NBA DFS Preview - First Look (12/31)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

We have seven games on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for December 31 | NBA DFS First Look

Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets

MIA -4, total: 217.0
Pace: MIA (28th), HOU (4th)

Situations to monitor:

Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Dewayne Dedmon, Duncan Robinson, P.J. Tucker, Udonis Haslem, KZ Okpala, Markieff Morris and Zylan Cheatham have been ruled out for the Heat. Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable.
Jae’Sean Tate, Garrison Mathews and D.J. Augustin have been ruled out for the Rockets. KJ Martin is listed as questionable.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -1.5, total: 215.5
Pace: ATL (18th), CLE (20th)

Situations to monitor:

John Collins, Delon Wright, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari, Gorgui Dieng, De’Andre Hunter, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Onyeka Okongwu, Solomon Hill and Jalen Johnson have been ruled out for the Hawks.
Darius Garland, Ricky Rubio and Collin Sexton are out for the Cavs. Jarrett Allen and Cedi Osman are listed as questionable.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -7, total: 210.0
Pace: LAC (16th), TOR (26th)

Situations to monitor:

Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Isaiah Hartenstein, Brandon Boston and Nicolas Batum are out for the Clippers. Reggie Jackson is listed as questionable.
Justin Champagnie, Goran Dragic and Isaac Bonga have been ruled out for the Raptors. Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Dalano Banton and Khem Birch are all listed as questionable.

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -6.5, total: 226.0
Pace: SAS (3rd), MEM (13th)

Situations to monitor:

Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for the Spurs while Lonnie Walker is listed as questionable.
Dillon Brooks, De’Anthony Melton, John Konchar, Ziaire Williams and Xavier Tillman have been ruled out for the Grizzlies.

New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NYK -6, total: 205.5
Pace: NYK (27th), OKC (11th)

Situations to monitor:

Julius Randle, Derrick Rose, Jericho Sims and Nerlens Noel have been ruled out for the Knicks. Evan Fournier is listed as questionable.
Josh Giddey, Darius Bazley, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aleksej Pokusevski and Tre Mann have been ruled out for the Thunder. Kenrich Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are listed as questionable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz

UTA -10.5, total: 222.0
Pace: MIN (7th), UTA (12th)

Situations to monitor:

Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell are listed as out for the Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Taurean Prince are all listed as questionable.
Mike Conley and Eric Paschall are listed as out for the Jazz. Joe Ingles is listed as questionable.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -5.5, total: 230.0
Pace: POR (19th), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington, Cody Zeller and Anfernee Simons are listed as out for the Blazers. Dennis Smith and Nassir Little are listed as questionable.
Anthony Davis, Kendrick Nunn and Rajon Rondo are listed as out for the Lakers. LeBron James is listed as probable, while Avery Bradley, Trevor Ariza and Kent Bazemore are listed as questionable.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.

In 100.3 minutes with D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns off the court this season, Anthony Edwards has posted a 35.3% usage rate

Edwards is currently listed as questionable so it is still up in the air whether he will be in play, but if active, you’re forced to look his way. Without any other elite offensive threats, Edwards has shown he can shoulder the load with his usage rate. Not only is the 35.3% rate elite, but he’s added a 19.6% assist rate and 1.47 DraftKings points per minute, making him a viable mid-tier option on the main slate.

Over his last two games, Malik Monk has averaged 20.0 points in 35.5 minutes per game

Monk has now started in back-to-back games, offering some much-needed offensive production for the Lakers after the loss of Anthony Davis. Assuming Monk draws a third consecutive start, it’s going to be hard to ignore him at $4,500 on DraftKings after scoring at least 15 points in three straight games while playing no less than 31 minutes.

With Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and Dewayne Dedmon off the court this season, Omer Yurtseven has posted a 23.1% rebounding rate

Yurtseven has been a bit of a revelation for the Heat frontcourt this season in the absence of the aforementioned players. He’s averaged nearly 1.1 DraftKings points per minute in this scenario and priced under $6,000 on DraftKings on Friday, he makes for another elite mid-tier target having topped 32 DK points in three of his last four outings.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

LeBron James ($12,000)
Trae Young ($11,500)
Damian Lillard ($10,900)
Russell Westbrook ($10,700)
Jarrett Allen ($10,500) — Questionable

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

LeBron James ($11,200)
Russell Westbrook ($9,800)
Trae Young ($9,700)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,400) — Questionable
Ja Morant ($9,300)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

LeBron James (1x)
Trae Young (1.1x)
Russell Westbrook (1.15x)
Damian Lillard (1.15x)
Ja Morant (1.15x)

With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday:

PG: Tyrese Maxey (42.25)
SG: RJ Hampton (26.75)
SF: Kyle Kuzma (44.00)
PF: Moritz Wagner (29.25)
C: Daniel Gafford (35.25)
G: James Harden (71.50)
F: Kevin Love (43.75)
UTIL: Wendell Carter (39.50)

Total: 332.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on FanDuel from Thursday.

PG: Brad Wanamaker (29.5)
PG: James Harden (64.8)
SG: Tyrese Maxey (37.9)
SG: Bradley Beal (52.2)
SF: Matisse Thybulle (27.3)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (62.9)
PF: Moritz Wagner (29.1)
PF: Kyle Kuzma (42.0)
C: Daniel Gafford (40.3)

Total: 386.00

The slate took a turn roughly two hours prior to lock, as the Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors game was postponed due to Denver not having enough bodies to play. This concentrated ownership a lot more with a three-game slate relative to a four-game slate, but there were still some gems to be had. Tyrese Maxey clocked in at under 30% on both sites, an impressive number on a slate so small, while the combination of four Wizards on FanDuel was a rare one that ultimately ended up as the winning strategy.

James Harden was the most popular spend-up and ended up being the highest-scoring player on the slate, so it came down to differentiating around him, just like the lineups above did.