Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/6)
MLB Dream
Tuesday presents a five-game DFS slate around the NBA, with a lot of very strong options in the $9,000 range. We also have plenty of very viable value options, especially at the center position.
Let’s break it all down, shall we?
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Magic @ Hawks preview
ATL -12, total: 219
There are a fair share of injuries in this game that we certainly need to be aware of. Starting with the Magic, both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross have already been ruled out, while James Ennis and Otto Porter will both remain out. Cole Anthony has been strong over his last two games, scoring 35.7 and 39.0 fantasy points during that span. And over his last five games, Anthony is averaging a healthy 5.92 seconds per touch, good for the second-most in the NBA during that stretch. He’s always been among the league leaders in that department and should continue to handle the ball quite a bit with Orlando missing so many players. And over the last two weeks of play, Anthony is sporting a strong 24.5% usage rate to go along with a 21% assist rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, Gary Harris could be in play at $4,400 with Ross, Porter and Ennis all out. He’s logged at least 26 minutes in each of his last four games. I also think that Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter are both still very solid options at their price tags.
For the Hawks, Danilo Gallinari will miss his fifth consecutive game with a sore foot, while De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish remain sidelined. However, John Collins returned to Atlanta’s lineup Sunday after a nine-game absence, though he was limited to just 21 minutes. Assuming Collins’ minutes remain limited here, there should still be minutes open for other wings in this game, though I don’t feel great paying nearly $5,000 for Solomon Hill with Collins back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Trae Young and Clint Capela are coming off huge games, though I prefer Young at $9,000 on DK over Capela at $9,100. This is a good spot for Young, facing an Orlando team that ranks 23rd against dimers, 28th against primary ball-handlers, 26th against scorers and 27th against crafty finishers, according to our advanced DVP tool. The Magic are also coughing up the seventh-highest field goal percentage to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (44.3%). And over the last 15 games, Orlando is inside the bottom-five in basketball when it comes to defensive rating. Finally, at $5,600 on DK, Kevin Huerter is still in play with so many Atlanta wings injured. And I know this is only a five-game slate, but paying nearly $8,000 for Bogdan Bogdanovic is a little frightening, especially with Collins back and possibly seeing an uptick in minutes.
Hornets @ Knicks preview
NYK -5, total: 208.5
Devonte' Graham is once again questionable with a quad injury that kept him out of Charlotte’s last two games. With Charlotte missing all the team’s primary ball handlers, Terry Rozier has dominated the usage of late. In fact, over his last five games, Rozier is averaging 92.0 touches per game, good for the fifth-most in the NBA during that span. And during that same five-game stretch, Rozier is averaging 24.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.8 steals and over 48 fantasy points per game. After scoring 50-plus fantasy points in three consecutive games, Rozier’s price is still at just $8,000 on DK and while New York plays at the slowest pace in the league and is among the game’s top defensive teams, the usage and volume Rozier will see is tough to ignore. And if Graham sits out again, you can feel better about taking a chance on Cody Martin at $4,100, who has logged 35 and 38 minutes over the last two games. Charlotte has also been starting rookie Vernon Carey as of late but in his last game, he picked up a few early fouls, which ultimately limited him to just seven minutes. We’ll see if he starts at center once again.
For New York, Julius Randle is now over $10,000 on DraftKings, but I still have interest, especially on such a small slate. I always talk about how the Hornets are an awful spot-up defense, coughing up the most points per game to spot-up shooters in the league (36.8). Randle, meanwhile, is quietly averaging a healthy 5.6 spot-up points per game on the year, good for the 10th-most in the NBA. Randle is playing huge minutes right now, while still ranking inside the top-12 in both touches and rebounding chances per game for the season. I also think you can look to Nerlens Noel at $4,500, who has been playing more minutes as of late. He is still sporting a solid 27% rebounding rate with Mitchell Robinson off the floor this season, while the Hornets are allowing the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year (16.78). I also don’t hate Reggie Bullock at $4,500, who is also logging huge minutes right now and is another player who spots up at a pretty decent rate.
Nets @ Pelicans preview
NOP -2.5, total: 233.5
James Harden is still out for the Nets, while Kevin Durant suffered a bruised thigh that will keep him out for at least this game. Enter Kyrie Irving, who will be a staple for a lot of DFS lineups Tuesday. With both Harden and Durant off the floor this season, Irving is sporting a 34.5% usage rate to go along with a 26% assist rate and 1.55 fantasy points per minute. This is a more than strong matchup, facing a Pelicans defense that is allowing the fourth-most points per possession off isolation this season (0.99), as well as the seventh-highest field goal percentage (43.5%). Meanwhile, Irving is averaging 5.2 isolation points per game on the year, the second-most in the league behind teammate Harden. And with Durant and Harden sidelined, Irving will continue to isolate at a very high rate. I also think Bruce Brown and Joe Harris are also firmly in play, while Blake Griffin is somewhat interesting. He’s started the last two games and played 26 minutes with Durant playing just four minutes before exiting due to injury last game.
Lonzo Ball has been back for two games but remains on a bit of a minutes limit, as he logged 27 last game. If we get word that his minutes limit will be lifted, I’d have some interest in getting to Ball at $7,000, though the main interest in this team lies with Zion Williamson, who is sporting a 33.4% usage rate and 23% rebounding rate over the last four weeks, while averaging 1.45 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. The Pelicans are finally using him more in the pick and roll as both a roll man and a ball-handler, which has led to an uptick in assists. That is important for this spot, as the Nets rank 28th against primary ball handlers, while also ranking dead last against point forwards. Steven Adams, meanwhile, isn’t always the most exciting play but his minutes have been up lately and is still just $5,200 on DK. He gets a good matchup against a Nets team that ranks 28th against rebounders, while no team in basketball is allowing more points per game to the post than Brooklyn (7.4).
Clippers @ Blazers preview
LAC -7, total: 223.5
Once again, Portland will be without Damian Lillard, who is still dealing with a hamstring injury. He’s missed the last two games and during that span, CJ McCollum is averaging 90.0 touches per game, up from his season average by over 20, while also averaging 7.6 minutes of possession per game during that span. And with Lillard off the floor over the course of the season, McCollum’s usage rate jumps up to 31.4%, averaging nearly 1.20 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, Anfernee Simons has logged 30 minutes in both games since Lillard has been out and while the fantasy production hasn’t been incredible, he’s still worth a shot at just $3,800 on DK. And with Jusuf Nurkic also resting on Tuesday night, Enes Kanter becomes a lot more trustworthy for fantasy. With both Lillard and Nurkic off the court, Kanter is averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a massive 49% rebounding rate. I also think Robert Covington is firmly in play at under $6,000 on DraftKings, too.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard returned after a four-game absence Sunday, scoring nearly 44 fantasy points in just 23 minutes of action. When Leonard and Paul George are both healthy, they are always fine plays but rarely incredibly exciting. And George is still priced for when Leonard was out, though $9,400 definitely isn’t an egregious price tag or anything like that. Adding to the strong value options at center, Ivica Zubac remains in play with Serge Ibaka out, though he isn’t my favorite of the centers we’ve discussed so far.
Timberwolves @ Kings preview
SAC -3.5, total: 239
This is obviously a juicy game for fantasy, featuring two of the worst defensive teams in all of basketball. While he’s been underwhelming in two straight games, you still have to love Karl-Anthony Towns here, facing a Kings defense that is coughing up the fourth-most points per game (6.2) and fifth-worst field goal percentage (51.6%) to the post this season. Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 4.5 post-up points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. I really wish we would get 27-30 minutes from D'Angelo Russell here, as the matchup is elite. Sacramento ranks 30th against primary ball handlers, 30th against dimers and 30th against scorers this season. And while I usually don’t love paying around $7,000 for Anthony Edwards with Russell active, this is a matchup that I’m willing to do so, especially on a smaller slate.
De'Aaron Fox has been fantastic lately, averaging 54.9 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. During that span, his usage rate is hovering around the 34% mark, as he continues to do more and more with the injuries to Sacramento’s frontcourt. This is another good spot for him to keep it going, Minnesota is surrendering the second-most points per game in transition this season (23.2), while Fox is averaging 5.7 transition points per game, good for the third-most in the league. The Timberwolves are also allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.1), which bodes well for a player like Buddy Hield, who is averaging 2.8 points per game off screens on the year, good for the seventh-most in basketball. Meanwhile, Hassan Whiteside continues to produce in the absences of Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley, but his minutes are still underwhelming, which makes him a very risky option at nearly $6,000 on DraftKings. Moe Harkless, meanwhile, continues to play more and more minutes, as he logged 34 minutes last game and has now started in each of the Kings last three games.
