Ahead of the Count: MLB DFS plays for Saturday (7/3)

Welcome back to Ahead of the Count. This article is going to cover my thoughts on the slate, top to bottom. My goal is to provide you with as much analysis, strategy and advice as possible on a daily basis to help you guys not only make winning lineups, but learn, develop and dial in on a process of your own.

Kyle Murray takes the weekend off for this article, but we will continue with the same setup that you are accustomed to. Projections are currently loaded into our brand new FTN MLB DFS optimizer on the site, but make sure you’re checking back and not setting lineups too early as projections will often change once starting lineups are confirmed. The player-rater system and ownership projections will also be integrated into the optimizer. 

Lastly, please be sure to check for spotty weather and to confirm the starting lineups for each person I write up to ensure they made the starting lineup that day.

Pitchers 

Expensive tier

1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Mid-tier

1. Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners
2. Jake Odorizzi, Houston Astros

Value tier

1. Garrett Richards, Boston Red Sox

My pitcher rankings

1. Clayton Kershaw
2. Marco Gonzales
3. Jake Odorizzi
4. Alex Cobb
5. Garrett Richards

Stacks

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Houston Astros
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Colorado Rockies

Slate strategy

With a lack of pitching options to trust Saturday night, it makes a lot of sense to pay up for Kershaw. On DK where we need a secondary or even in GPP on FD, we are spread thin on the trust factor with what is left. Garrett Richards is someone I like more than normal on this slate, especially if his ownership is as low as my original numbers indicate. Having conviction on the rest of the pitchers available is tough so if you feel strong about any of them this is a slate to go overweight and take shots.

If we get the typical Coors ownership as we should, then I love the idea of finding alternate stacks to overweight in tournaments. While both the Cardinals and Rockies have shown flashes at times, they also consistently produce duds. I am more than OK taking the chance of a fade in high-leverage tournaments. My favorites are the Dodgers, Astros and Mariners.

Quick hits

Favorite value hitter – Jake Bauers
Favorite value pitcher – Garrett Richards
Favorite one-off hitter – Mike Yastrzemski
Favorite contrarian pitcher – Alex Cobb
Favorite contrarian stack – Seattle Mariners
The bleacher report (HR calls) – Nolan Arenado, Kyle Tucker, Jared Walsh