NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/11)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA In-Season Tournament is over, and regular season basketball is back with a vengeance. We have 13 games Monday, most of them division matchups that give us an opportunity to evaluate games based on how teams played each other earlier in the season.

Having a previous game allows us to see how the market priced things last time given the situation and players available. That is invaluable information. We can see how the market values a good/bad schedule spot or a specific player’s participation or absence. Understand market perception is key to betting anything successfully. As for those NBA IST games, I’ve backed them out of model for the time being. Those games were played in a different style and with a different intensity. I’ll go back to them come playoff time, but I don’t expect us to see that high level of basketball for the next few months of the regular season. Now, don’t worry, there will be plenty of good games, just none involving a team intentionally fouling an opponent up 20-plus points in the fourth quarter.

Let’s dive into the night’s slate and see where I think value lies. Be sure to check out the video version of this as well on the FTNBets YouTube channel.

NBA Best Bets for Monday

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons

Current Line – Pacers -7, 247
My Projection – Pacers 129, Pistons 118
Key Injuries – Jalen Duren is out.

One of the hardest things to do when handicapping any sport is trying to understand the mindset of a team after or before a big event. This will be the first game for the Indiana Pacers after losing the NBA In-Season Tournament Championship Game in fairly depressing fashion. Indiana showed their inexperience. Players who are great shooters passed up open 3-pointers, ones they would normally shoot, because they were hesitant. The Lakers aggressive defensive scheme could have been attacked with penetration and backdoor cuts, but instead the Pacers struggled to get the ball to the 3-point line let alone below it. They shot terribly and generally didn’t look like themselves. So, do they wallow in their own pity and play terribly, or do they move forward and return to their early season form with a vengeance? I’m expecting the latter and my model agrees even though it has no idea this dynamic exists. Indiana was -9.5 playing their third game in four nights at home in that game, which they won 136-113. They are in Detroit, and I think the adjustment from that 9.5 down to 7 is not proper given this is not a bad schedule spot for Indiana and how poorly Detroit has played with their starting center, Jalen Duren. The Pistons have been even worse than we expected this season and without Duren, even worse. Cade Cunningham is still their leader and most important piece, but he needs a pick and roll partner and a big man who can help him near the rim. This is a great matchup for the Pacers and barring some sort of malaise carried over from the IST Final, they should win easily.

Bet

Indiana Pacers -7 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Current Line – Heat -3.5, 221
My Projection – Miami 112, Hornets 106
Key Injuries – Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and LaMelo Ball are out. Mark Williams is doubtful.

The Hornets were built around LaMelo Ball, but Ball has been out for a few weeks and will continue to be out for the near future. Without the straw that stirs their drink, the Hornets struggle mightily on the offensive end. Charlotte has played small lineups and tried to push pace to create easier opportunities, but against better defensive teams and teams that can control the pace of the game, points have been few and far between for the Hornets. Terry Rozier is on the downside of his career and has always been a better off ball guard, not a point guard. The rest of the players are generally athletic wings who are used to turning good passes into good baskets, but that’s tough to do without some who can make the right passes. Monday, they face a Miami Heat team that profiles as a good defensive team that controls pace. Of course, Bam Adebayo makes the Heat defense the best it can be, but they still have a good system and plenty of good defenders without him. Tyler Herro would make Miami’s offense better with his shooting and ability to push the ball. Without Herro, Miami has played slow, griding out possessions for the best shot. All of this adds up to one bet for me tonight, a Hornets team total under. I expect the Heat to keep the game slow and be able to suffocate Charlotte in the half court. Barring an outlier shooting night from beyond the arc, I struggle to see how the Hornets score 109-plus points.

Bet

Charlotte Hornets Team Total Under 108.5 (-105, BetMGM)

Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks

Current Line – Nuggets -2.5, 242
My Projection – Nuggets 122, Hawks 118
Key Injuries – Jalen Johnson is out.

This is a tough matchup to handicap for the full game. Both teams are on three-game losing streaks and struggling to adjust to injuries to some of their key starters. Trae Young has been in and out of the lineup as has Jamaal Murray. It’s tough to play each night with a different point guard, especially one who may not be 100 percent. At first glance, you may think laying only 2.5 points with the defending champion would be an easy bet, but the Nuggets have been much worse on the road than at home and worse than they were on the road in past seasons. This is also the first of a back-to-back, and the Nuggets are notorious for trying to rest stars in the second half of those games so they are fresh for the game the following night. All that in mind, it’s still not enough points to back the Hawks. Atlanta profiles as a better team to me without Trae Young who has shot poorly and held back the defense. There is a bet I do like, but it’s a wager that will be decided early. Nikola Jokic does something almost no one else, star or otherwise, does in the NBA. He plays all 12 minutes of the first quarter. It gives Denver a big advantage in those first 12 minutes, especially in the 3-4 minutes he faces a team’s second unit. To no surprise, Denver is one of the better first-quarter teams in the NBA. Atlanta is one of the worst first-quarter teams and their backups are not well equipped to stop the reigning MVP. I’ll back the Nuggets on the moneyline in the first quarter. You can play -0.5 if you like, but the moneyline will give us a push if the first quarter ends in a tie and I don’t think the price for -0.5 is better by enough to sell that half point.

Bet

Denver Nuggets 1Q ML (-122, DraftKings Sportsbook)

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Rockets -9, 223
My Projection – Rockets 115, Spurs 105
Key Injuries – None

In general, it’s better to bet overs in games with big margins of victory. 154 games this NBA season have had a final margin of victory of 10 or more points and overs are 85-69, 55% in those games. That’s not a good enough record to bet on them blindly, but it’s a good thing to remember when handicapping games that may end in a blowout. Despite that, I’m betting under the total in a game that I also have the Rockets winning by 10 points. The Houston Rockets have the second-slowest pace in the NBA and second lowest at home. Ime Udoka has changed the style of the team to maximize defensive performance and limit turnovers. That means a slow, grinding style that relies on efficient half-court basketball. That style works with the roster they have. Alperen Sengun is a great passer and good player to be the hub of an effective half-court offense. The roster is full of long, athletic players that understand Udoka’s scheme and have played with a high intensity, especially at home. They have won five games at home by 18 or more points, and unders were 4-1 in those matchups. Houston does a great job of controlling tempo and forcing their opponents to play their style as well. The Spurs are one of the faster teams in the league, but they’ve been slowed down against teams with a more deliberate approach. They’re a young team without a true point guard, so unless the other team is turning the ball over or not getting back on defense after misses, it can be hard for them to play as fast as they’d like. My projections have this game at 220, so I’ll happily bet under 223.

Bet

Rockets/Spurs Under 223 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook)

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder

Current Line – Thunder -12.5, 234
My Projection – Thunder 124, Jazz 108
Key Injuries – Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler and Luguentz Dort are out. John Collins is questionable.

Last season, we expected the Utah Jazz to tank hard after trading away Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. Instead, Utah was the surprise of the early season and competed for a Play-In Tournament spot while Lauri Markkanen played well enough to win the award for Most Improved Player. The Jazz have started the year poorly and are now dealing with injuries to several key players. Jordan Clarkson just returned from injury, but Markannen, Walker Kessler and John Collins are either out Monday or in danger of not playing. With all due respect to guys who have done well for us in the prop market, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio are not the type of players that would be playing big minutes for a title contender. Perhaps Utah will start the tank we thought they would next season because tonight will not make things any better. Similar to the New York Knicks, the Oklahoma City Thunder play with great intensity every night regardless of their opponent. The Thunder have generally had a tough schedule but are 14-7 with a 5-0 record against the Chicago Bulls (twice), Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, and Portland Trail Blazers. OKC won those five games with an average score of 124-99. Do I expect them to win by 25 here? No, but I do expect them to give 100% even though they are much better than the Utah Jazz. With that in mind, there are two bets I like. I’m going to lay 12.5 points with the Thunder and play the Utah Jazz team total under as well. OKC has won games by big margins all season, even against good teams, so even though I hate laying this many points it’s warranted. The Jazz have scored over 110 points in just two of their last nine games and both went over by one basket. There is not enough talent on this team to create space and good scoring opportunities especially against a young, athletic team like the Thunder.

Bets

Utah Jazz Team Total Under 110.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook or BetMGM)
Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 (-108, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Not For Noops

Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic -2, 225

For starters, we need to know if Evan Mobley or Jalen Suggs is playing. The Cavaliers are markedly better when they have all four of their key players. They need Mobley to guard either Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner. Unfortunately, Jarrett Allen cannot guard both. Suggs is one of the best guards Orlando has and a leader for their defense. If both are in, I might grab an under here, but nothing for now. Check the FTN Bets Discord; I’ll add the under there if I bet it.

Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers -11.5, 242.5

Joel Embiid is questionable, and I’d guess that he’s out, so I’m not laying 11.5 with the 76ers. I’m also never taking points on a full game spread with the Washington Wizards, who are clearly tanking. My projections like the under, but never bet unders in Wizards games. So, basically, I’m not allowed to bet on this game, and I will not bet on this game.

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks -4.5, 221.5

Jalen Brunson is listed as questionable, but Tom Thibodeau says he’s going to play. If that’s the case, this line is close to my projections. Mitchell Robinson is out and I’m curious to see how that impacts the Knicks who don’t have another big man like him. I may add some Jakob Poeltl overs because he’ll be the main beneficiary of Robinson’s absence. Check out the FTNBets Discord #nba-plays channel later to see if I play any of those.

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies +2.5, 226.5

This game came out close to what my model is predicting, and I’m happy to avoid games with the Grizzlies. The market rating for Memphis may finally be too low. Even a team playing as poorly as the Grizzlies can be underrated and I think we’re at that point. The Mavericks are missing several key players and have a game at home tomorrow against the Los Angeles Lakers. If I had to bet anything, I’d actually be on the Memphis moneyline, but I don’t have to do anything I don’t want to do and neither do you, so no bets.

Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans -3, 222

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are listed as questionable, which is why the Pelicans are favored. If both are out, I might be interested in the Timberwolves as bigger underdogs and if both are in, I might be interested in the Pelicans as shorter favorites. Minnesota has the bigs to slow down New Orleans, but as I’ve written here before, I’m not excited to bet against a full healthy Pelicans team. Nothing for now, but I may post something later in the FTNBets Discord for this game.

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks -11.5, 233

The Bucks were 9.5-point favorites over the Bulls in Milwaukee and 10.5 point favorites in Chicago. The Bulls covered both of those numbers by a point or two, but the market is still happy to make the Bucks even larger favorites. My projections were close to this number. Chicago has been better without LaVine, and I think they can cover this number, but I’m not ready to bet on them yet. 

Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings -4.5, 236

Brooklyn has played good basketball for the past two weeks and my model has this closer to 2/2.5, but it’s a bad matchup for the Nets. Sacramento’s losses have come against teams with more size, better bigs, and players that attack the rim. That profile does not match the Nets. If Brooklyn gets sucked into running with Sacramento, it’s going to be a rough night for them. Lean Nets, might add some player props on them in the FTNBets Discord, but nothing for now.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers -13, 220

I almost bet the under here, but this is possibly a blowout and Portland has pushed pace late in blowouts. That means it should be over or pass, so pass. As for the spread, it’s hard to make a good number for Portland given how few games they’ve played with the same starting lineup. I expect them to lose by a lot, but 13 points is a lot and that’s how many we have to lay with the Clippers. None of this sounds fun and most importantly, none of it looks like value to me, so I’ll pass.