Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Pirates (+142), Nationals (-168)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Anderson (L) vs. Patrick Corbin (L)
This was indeed a nail-biter to open the series, as the Nationals clipped the Pirates in a pretty well-pitched game. Tuesday could be an exception — while Anderson has been solid with better than a strikeout per inning, Patrick Corbin has been truly dreadful. In 62.1 innings pitched, the southpaw has posted an ugly 17.6% strikeout rate, tattooed for 1.73 HR/9.
Best bets: Like some head scratchers Monday, I’m perplexed why the Nats are favored. I love a Pirates F5 or moneyline bet.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Yankees (+102), Blue Jays (-120)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (L)
While the Blue Jays have moved away from Dunedin, Fla., Buffalo has embraced the Blue Jays as their team (for the time being) and they have been still crushing at Sahlen Field. Not only do they get the gift of a pretty small park, they get a 10 MPH wind blowing out as well. Let there be runs.
Best bets: The OVER. Nine is a lot of runs, but I think this one will get slammed.
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
Orioles (+154), Indians (-184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)
There are some teams that have some truly head-scratching options within their starting rotations. The Orioles are one of those stories. Matt Harvey continues to get consistently obliterated day in and day out — this season, spanning 54.2 innings pitched, Harvey’s numbers read like a typo — a 7.41 ERA, a 4.91 FIP, and 1.65 HR/9. The Indians are not a good offense, but they may look like one here.
Best bets: This where I hope that you have FanDuel for legal betting in your state, because a same-game parlay makes too much sense. I love the Indians F5, moneyline and home run props here.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Cubs (+128), Mets (-152)
Total: 8.5 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)
This seems like a monster mismatch on paper — Alec Mills returns to the Cub rotation, and it has not been a good season thus far. Mills recorded nearly a flat strikeout-to-walk ratio this season (that’s not a good thing), allowing 1.52 HR/9. And while the Mets have been jokingly referred to (myself included) as a Triple-A lineup, as Pete Alonso and others have returned, this team has quietly clicked its way to being eighth in the league in offense over the last two weeks.
Best bets: Like the game we just discussed, slam the Mets here. F5, moneyline, home run props, all of them work.
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves
Red Sox (-102), Braves (-116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Tucker Davidson (L)
Two of the league’s best offenses matchup against one another, and these two southpaws are having interesting seasons. Eduardo Rodríguez has struggled — over 62.2 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 6.03 ERA. On the flip side, rookie Tucker Davidson has been a great option for the Braves — he’s logged a 1.85 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP this year — and he attacks a Red Sox offense that’s struggled over the last two weeks to the tune of a wRC+ mark of 81.
Best bets: I’m probably making the easy bet here and firing a things in on the Braves.
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Rangers (+122), Astros (-144)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (R)
Kyle Gibson has struggled with striking out a ton of hitters, but he has been truly incredible this season. Over 71.2 innings pitched, Gibson rocks a 3.40 ERA and 51.2% ground-ball rate and has been an elite arm. He will be tested in this outing — the Astros have posted a 152 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Lance McCullers Jr. is returning from the Injured List and he’s been equally brilliant in 2021.
Best bets: I like the UNDER here. These are two pitchers throwing the baseball really well, but keep in mind that McCullers may only go 4-5 innings.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Tigers (+114), Royals (-134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Casey Mize (R) vs. Mike Minor (L)
Two middle-of-the-pack offenses meet in Kansas City Tuesday, and Monday, while it was a 10-3 win, it was a costly one — starter Matthew Boyd and reliever Alex Lange left the game due to injury. Hopefully, they won’t be out for too long. Casey Mize, inside of the other dugout, has been a really good pitcher — perhaps taking the biggest leap of any second-year pitcher. He’s limited batters to a .209 batting average and his strength has been limiting opposing hitters with a 50.5% ground-ball rate.
Best bets: This is where we slam together a Tigers bet — unfortunately, a same-game parlay over at FanDuel doesn’t make a ton of sense with Boyd strikeouts as he isn’t whiffing anyone. But a F5 Tigers or moneyline bet is juicy.
Tampa Bay Royals at Chicago White Sox
Rays (-102), White Sox (-116)
Total: 8.0 runs
Shane McClanahan (L) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)
As we take a deep dive into this matchup, it’s probably bit more lopsided or one-sided than we realize. The Chicago White Sox have been a dominant offensive force against lefties, ranking in the top-five in nearly every one of them. The Rays? They have stunk in that split, and they really strike out a ton (second-most).
Best bets: The Sox have been devastating against left-handed pitching — they have won 24 games in a row against southpaws.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Reds (-108), Brewers (-108)
Total: 9.0 runs
Luis Castillo (R) vs. Brett Anderson (L)
We bashed Luis Castillo, and rightfully so, for several months. But man, this dude has been straight cooking for his last few turns — a 3.09 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in his last 11.2 innings — show that there may be a glimmer of hope for some juiciness after all. The Brewers? This really is a horrifically bad rotation in spots, including tonight’s arm in Brett Anderson.
Best bets: Same information as Monday. While they have improved recently at the dish, they still aren’t a good team, and Castillo has shown tons of improvement recently. Bet the Reds.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Marlins (+102), Cardinals (-120)
Total: 7.5 runs
Trevor Rogers (L) vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (L)
The Cardinals are not a very good offense, but they have beaten on left-handed pitching this season. This will be an interesting matchup, as the flame-throwing Rogers has been outstanding in 2021, but will have his work cut out for him. Meanwhile, Kim has really struggled so far this season — he returns from a back injury to take the mound, but this is a fairly soft landing spot.
Best bets: I don’t love any arm coming back from injury. This line feels too low — take the OVER.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Padres (-148), Rockies (+126)
Total: 11.5 runs
Yu Darvish (R) vs. Chi Chi González (R)
Chi Chi González has been arguably the worst pitcher in all of baseball this season. By any metric (ERA, FIP, swinging-strike rate), he is truly at the bottom of the barrel, but because of their overall lack of options, the Rockies keep punting him out there. Nearly all hitters blast the righty as well, so expect a massive output from San Diego a day after they were shut out by Austin Gomber for the first eight frames.
Best bets: Don’t fight it — roll with all the bets on the Padres.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Angels (+108), Athletics (-126)
Total: 8.0 runs
Andrew Heaney (L) vs. Frankie Montas (R)
Over the last two seasons, it is a bit odd to note, but sinkerballer Frankie Montas has been obliterated by the home run ball. He’s allowed a mark of 1.66 HR/9 the last two years, and he truly just has not seemed quite right since an 80-game PED suspension. Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney has been on top of his game recently, and his 28.7% strikeout rate shows he’s been a pretty valuable rotation option.
Best bets: They lost one Monday, but this Angels team is clicking at the right time, especially offensive. Expect them to continue to stay hot tonight — and bet the OVER.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillies (+152), Dodgers (-180)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zach Eflin (R) vs. Julio Urías (L)
Quick — among qualified starting pitchers, who has the lowest walk rate this year? If you guess the starter for the Philadelphia Phillies, Zach Eflin (3.6%), you nailed it. And Eflin will certainly need to showcase that command and control against one of the league’s best offenses — and that it he may not get a ton of help from his own team. The Phillies have a 26.5% strikeout rate against lefties this year.
Best bets: This was a tight, low-scoring affair, and I’d expect more of the same tonight. Bet the UNDER.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Twins (-136), Mariners (+116)
Total: 8.0 runs
J.A. Happ (L) vs. Chris Flexen (R)
This game feels like a run-scoring affair is coming — J.A. Happ has truly been disgusting as of late, and his season-long mark of a 5.75 ERA and 5.09 FIP have been downright dreadful. On the flip side, Chris Flexen has also been a mere mortal on the bump, and the Twins have been nasty at the plate — they are seventh in baseball in team wOBA over the last 14 days.
Best bets: Neither pitcher has been on their form lately, and the Twins have been on fire. Smash the OVER.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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