Must Javs (7/3): MLB DFS picks for Saturday

There’s a six-game MLB DFS early slate that starts at 4:05 p.m. ET Saturday and a seven-game main slate that starts at 7:05. I plan on doing 3-5 lineups on this slate; check out my cheat sheet and focus below.

In case you missed it, I wrote a tournament primer and a deeper dive into MLB DFS. You can check out both to understand what I do every day and night. I’ll begin with starting pitchers before going through stacks and other favorite plays.

At FTN, we are debuting our MLB DFS optimizer, which is going to be an invaluable resource this season. We will also be in Discord chat almost all the time, so hit us up with questions and make sure to check it out for updated cores from all the pros.

Early slate

Stacks to target

• Favorite — Milwaukee Brewers
• The chalk stacks of the day are probably the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins, but I’d fade those and prefer to pivot to the Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals.

Starting pitchers 

• Favorite pair on DK — Yu Darvish and Kyle Muller (same on FD)
• Chalk — Darvish, Muller and Tyler Mahle are the chalk starters, and I’m fine with any of them.
• Pivot (if fading chalk) — Tarik Skubal

Fades

• Chicago White Sox — I understand the mentality around the White Sox and their elite power against lefties, but this White Sox team is different this season. The White Sox this season have taken a step back and aren’t the same dominant team against lefties they were in 2020. You add Tarik Skubal having eight straight starts of pure dominance, and I’ll pass on the chalky White Sox.
• Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

Core

The core I’m building around with a pivot option at pitcher.

Player 1 — Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Be on the lookout for weather issues in Philadelphia, but Darvish the most dominant pitcher on this slate. Tyler Mahle is a great option as well with an identical K%, but Darvish has the lower walk percentage and higher upside in my eyes. A K% over 30% is something we focus on here and either Mahle or Darvish work for this slate.

Player 2 — Kyle Muller, Atlanta Braves

He faces a weak-hitting Marlins team that strikes out quite a bit. He has sported a K% over 30% as well, but his sample size is smaller. But a $5,300 price tag against the Marlins is plenty appealing.

Player 3 — Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

I Love him in this spot. Milwaukee is a top stack and I find it tough not to include him or Willy Adames in this spot. 

Player 4 — Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

Another great option. While most will pay down for catchers, I prefer to pay for him or Omar Narváez. A key part of any Royals stack.

Player 5 — Value — Michael Taylor, Kansas City Royals

Not an ideal batting spot in the lineup, but he’s been mashing lately. He’s a sneaky home run call for me Saturday. The Royals are one of my top stacks of the day, along with the Brewers. Taylor is my top value and by a landslide. 

Player 6 — Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Pivot off the chalkier Muller and Darvish.

Main slate

Stacks to target 

• Favorite — Houston Astros (at Coors)
• The chalk stack on the main slate is the Los Angeles Dodgers, but I’d rather pivot to the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels and Oakland A’s.

Starting pitchers 

• Favorite pair on DK—Clayton Kershaw and Marco Gonzales (same on FD)
• Chalk — Kershaw, Gonzales and Alex Cobb are all solid chalk plays.
• Pivot (if fading chalk) — Jake Odorizzi

Fades 

• Los Angeles Dodgers — Pablo Espino didn’t look awful in his first start. While his minor league numbers may not match that first start, I still think this is a trap spot for an overowned Dodgers lineup. If he could limit them like he did the Mets with the high ground ball rate and handle five innings again, I think this will help us with our fade of the Dodgers. I’m banking on it.
• Sammy Long, San Francisco Giants
• Garrett Richards, Boston Red Sox

Core

The core I’m building around for the evening slate.

Player 1 — Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw’s the best pitcher on the slate. Not the best matchup, but the Nationals are prone to strikeouts and the upside is there. 

Player 2 — Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners

One thing that has helped me with DFS this season is targeting high-strikeout teams, and the Texas Rangers qualify.

Player 3 — Michael Brantley, Houston Astros

Brantley is always too cheap and could be batting second once again for my favorite stack on Saturday’s main slate. $4,100 is a laughable price. 

Player 4 — Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies

You always want to get exposure to Coors, and Tapia is one of my favorites there. His home/away splits show he’s hit almost twice as well at home. He’s leading off Saturday, so I love the play here.

Player 5 — Value — Elvis Andrus, Oakland A’s

If Andrus bats second again, I’m locking him in at a tough SS position. Oakland sits as a top-three stack for me, so having exposure here makes sense.

Player 6 — Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

Revenge narrative once again. I’m calling a double dong here. 

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