Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory: ADP Pockets (1/19)

We’ve all been there. Your hand is on the mouse, but your body is frozen.

You stare at the computer screen. Three names are staring right back at you. You could make a case for any of those players. But which one? You shift your focus to the top left of the screen where suddenly the clock is at 5 seconds. Huh? You swear it was at 30 seconds just a moment ago. You can literally hear the countdown coming out of your laptop speakers as the clock hits 3…2…1.

You press down on the mouse and instantly regret it. “Ugh, I definitely should have taken (insert one of the three names here).” You skip the denial and anger sections of the five stages of grief and instantly move to the bargaining phase. Then comes depression, and finally acceptance that you made a poor draft choice. 

My goal is to make sure the above situation never plays out for you on draft day. We want to feel confident in our selections. We want to have a plan. And if the draft throws us a curveball (pun intended), we want to feel confident sifting through players who hover around the same ADP (Average Draft Placement).

The people who hastily make a selection between three players with one second on the clock are typically the unprepared managers. That’s not what we do here at FTNFantasy. Whether you’re drafting in person or online, a manager who exudes confidence and displays conviction is a manager to fear. You want to be that manager. And in order to make that happen, we need to discuss players who are tripping people up and causing confusion and uncertainty in drafts.

Below, I’ll highlight a handful of players at different ADP pockets and which players I’m targeting and fading in 2024. Draft clock be damned.

ADP Pockets

Let’s examine a trio of players appearing inside the top 50, top 100 and top 200. We begin with perhaps the toughest decision – the top 50.

Top 50 ADP Pocket

Corey Seager (TEX), Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Francisco Lindor (NYM)

The decision between Corey Seager (19 ADP), Elly De La Cruz (22) and Francisco Lindor (23) is the exact type of conundrum I described above. These are three players, all shortstops/middle infielders, who could be building blocks for your team.

But which name should you click when you’re on the clock?

Let’s review their 2023 seasons, with the five NFBC hitting categories in mind:

• Seager (119 games): .327 AVG, 33 HR, 96 RBI, 88 R, 2 SB
• De La Cruz (98 games): .235 AVG, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 67 R, 35 SB
• Lindor (160 games): .254 AVG, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 108 R, 31 SB

The first thing that stands out is the discrepancy in games. De La Cruz played 98 games, but it’s not his fault he was called up in June. Otherwise, he stayed relatively healthy. Seager played 119 games but missed several stints with injuries. One lasted over a month between April and May. The other lasted a few weeks between July and August. Lindor played virtually every game for the Mets last year and now has back-to-back seasons with 160+ games played. We’re not in the business of predicting injuries here, but it has to at least be considered in Seager’s case.

The next thing we’ll look at is raw stats. It’s simply incredible how valuable Seager was despite missing 43 games. He likely would have produced north of 40 homers, well over 100 RBIs and well over 100 runs without any missed time. That would have eclipsed the all-around impressive year from Lindor.

However, Seager is a zero in the stolen base category. He doesn’t run and never will. On the other hand, Seager (.292 career hitter) is a much better pure hitter than Lindor (.274). Seager’s power number appear to be sustainable since his move to Texas, though it’s concerning that his 2022 season produced 33 homers with a .245 AVG, whereas last year he thumped 33 round-trippers with an eye-popping .327 average.

I’m in the camp that Seager’s average will plummet a bit. His 53.2% hard-hit rate doesn’t seem sustainable, along with his .340 BABIP. That means we’ll need similar HR/RBI numbers to justify Seager’s spot in the top 20 since he’s not stealing any bases. Maybe it’s just me, but I want to be ahead of the curve. Drafting Seager inside the top 20 feels like chasing to me.

So what about Lindor? Most people would say he’s fallen below expectations since his move to New York. Here’s his three-year trend:

• 2021 (125 games): .230/20 HR/63 RBI/73 R/10 SB
• 2022 (161 games): .270/26 HR/107 RBI/98 R/16 SB
• 2023 (160 games): .254/ 31 HR/98 RBI/108 R/31 SB

Last year, Lindor produced first-round value in drafts. If you look at his advanced statistics, he’s been rather consistent across the board. So I’m not concerned about regression like I am with Seager’s average. His floor is a .250 AVG, 25-plus homers, 95-plus RBIs and close to 100 runs. The stolen base factor is what catches my eye. Lindor clearly felt comfortable running more with the new MLB rules. If he’s willing to swipe 30 bags again, that provides a ton of extra value.

Lastly, let’s examine De La Cruz. He’s one of the most exciting prospects in the game. His power/speed combo and young age makes him an attractive option. I’m not willing to take him this early, though. He was absolutely awful in the back half of his rookie season. From Aug. 23 onward, he totaled just two HR. He strikes out a ton. I don’t see him all of a sudden becoming a .280 hitter. He’ll crush some homers, score some runs and steal some bases. But the rest of his profile concerns me in a way that Seager and Lindor don’t. Stolen bases are easier to find nowadays, and that’s the one area De La Cruz has a major edge over his counterparts.

Verdict: Francisco Lindor

Top 100 Pocket

Jesús Luzardo (MIA), Kyle Bradish (BAL), Joe Ryan (MIN)

Let’s shift to a group of pitchers who provided a ton of value last season in later rounds. In fact, you could consider all three of them “breakout” pitchers, hence why they’re going just inside the top 100 in ADP this year.

Those pitchers are Jesús Luzardo (86), Kyle Bradish (90) and Joe Ryan (93).

Here’s their production from 2023:

• Luzardo: 10-10, 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 208 K
• Bradish: 12-7, 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 168 K
• Ryan: 11-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 197 K

The record advantage goes to Bradish, and I’d expect that to remain steady heading into 2024 with his win equity in Baltimore. The righty’s 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP also give him a pretty distinct advantage in those areas. I believe that’s sustainable as well, especially with Luzardo’s bugaboo being too many walks. It’s not like Ryan is prime Kershaw at preventing runs either.

The key to Bradish’s unbelievable 2023 campaign was increased usage of his slider – one that was literally unhittable. It’s possible teams will try to adjust, but it was such a filthy pitch that I don’t think it will matter. If all else fails, Bradish’s 49% ground-ball rate was tops between the trio. Ryan’s sat at just 31.6%, which was actually his career high in three seasons on the bump.

I think it’s safe to say I’d already cut Ryan between the three, which narrows down the choice between Bradish and Luzardo. The case for the latter is elite, elite strikeout stuff (10.48 K/9 vs. Bradish’s 8.96 K/9). However, Bradish’s mediocre strikeout stuff early in the season before bumping up the usage of the slider makes his number a tad misleading.

And then of course, there’s health. Luzardo got through 2023 unscathed but has often been injured throughout his young career. That’s not enough to make me cross a guy off the list completely, but I’ll be fading Luzardo coming off an excellent season expecting a bit of regression.

The case against Bradish is simple. Was this a one-year blip on the radar? I’m fairly confident that it’s not. I’ll be taking Bradish if it comes down to these three guys near the top-100 mark in ADP.

Verdict: Kyle Bradish

Top 200 Pocket

Bo Naylor (CLE), Keibert Ruiz (WSH), Jonah Heim (TEX)

We’ve looked at three stud hitters and a trio of breakout arms. I figure the most beneficial group to examine next is the catcher position. Catchers are always tricky. My strategy is typically to lock down a productive catcher earlier than usual to gain an edge on the field at a relatively shallow position. But not everyone has that luxury or opportunity.

So what happens if you end up taking a stab at your first (or possibly second) catcher near the top 150-200 pocket in projected ADP? That’s where you’ll find Bo Naylor (165), Keibert Ruiz (166) and Jonah Heim (167) sitting back-to-back-to-back. Interesting.

Here’s how these guys performed last season:

• Naylor (67 games): .253 AVG, 11 HR, 32 RBI, 33 R, 5 SB
• Ruiz (136 games): .260 AVG, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 55 R, 1 SB
• Heim (131 games): .258 AVG, 18 HR, 95 RBI, 61 R, 2 SB

Naylor at least has a chance to steal double-digit bags. That’s better than nothing. Let’s get that out of the way. If we simply double Naylor’s production (which would give him 134 games played, right about in line with the others), that would be 22 HR, 64 RBI, 66 R, 10 SB. That’s a pretty darn good line.

However, there’s some uncertainty about his playing time, though I’m not sure I’m buying that. Steamer has him projected to play 91 games this coming season, whereas Ruiz and Heim are projected for 124 games and 123 games, respectively. As we speak, the only other catchers on the Guardians’ roster are Austin Hedges and Cam Gallagher. Is Hedges really going to force Naylor out of the lineup as much as the projections think they will? Not so fast, as Lee Corso would say.

I like Naylor to eclipse 100 games and push closer to the projected starts for Ruiz and Heim.

So the question becomes, will Ruiz or Heim reach those levels if Naylor meets or exceeds his expected production based off last year?

For Ruiz, I’m not as optimistic. Don’t get me wrong, I like the player. I’m always drawn to players with excellent plate discipline and a proclivity to not strike out (a minuscule 10.3% K rate). However, that’s not as important in category leagues or NFBC leagues. In points leagues where you’re penalized -1 points per strikeout, Ruiz is an attractive option – especially if he puts up over 20 HR for the first time in his career. But since we’re focusing mostly on category leagues and the NFBC, I’m going to cross off Ruiz here. He’ll likely have the best batting average of the group but not by enough where it’s a massive edge. With no stolen base upside, I’ll decide between Heim and Naylor.

We already made a case for Naylor. He just has to play and produce like he did last season. He’s a first-rounder with a ton of pedigree, so it’s not exactly wishful thinking. So what about Heim?

In a loaded Texas lineup, Heim lapped the field in RBI and will likely have the most opportunities to produce in that area – though banking on RBI opportunities isn’t an exact science. I like the fact that Mitch Garver got shipped out of town. Heim is the only backstop on the active roster at the moment (other than Andrew Knizner … oooohhh, shaking in my boots). Heim won a Gold Glove and was great with the Texas pitching staff. Having a plus bat makes it even more likely that he’ll stick in the lineup most days.

Whew, this is a tough one. Whenever it’s close like this, I like to go with the more certain commodity. We’ve seen Heim put up 16+ home runs in back-to-back seasons. The lineup environment is elite, and at the moment he has even less competition for at-bats.

Naylor will be a steal if he produces the 22 HR, 62 RBI, 66 R, 10 SB line we theorized about above. But that’s assuming he’ll double exactly what he did last season in just a 67-game sample. I’m going with Heim by a hair. Worst case, you’ll regret passing on Naylor. I find it hard to believe Heim will tank your lineup, though.

Verdict: Jonah Heim

Random Tip

I like to put together a mini stack in NFBC contests whenever possible. In 2022, I went with a mini Astros stack. This past year, I went with a mini Blue Jays stack. If you have a Texas Ranger or two as you approach the 160+ ADP pocket, it makes even more sense to go with Heim for the correlation. Just something to think about if you’re leaning Naylor.

As always, hit us up in the FTN Fantasy Baseball Discord with questions. There’s already some buzz in there, and it’s certain to heat up in the next few months. Perhaps I’ll change my tune by the time March rolls around on some of these tough decisions. Only one way to find out – join the Discord!