Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory: ADP Pockets (2/2)

We’ve all been there. Your hand is on the mouse, but your body is frozen.

You stare at the computer screen. Three names are staring right back at you. You could make a case for any of those players. But which one? You shift your focus to the top left of the screen where suddenly the clock is at 5 seconds. Huh? You swear it was at 30 seconds just a moment ago. You can literally hear the countdown coming out of your laptop speakers as the clock hits 3…2…1.

You press down on the mouse and instantly regret it. “Ugh, I definitely should have taken (insert one of the three names here).” You skip the denial and anger sections of the five stages of grief and instantly move to the bargaining phase. Then comes depression, and finally acceptance that you made a poor draft choice. 

My goal is to make sure the above situation never plays out for you on draft day. We want to feel confident in our selections. We want to have a plan. And if the draft throws us a curveball (pun intended), we want to feel confident sifting through players who hover around the same ADP (Average Draft Placement).

The people who hastily make a selection between three players with one second on the clock are typically the unprepared managers. That’s not what we do here at FTNFantasy. Whether you’re drafting in person or online, a manager who exudes confidence and displays conviction is a manager to fear. You want to be that manager. And in order to make that happen, we need to discuss players who are tripping people up and causing confusion and uncertainty in drafts.

Below, I’ll highlight a handful of players at different ADP pockets and which players I’m targeting and fading in 2024. Draft clock be damned.

ADP Pockets

Let’s examine a trio of players appearing inside the top 50, top 100 and top 200. Last week, I focused on mostly hitters, with one group of starting pitchers. Let’s shift our focus more toward pitching this week to make up some ground.

Top 50 ADP Pocket

George Kirby (SEA), Pablo López (MIN), Zac Gallen (ARI)

Kirby (37 ADP), López (39) and Gallen (40) are all hovering around that third tier of pitchers coming off the board in the first several rounds. So who’s the best option?

Let’s review their 2023 seasons:

• Kirby (31 starts): 13-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 172 K
• López (32 starts): 11-8, 3.66 ERA, 1.15 ERA, 234 K
• Gallen (34 starts): 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 220 K

All three of these arms were durable and ate innings. That’s a draw for me. Kirby’s ratios are the best, mostly due to his impossibly low walk rate (0.90 BB/9).

Our own Eric Cross was all over that this past week:

Unfortunately, Kirby’s strikeout stuff isn’t quite on the López/Gallen level. There’s a tradeoff if you’re willing to pull the trigger on Kirby.

López introduced a sweeper to his arsenal last season and was an absolute strikeout machine. In fact, his 3.66 ERA was a bit unlucky, according to advanced metrics (3.28 xFIP). That probably has to do with a career-high .313 BABIP allowed. If López sees even a bit of positive regression and maintains the swing-and-miss stuff, I’m very intrigued.

Finally, as someone who watches nearly every Gallen start, he’s unbelievable at mixing up his pitches – and he throws a ton of them. The result? One of the most uncomfortable at-bats you could possibly have.

My issue with Gallen is he threw a career-high 210 innings last season and then went on a deep playoff run with the D-backs. He started to run out of gas toward the end of the regular season and never quite looked like first-half Zac Gallen once the postseason began.

I’m not “out” on Gallen, but I have my reservations. In large-field contests where you’re shooting for a top finish, I believe López provides the best “stuff + upside combo.” I see double-digit victories, a ton of strikeouts and slight room for improvement in the ratios (which weren’t bad to begin with). It doesn’t hurt that he’s not necessarily a household name. If his name was “Pencer Trider,” he might have cracked the top 25 in ADP.

Verdict: Pablo López

Top 100 Pocket

Raisel Iglesias (ATL), David Bednar (PIT), Jordan Romano (TOR)

Let’s take our first look at a group of relievers going in the same pocket. Iglesias (75), Bednar (77) and Romano (82) are bunched together and have proven track records in the ninth inning.

Here’s their production from 2023:

• Iglesias (58 games): 5-4, 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 68 K, 33 SV
• Bednar (66 games): 3-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 80 K, 39 SV
• Romano (59 games): 5-7, 2.90 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 72 K, 36 SV

Iglesias missed more than a month to begin the season and still was near the other closers in almost all categories. I guess it helps to be on the Braves.

I’m not one to predict year-to-year ratios for closers. Might as well flip a coin. The name of the game is strikeouts and save opportunities. When we draft closers, ratios are a luxury. We want security and the ability to rack up numbers in a scarce category (saves).

One might expect the Braves (101.5 over/under wins) and Blue Jays (86.5) to provide more opportunities than the Pirates (72.5), and you’re probably right. But there’s something to be said about being a closer on a “bad” team. See, the thing is, when you lose, you lose. But when you win, you typically don’t win by much – meaning guys like Bednar are often coming in with a 4-3 lead. The Braves and Blue Jays will slug their way to some big wins, and Iglesias/Romano will be blowing bubbles in the bullpen (oof, talk about some serious alliteration).

If we solely look at last year’s numbers, Bednar takes the cake. I’m a long-term believer here, because Romano struggled with some control issues at times, and hitters were really slamming Iglesias when they made contact. If all team environments were equal, Bednar would be the easy choice. He might give up more homers than last year’s miniscule 3.8% rate, but he’s the most reliable option. I’m not concerned about the Pirates’ win total. I’m also not concerned about the newly signed Aroldis Chapman. He seemed just fine in the eighth inning last season. Because he’s still on the Pirates, I think we’re getting a slight discount on Bednar, all things considered.

Verdict: David Bednar

Top 200 Pocket

Aaron Civale (TB), Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), Lucas Giolito (BOS)

I’m expanding just outside the top 200 for this one, because I feel like it’s an interesting and potentially polarizing group. We have the latest Tampa Bay Rays project in Civale (206), a post-hype sleeper in Pfaadt (208) and everyone’s favorite (eye roll), Giolito (212).

Here’s how these guys performed last season:

• Civale (23 starts): 7-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 116 K
• Pfaadt (18 starts): 3-9, 5.72 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 94 K
• Giolito (33 starts): 8-15, 4.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 204 K

I’m going to be honest. Throw out the 2023 statistics. Based off last year, you might throw up in your mouth at the thought of drafting Giolito or Pfaadt. And I doubt anyone is losing sleep the night before draft day wondering if Civale will get sniped from their team.

I believe people will be tempted to draft Civale simply because the Rays are incredible at getting the most out of their pitchers. The problem is, Civale didn’t show much last year in Tampa after being acquired midseason. He posted a 5.36 ERA across 10 starts with MLB’s “Fixer Upper” franchise. His stuff is weak (career 8.10 K/9 rate) and he’s mostly a fly-ball pitcher. Civale’s best-case scenario is a poor man’s Zach Eflin without as many strikeouts. Add in concerns about innings (the Rays aren’t known to extend their starters) and job security, and I’m out on the righty. Civale is in the rotation for now, but with Shane Baz nearing a return, and the Jeffrey Springs/Drew Rasmussen duo expected back near midseason, who’s to say Civale will even be starting come July/August?

Next up is Pfaadt. He was everyone’s favorite prospect last year. And when he finally got the call, he was, well, awful. So awful that he was sent down, brought up again, sent down and finally brought up again. By that time, most of the community had given up. If you look closer, however, you could see signs of life late. In two of his final three regular season starts, he entered the sixth with a shutout before getting the hook. Then, he was lights out for Arizona in the postseason.

Despite facing the Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies (twice) and Rangers, Pfaadt put together a nifty 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP with 26 K in 22 IP on the biggest of stages. He even fared well in a Game 7 on the road in a seemingly impossible place to win (Citizens Bank Park).

Pfaadt is behind Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez in the rotation. But he should have plenty of leash this year on a D-backs team expected to compete. Pfaadt’s pure stuff is better than the aforementioned trio. Pitching coach Brent Strome is the best in the business and had Pfaadt make some tweaks toward the end of last year. If we get anything like the Pfaadt we saw in September/October, this is a screaming value.

That was a lot of words for Civale/Pfaadt. So let me keep it short with Giolito. I’m not doing it. If I’m taking a pitcher beyond the top 200 in ADP, I’m shooting for a post-hype sleeper who could make a major difference on my roster.

Verdict: Brandon Pfaadt

As always, hit us up in the FTN Fantasy Baseball Discord with questions. There’s already some buzz in there, and it’s certain to heat up in the next few months. Perhaps I’ll change my tune by the time March rolls around on some of these tough decisions. Only one way to find out – join the Discord!