could also mean he’ll have fresher legs than his teammates Wednesday. Given the discount on him, he’s still worth a dart in large-field tournaments in this matchup.
The player that I have the most interest in when looking at this game is Nikola Jokic. He’s now topped 50 DraftKings points in nine consecutive games, solidifying an elite floor with Murray out for the season and demonstrated his ceiling last game with a 78.75-DK-point outing. The Blazers rank 29th against three of his player traits (dimer, primary ball handler, scorer), 25th against point forwards, and 28th against superstars. If this doesn’t scream ceiling game, then I don’t know what does.
The beauty of that aDvP breakdown is that it doesn’t necessarily apply solely to Jokic. Michael Porter is also classified as a scorer, giving him a heap of upside and a perfect chance to bounce back from a rather down game considering his 43 minutes, but still having topped 20 raw points in nine of his last 10 games. With Monte Morris out again, we can expect Will Barton to see more ball-handling duties as well as PJ Dozier. Both of these players are ones that I prefer over Facundo Campazzo for their respective prices.
Timberwolves at Kings preview
SAC -5, total: 239.5
This is the third meeting between these two teams this month and the second in 24 hours. In the two games so far, there have been an average of 239 total points per game, making it an elite late-night hammer.
On the second leg of a back-to-back though, we could see this total slip a tad, making it a decent chance to get in on the under. Nonetheless, there are some elite DFS plays, starting with Karl-Anthony Towns. He just obliterated the Kings for over 65 DraftKings points Tuesday, marking the third time over the last 11 games going over 60. If pivoting off of Embiid or Jokic at the top, Towns is the next-best option. I do, however, prefer D'Angelo Russell on a per-dollar basis given the back-to-back, assuming he plays. Given the coach-speak about the lifting of his minutes limit, it would make sense to see him not only play but also see an uptick on the 25 minutes that he saw Monday, giving him enormous upside after logging over 40 DK points in those 25 minutes. If he sits out, Anthony Edwards would get a nice boost on top of already being a strong option given the fact that he’s now attempted at least 20 shots in three of his last five games.
For the Kings, this is a spot to go right back to De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, despite a relatively down game from the latter. As I hit on prior to the slate Tuesday, the Wolves are the worst team in the NBA in terms of three-point percentage allowed, opening up a massive ceiling for Hield. Fox, on the other hand, doesn’t rely on the three as much, but carries 60-DK-point upside into this game and should come in relatively low owned.
Harrison Barnes makes sense here as a cash-game option, as he posted a 20/8/5 stat line on the Wolves Tuesday and seemingly never gets priced above $7,000.
