Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
aGet into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video complement to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we’re going up the country in search of the ultimate … a league championship! The MLB Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror. It’s time to focus on the final two months of the fantasy baseball season. Let’s get to it.
JRam Planted Tim Anderson & Got Suspended 3 Fewer Games
Strategery
I am not alone right now when it comes to making tough decisions with my fantasy baseball rosters. In my 14-team H2H Cats home league BYB, we have a maximum number of player adds for the season at 100. I like this much more than the weekly capping of player adds because it allows more freedom with certain weeks when maybe there is a need for a major stream-off with starting pitchers. H2H fantasy baseball thrives on various types of weekly battles depending on the matchup. That’s part of its charm. Once the 100-player add cap is reached though, that’s the end of the ballgame until the playoffs. For playoff weeks, the allotments change as each manager is allowed only two moves per playoff week. I am a fan of this because it puts more emphasis on roster construction over the course of the entire season and really hinders people from going buck wild with player adds. That means it’s unlikely a team will sneak into the playoffs with an inferior roster and be able to get better with endless player adds. Without this limitation, some managers would likely burn through their roster like the rodents of unusual size do in The Princess Bride.
I have six moves left as of Monday night. The newest badass with a heart of gold on the MLB block is Davis Schneider (more on him in the Screenshots segment). Our league is hosted on Yahoo, which I will ride for until the end of time. It is the entry point for most first-time fantasy baseball newbies looking to try something new. That appeals to me because I want fantasy baseball to grow. Schneider was just added to the Yahoo player database and will come off waivers Tuesday (yes, we still use a waiver wire and not FAAB, which I think is so less appealing from a strategic perspective). If I add him, I only have five moves remaining. I am in first place by 3.5 games in my division, and if I lose that spot I will also lose my first-round bye. Anybody who has a modicum of H2H experience will know instantly how uncertain the playoffs can be in H2H. One so-so week from my roster and the party’s over. Injuries have also ravaged my squad. We only have four bench spots in BYB, which makes the free agent pool a little more appealing than it might be in other 14-teamers. We also only allow for three IL spots, so no team can just load up on IL player adds. That doesn’t help me at all though as I’ve lost Jake Fraley, Bo Bichette, Jonathan India (expected to return Tuesday) Byron Buxton, Jordan Romano and Josh Naylor. Don’t cry for me Argentina! Monday I made the painful decision to cut Naylor outright even though we have six forever keepers after the season. Sounds like amateur hour here, doesn’t it? Why did I do this? It came down to four things. Our playoffs start Aug. 21, and even if I get the bye, Naylor won’t be back most likely by Aug. 28. Then there is the matter of the roster crunch I am in with all these other injuries. I need players who can play right now as I fend off my leaguemate John, who is only 3.5 games behind me. BYB is also a league that uses LF, CF and RF specifically as positions instead of just OF. That means losing Fraley hurt even more than losing his production, because now without Buxton as well I had nobody who could play CF on my roster. I ended up adding Trent Grisham over the weekend, which wasn’t a bad move — Grisham has been quite useful lately. Lastly, I likely would not have kept Naylor though it would have been very close. Maybe I should have dumped Buxton over Naylor for the roster spot? I may come to regret not doing that later on. All of these factors came into play, and that was just related to Naylor. The strategy is second to none. For those of us who fancy ourselves as general managers in another life, accept no substitutes. This is why I put fantasy baseball in a class by itself when it comes to fantasy sports.
I share all of this in the pursuit of improvement. Having an awareness and comprehension of the specific aspects of our fantasy baseball roster within the overall league context will only serve to help all of us improve as players. Emotional attachments to player transactions are a real phenomenon that any fantasy baseball manager can fall prey to. Too many times I have made trades or added players that were not working out, but I didn’t want to cut bait when I should have because I wanted to be proven correct. That’s fool’s gold my friends. Acceptance of our mistakes in a timelier manner will only enhance our ability to pivot when our teams badly need to cut loose on failed ventures. Plus identifying transactions within the framework specific to our team needs from actual roster positions of strength matters greatly. The combination of emotional attachment and not understanding the big picture of positional scarcity will likely lead to further challenges that may not have an avenue to be undone. For instance, I traded the awesome Twins rookie Edouard Julien before our July 27 league trade deadline straight up to acquire Byron Buxton. I did that because I thought I was in a position of strength at 2B with India, Brendan Donovan (another player lost to injury I didn’t mention) and the soon-to-return Brendan Rodgers on my roster at the time. And when Fraley got hurt, having Buxton as insurance at CF was a solid choice. The process was sound. Yes, I knew I was trading for a frail player in Buxton. Of course I knew that! With Naylor though I also had many other 1B options at my disposal like Joey Votto, Ty France, Spencer Steer and LaMonte Wade Jr. Again, a position of strength versus a position of scarcity in CF. Desperately needing active hitters to produce stats for me, cutting Naylor made sense for my specific situation because of the context of my roster and the free agent pool in BYB. There are thousands of other team contexts within other fantasy baseball leagues where dropping Josh Naylor would be absurd. This is why it’s so vitally important to provide as much context as possible to fantasy baseball analysts when posing questions about what to do with our teams. Good luck this week!
Pointless Act
It’s important to find time for levity in each day we inhabit this planet. If we can do so with brevity, then we have completed the levity/brevity/regularity trifecta for the day! So let me introduce this week’s most innocuous transaction as found on MLB’s own website. This one is truly pointless. Free Justyn-Henry Malloy already!
Screenshots
Davis Schneider, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
This green Toronto infielder came alive from the moment he was called up last Friday when he homered in his first MLB at-bat! For those fantasy managers looking for holes in his profile, he was a 28th-round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft and didn’t even have a profile on Yahoo’s platform! When Yahoo has to add a player to their database at this point in the season, it’s clear the dude wasn’t on anybody’s radar. Davis Schneider mashed at AAA Buffalo this season to the tune of a 140 wRC+ with 72 BBs to 86 K’s and 21 dongs in 392 PA. Want more progression? During 2022 in 113 games played with 454 PA over multiple minor league levels, Schneider had 116 K’s, 65 walks, 16 homers and 17 swipes. We’ve seen a lot of players get called up over the final two months of the season who crushed the baseball with reckless abandon (Joey Meneses, Aristides Aquino, Rhys Hoskins, Matt Olson and Gary Sánchez) and helped secure fantasy baseball titles for many managers. Losing Bo Bichette to the IL wasn’t ideal, but shockingly Schneider has moved the spotlight away from Bichette directly into himself in five days. Incredible! Schneider should be added universally until he cools down.
Tyler Black, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
This Canadian may be a new name to some, but he’s definitely a player all of us should be aware of going forward. Ty;er Black was promoted to AAA over the weekend and is now just one move away from playing his home games at Miller Park or whatever lame corporation paid the most money to have their name slapped on the front of the park. Black was a competitive balance pick at the end of round one of the 2021 MLB Draft after playing college ball at the Midwest powerhouse known as Wright State University. Check out his sick BB rates below! Black is a dream for fantasy managers who play in OBP leagues. The best part is he can steal bases every time he draws a walk, which is quite frequently! Imagine Brendan Donovan except quicker and without the defensive flexibility. Black might get a taste of the good life before this season is out. Monitor Black’s status going forward.
Ramón Laureano, OF, Cleveland Guardians
It wasn’t long ago that Ramón Laureano appeared to be a top-150 fantasy asset overall with speed and power despite playing in that biohazard of a stadium in Oakland. Now Laureano has been reduced to a post-trade deadline footnote who was claimed on waivers by the Guardians. Cleveland is desperate for offensive inspiration.
Jake Fraley, OF, Cincinnati Reds
This one hurt. Losing Jake Fraley really hurt because I had hitched my wagon to his star in about 90% of my fantasy baseball leagues.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
Josh Jung has been a positive part of what the Rangers have become this year: a solid team ascending toward the playoffs for the first time since losing the ALDS to the Blue Jays in 2016. Jung fractured his left thumb fielding a line drive, and now he will have surgery on it, keeping him out at least six weeks. It’s a bad break for fantasy managers who have come to rely on Jung as their foundation at 3B. This is good news for Ezequiel Duran, who can take Jung’s spot at the hot corner. The bad news is Duran is ice cold. In the last 30 days he has 2 dongs, 5 RBIs and 2 steals with a .197/.266/.324 triple slash. I am a massive proponent of Duran! I love that dude. But even I realized that his inability to draw walks was going to make his slumps tougher to take than other hitters. Hopefully Duran can pick it up going forward. Keep an eye on lefty-hitting Josh Smith as well, who is another option for the Rangers as they battle the Astros and the streaking Mariners (8-2 in their last 10) for the AL West crown.
José Urquidy, SP, Houston Astros
José Urquidy came back from a long IL stint Sunday only to be ripped by the Yankees in the Bronx. The 28-year-old has a career ERA of 3.93 (4.49 FIP) and doesn’t miss a lot of bats. We never want to judge a pitcher solely on their first start back from an injury, so consider giving Urquidy another chance when he takes on the slumping Angels at home this weekend. Just don’t expect a lot of swinging strikes in that outing. 14-teamers and deeper he is a streamer. For now.
Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
All signs point to “yes” when it comes to Ryan Helsley returning from the IL when first eligible Thursday. He was throwing 100 MPH as per usual in his minor-league rehab outing over the weekend. Helsley will absolutely return to the closer role once he is activated later this week by the Cardinals. Yes, St. Louis has been a disappointment to their community this season, but Helsley will secure saves for the masses down the stretch.
Dany Jiménez, RP, Oakland Athletics
Another reliever returning from the IL, Dany Jiménez was the closer for a time last year in Oakland. He saved 11 games in 14 tries over 34 IP in 2022. He might be older than many fantasy gurus realize. The 29-year-old could be in the mix for saves, but how many opportunities Oakland will afford him is reason enough to watch him from afar for now.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox
This Friday marks the return of Chris Sale to an MLB pitching mound once more. Sale is still able to miss plenty of bats with his electric stuff. It all comes down to injury luck. Being available is a big part of being one of the best in the game. Sale has the stuff to be as good as any pitcher in MLB, but his availability is always a question mark. Any fantasy baseball manager rostering him will most certainly be holding their breath when Sale takes the field Friday.
Starling Marte, OF, New York Mets
Welp, that’s that mattress man. Starling Marte is going back on the IL and will likely be toast for the rest of 2023. Marte’s migraines became a problem for him this year, but now this trip to the IL is about his groin. He had surgery on both sides of his groin last offseason, but that didn’t seem to slow him down any on the base paths as he stole 24 bags in 28 tries. The Mets are finally out of contention in my opinion, so shutting Starling down for the rest of 2023 seems very likely as he rests up to make a run again in 2024. I highly doubt he is seriously injured though. This sure seems fishy to me. See you in 2024, Starling!
José Alvarado, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies closer on occasion has thrown successful bullpen sessions and will now prepare for his rehab assignment. Barring any setbacks, which are always in play particularly with pitchers, Alvardo may return to the back end of the Philadelphia bullpen in 7-10 days. It’s absolutely worth noting that my preferred option in that pen, Seranthony Domínguez, had two saves last week before Craig Kimbrel locked down the save last Saturday against the Royals with Dominguez playing the setup role. Alvarado may be a ways off from securing saves again even when he does return. Proceed with caution.
Pablo Reyes, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox
Who the hell is this dude?! It’s unreal to me how I can be swimming in baseball knowledge with hundreds of players in my head while paying attention daily to the 162-game grind only to then be stunned by the existence of a player like Pablo Reyes when he does something incredible like hit a walkoff grand slam at Fenway Park. Reyes had apparently been on the IL since late June with an abdomen injury before returning in late July. He doesn’t play a lot and now with the return of infielder Trevor Story set for Tuesday, Lopez is likely nothing more than a lovely footnote for the Boston Red Sox in 2023.
Curtis Mead, 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Curtis Mead made his MLB debut at Comerica Park last weekend against my bozo Tigers. I know my Pallazzo prospects pal Benjamin Chase loves Mead as a player, but his fantasy profile looks to be nothing more than a very consistent contact hitter that pairs well with his solid batter’s eye that is also devoid of power without serious base-stealing speed. However, at two stops in the minors during the 2022 season, Mead did belt 13 dongs in 331 PA. If he can be a 20-homer guy at least, then Mead will be a rock-solid fantasy asset for a long time. He’s still only 22 years old, so Mead deserves time to find his way. But that doesn’t mean we have to join him on his journey this season. Mead isn’t much more than a speculative add in 14-teamers and deeper.
Brice Turang, 2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang’s first go-around with the Brew Crew wasn’t ideal, but since getting called back up to the big leagues in late June, Turang has a 14% BB rate and a 14% K rate over 115 PA. He homered and swiped a bag Monday night, which brings him to a .429 OBP over the last two weeks. Clearly Turang’s talent is starting to shine through as combines his foundational talent with the wisdom he has earned as a first-year MLB starter. Turang is worth adding in 12-teamers and deeper.
Brent Honeywell Jr., RP, Chicago White Sox
The once-promising screwball phenom was claimed on waivers by the White Sox the other day. Brent Honeywell Jr. is with the big club now as he pitched two thirds of an inning without any earned runs in a 5-1 win over the Yankees. Honeywell might be of use in holds leagues where a save-vulturing moment may present itself from time to time. Gregory Santos is on the bereavement list but should be back any day now to maintain his claim on the closing gig. Just for kicks, read this to get a sense of how highly touted Honeywell was five years ago. I used to have a major prospect crush on him.
Cole Tucker, SS, Colorado Rockies
Guess who’s back? Back again? It’s Cole Tucker, formerly of the Neal Huntington-era Pittsburgh Pirates who become the poster child for modern MLB front office failures. For anybody who forgot this Twitter thread from former Pirate prospect Kevin Kramer, enjoy! Anyways, Tucker is back in The Show! This time with a much more inept organization than at any point in the Neal Huntington era: the Colorado Rockies. Frankly, it’s probably not even worth mentioning at this point. All I really wanted was a chance to bring up that Twitter thread again and make fun of the Rockies front office. Tucker will likely be irrelevant. Even at Coors.
