The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/15)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Cubs (+172), Phillies (-205)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Ranger Suárez (L)

Three things to know

• The Cubs rank 18th in team wOBA in the last month with a .320 mark.
• The whiffs for the Cubs? They are high, logging a 27.9% rate.
• The Phillies have been mediocre at the plate, posting .318 wOBA.

Best bets: Ranger Suárez has been excellent, and I do expect the Phillies to bounce back.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Yankees (-184), Orioles (+154)
Total: 9.5 runs
Nestor Cortes Jr. (L) vs. John Means (L)

Three things to know

• Can Nestor Cortes Jr. continue his recent run of excellent form?
• The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .321 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate.
• The Orioles have ugly marks of only a .320 wOBA.

Best bets: The Yankees continue to bop the baseball and are now in a three-way tie for the Wild Card. Take them again.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets betting breakdown

Cardinals (+146), Mets (-174)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jon Lester (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

Three things to know

• Tylor Megill has owned right-handed bats this year, and the Cardinals are a heavy righty team.
• The Cardinals are about as average as it gets — a .314 wOBA and .169 ISO in the last month.
• Over the same time frame, the Mets have logged a .322 wOBA and .172 ISO.

Best bets: Can the Cardinals pull off the sweep? I like a low-scoring affair.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Rockies (+168), Braves (-200)
Total: 8.5 runs
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs. Huascar Ynoa (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves have been on fire at the plate, posting a .325 wOBA and .209 ISO in the last month.
• The Rockies have been solid as well, logging a .328 wOBA and .211 ISO.
• Can the Rockies stay hot away from Denver?

Best bets: I actually like the juice on the road Rockies here — take the underdog here.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Astros (-210), Rangers (+176)
Total: 8.5 runs
José Urquidy (R) vs. Kohei Arihara (R)

Three things to know

• Kohei Arihara has allowed 3.26 HR/9 to same-sided righties this season.
• Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .343 wOBA and 18.8% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• The Rangers are woefully bad at the plate. They own a .317 wOBA and .149 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: This one could get ugly — take the ‘Stros in a F3/F5 bet. Also, some righty homer props could be a lot of fun.

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Angels (+176), White Sox (-210)
Total: 8.5 runs
Janson Junk (R) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)

Three things to know

• The young righty Junk has struggled, giving up 1.56 HR/9 in Double-A this season.
• The White Sox have posted a .336 wOBA in the last 30 days.
• What happened to the Angels? Ugh — a .288 wOBA and .155 ISO are nasty marks.

Best bets: This could blow up fast — take the Sox in a F3/F5 bet and look for some homer props here, too.

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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Athletics (-142), Royals (+120)
Total: 8.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Mike Minor (L)

Three things to know

• Oakland continues to find new and inventive ways to blow leads. What’s in store Wednesday?
• The Athletic offense has disappeared — L30: .306 wOBA, .164 ISO.
• The Royals haven’t been much better, logging a .317 wOBA and .159 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: The UNDER — these offenses stink.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Padres (-102), Giants (-116)
Total: 8.5 runs
Joe Musgrove (R) vs. Dominic Leone (R)

Three things to know

• The Padres have been the league’s worst offense in the last month, logging a .265 wOBA and .126 ISO.
• The Giants have relied on an excellent offense, recording a .336 wOBA and .206 ISO.
• Dominic Leone has been great at the opener role — can he keep it up?

Best bets: These Padres are cooked — take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+280), Dodgers (-350)
Total: 8.0 runs
Merrill Kelly (R) vs. Julio Urías (L)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers have really struggled at the plate — can they turn things around?
• The Dodgers have posted only a .296 wOBA and 23.0% strikeout rate in the last month.
• The Diamondbacks have been really bad lately — in the last month, they have logged a .299 wOBA and 23.7% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Especially with Merrill Kelly coming back from COVID-19, it’s hard to bet against the Dodgers — take them in a F3/F5.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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