Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have nine games on Friday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for December 3 | NBA DFS First Look
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
IND -5.5, total: 208.5
Pace: MIA (27th), IND (20th)
Situations to monitor:
- Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been ruled out for the Heat.
- T.J. McConnell and Justin Holiday have been ruled out for the Pacers.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
WAS -4.5, total: 209.0
Pace: CLE (23rd), WAS (22nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Collin Sexton and Cedi Osman remain out for the Cavs. Dean Wade is listed as doubtful.
- Deni Avdija is questionable for the Wizards.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -1.5, total: 214.0
Pace: PHI (30th), ATL (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter have been ruled out for the Hawks, while Cam Reddish is listed as questionable.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -8, total: 219.0
Pace: MIN (9th), BKN (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt are considered probable for the Timberwolves, while Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels are listed as questionable, and Patrick Beverley has been ruled out.
- Joe Harris has been ruled out for the Nets.
Orlando Magic @ Houston Rockets
HOU -3, total: 214.5
Pace: ORL (15th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Christian Wood is listed as probable for the Rockets, Kevin Porter is listed as questionable, and Jalen Green remains out.
- Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz remain out for the Magic.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -7.5, total: 218.0
Pace: NOP (19th), DAL (26th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable for the Mavericks.
- Josh Hart is listed as questionable for the Pelicans.
Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz
UTA -8.5, total: 213.5
Pace: BOS (24th), UTA (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Jaylen Brown has been ruled out for the Celtics.
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -6.5, total: 217.5
Pace: PHO (4th), GSW (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Devin Booker and Frank Kaminsky have been ruled out for the Suns.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -1.5, total: 215.5
Pace: LAC (11th), LAL (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis and LeBron James are listed as probable for the Lakers.
- Nicolas Batum remains out for the Clippers.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.
Per FTNDaily’s On/Off Splits tool, Jayson Tatum has averaged 12.9% more DraftKings points per game and 12.4% more FanDuel points per game with Jaylen Brown out this season.
Any jump over 10% when a player is already averaging over 40 fantasy points per game is rather significant. Tatum sees a 1.23% bump in usage rate (up to 33.48%) while averaging nearly five more points per game (28.89) over the nine games without Brown this season. The matchup with Utah is a difficult one but could be a reason why people shy away from Tatum at his price. Getting his upside at relatively suppressed ownership is an easy way to differentiate your lineups Friday.
The Washington Wizards rank 26th against rebounders this season, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP tool.
The Wizards have gotten brutalized by centers for a few seasons now and even though they’ve tightened their screws defensively this season, that fact hasn’t changed. Jarrett Allen now steps into an extremely exploitable matchup while averaging 18.5 rebounding chances per game (seventh highest) and 5.5 contested rebounds per game (third-highest mark in the NBA). With an expanded offensive role in the absence of Collin Sexton, Allen has a massive ceiling on Friday.
In four games without Bam Adebayo this season, Dewayne Dedmon has averaged 80.5% more DraftKings points per game.
With Adebayo sidelined for the next month or two, Dedmon should fill in as the interim center and he’s proven capable when called on in the past. He’s averaged 7.5 points, 9.25 rebounds, and 1.5 assists in 25.7 minutes per game over this stretch, nearly doubling his fantasy output on a nightly average basis. His price has risen to $4,800 on DraftKings, but with the ability to roster two centers, he’s firmly in play against a bigger Indiana frontcourt.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Steph Curry ($11,900)
- Luka Doncic ($11,800)
- James Harden ($11,500)
- Kevin Durant ($11,400)
- Russell Westbrook ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- Steph Curry ($10,800)
- Luka Doncic ($10,500)
- Anthony Davis ($10,500)
- James Harden ($10,400)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Steph Curry (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Anthony Davis (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1.05x)
With Friday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Thursday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Derrick Rose (28.00)
SG: Cameron Payne (31.50)
SF: Alec Burks (33.25)
PF: Jaren Jackson (42.75)
C: Santi Aldama (40.50)
G: De’Anthony Melton (35.00)
F: Julius Randle (56.00)
UTIL: Dejounte Murray (49.25)
Total: 316.25
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Legendary Layup ($100k to first) Thursday night.
PG: Immanuel Quickley (28.1)
PG: Zach LaVine (45.9)
SG: Khris Middleton (34.6)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (49.7)
SF: Scottie Barnes (39.4)
SF: Cameron Johnson (32.2)
PF: Julius Randle (52.4)
PF: Jaren Jackson (43.1)
C: Jakob Poeltl (40.8)
Total: 366.2
SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s NBA Jump Shot ($2k to first) Thursday night.
G: Fred VanVleet (52.50)
G: Zach LaVine (59.69)
G: Jrue Holiday (63.70)
F: Julius Randle (62.68)
F; DeMar DeRozan (62.50)
F: Scottie Barnes (59.81)
C: Deandre Ayton (51.35)
Total: 412.23
Thursday’s slate was thrown awry roughly 20 minutes prior to lock when the Bucks ruled Giannis Antetokounmpo out with knee soreness. You wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at the winning lineups, however, as Jrue Holiday was the only one to crack a winning lineup (SuperDraft), as the chalk ended up thoroughly disappointing. It was the close game between the Knicks and the Bulls that provided the most upside, with all three lineups having at least three pieces from this game. The more popular game, the Thunder/Grizzlies, was ruined by a literal historic blowout, as the Grizzlies beat the Thunder by over 70 points.
