Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video complement to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we got out of our dreams and into my car in search of the ultimate…a league championship! Our search is one step closer to completion as we now take our efforts into September.
Here’s The Actual Baseball Output by Ronald Acuña Jr. at Coors
Obviously You’re Not a Golfer
The moment of truth has drawn near. The H2H fantasy baseball playoffs are commencing across this great land of ours. Right now, there are many fantasy baseball managers obsessing over the pitching choices they will make this week. Will it really be David Peterson or Cole Ragans taking the bump for these managers instead of Max Scherzer? When it comes down to one week to advance, there are less variables to control than many fantasy baseball managers may realize. The following is my not so obvious guide to advancing in the H2H fantasy baseball playoffs:
Muster as Much Hope as Humanly Possible
Maybe the most excellent aspect about the H2H fantasy baseball playoffs is the uncertain nature of each week. It’s true that anything truly can happen over the course of seven days. Leading up even to the final inning or out of the week. The matchup might come down to the Sunday night game where WHIP is determined by a RP who walks one too many batters leading to a tenth-of-a-point decision. What if two teams face off who played each other twice during the regular season? Maybe the week comes down to a 5-5 tie because it’s the H2H Cats format? It’s the playoffs, so there can’t be a tie; one of the teams has to advance. Maybe the team with the less superior season-long record overall coming into the matchup holds the H2H tiebreaker with two wins over the other opponent and it is for that reason alone that the team with the less impressive regular season record advances? How about this scenario where a fantasy manager who rosters Andrés Muñoz secures a win after Munoz blows a save in the top of the ninth inning Sunday immediately followed by a Julio Rodríguez (who is also rostered by the same manager) walkoff dong to advance that same manager who was facing certain elimination moments ago to the next round. Sounds too good to be true? These things happen every season.
Don’t Blame the Format
Frequently a manager all caught up in their own feelings will lash out at the H2H format itself after a bitter playoff week loss. Screw that! Everybody came into the season agreeing to the understanding that H2H fantasy baseball is a total bozo fest, crackpot, harebrained scheme of a supposed method for playing fantasy baseball. Everybody knows the score when they sign on, so it’s bush league Sega stuff to say otherwise just because the season didn’t go according to plan. It only goes according to plan for one fantasy manager in every single league by season’s end. Be as bitter as possible if a loss stings, but don’t turn things into amateur hour by going to the oldest and lamest excuse in the book for losing. H2H has always been what we thought it was.
Matchups Make the Matchup
The schedule is never as powerful of a tool in fantasy baseball than it is during the H2H playoffs. Looking ahead six weeks out before the playoffs commence is never a bad idea. Making trades ahead of time to accommodate the most beneficial playoff schedule can be a little bit more complicated though. Too much can change in a month’s time. That’s a lot of uncertainty to bank on for one week. Then it becomes about trying to have the best schedule for the expected first playoff round of participation or for the one to follow. The one that follows won’t mean jack squat if the first playoff week is a loss. My point here is don’t overthink it. Focus on which playoff week will most likely be the first one and do all that can be done to gain an edge in the matchups that week. Having more hitters than the other team on Mondays and Thursday when more teams are off. Are there home games at Coors or other hitter friendly parks that week? Having more two-start pitchers that week than the other squad. Looking for makeup days from earlier season rainouts where there may be doubleheaders. All of these areas offer up potential advantages just from the schedule alone. Remember that these are opportunities to gain more points than the other team that week. That’s all they are. They’re not promises. Just opportunities.
Use the Force
I’ve seen a lot of various Star Wars movies from different generations. In most of them the characters talked a great deal about balance when using The Force. A H2H fantasy baseball playoff week is all about the balance of quality versus quantity. The classic conundrum of going with a 30-pack of watered-down trash-in-a-can Natty Light or going with a couple of 4-packs of Bell’s Two-Hearted Ale, which is just swimming in a high alcohol content? This test question usually comes down to the variable of age because the financial means and implication of someone’s age will likely dictate how an answer to this quandary is determined. A H2H fantasy matchup requires a detailed invoice of the mount of AB’s each team is likely to accrue, how many starts each side will likely receive over the next seven days and of course determining how streamers will alter those numbers favorably for a win. Balance sounds good on paper, but only examining the balance really matters more than anything else. After that, determining which moves to make and which players to possibly sit over the course of the week so that the final score is a win is what matters the most above all notions of balance.
Dominance Is Not a Prerequisite
Taking an opponent to the played-out cliche known as the woodshed means nothing in the H2H playoffs. Whether it be points or cats, a win is always awarded when one team has more of the required scoring variables than the other. As I stated already, even a tie won’t abide by the laws of playoff fantasy baseball. A 5-5 tie will still be a win for one manager or the other based on a clearly well-thought-out constitution in the league’s bylaws. The point here is all it takes is curating a roster in the months and weeks leading up to the playoffs to be just one point better than the other team. A 6-4 championship victory is just as legitimate as a 10-0 title. Remember that for next year when June comes around and that itchy trade-happy index finger comes a calling once more.
Talk That Junk
It’s a long season. By the time the playoffs arrive, it’s worth it when the scoreboard works out favorably to let off some of that steam White Men Can’t Jump style. Talk that trash! Let the league know what kind of genius is running this playoff winning roster. After five months of a grind, everybody has earned the spotlight to run their mouth for a bit. That’s what makes H2H special in comparison to the rest of the formats.
Accept the Inevitable
By this point in the season trades are over for the leagues out there with any respect for themselves. There may be a set limit of transactions available for the week. These moves may not move the needle in a great majority of matchups. The roster shining brightly through the blue light of the preferred device of the typical fantasy baseball manager isn’t going to go through any major overhauls at this time. Compete like hell. By compete I simply mean submit the lineup for the week or the day accordingly as the real titans of the game of baseball determine the results on the field. There is little more any fantasy manager can do now beyond watching the results live or view the Gameday App box score updates as they come through the wifi in excruciatingly slow fashion. We’ve all been there.
Pointless Act
It’s important to find time for levity in each day we inhabit this planet. If we can do so with brevity, then we have completed the levity/brevity/regularity trifecta for the day! So let me introduce this week’s most innocuous transaction as found on MLB’s own website. This one definitely has a point although it’s sadly about a currently pointless player. Remember back to 2015 when Thor was a key cog in a budding championship-caliber pitching rotation?
Screenshots
Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, Cleveland Guardians
Josh Naylor is heading out on a rehab assignment. Will he be able to return in 10 days? Maybe. Remember that rosters expand ever so slightly to 28 come Sept. 1. Doesn’t mean much here, plus Cleveland is looking like they’re toast for 2023. Still, Naylor’s bat for three weeks could be helpful for a lot of teams.
Matt McLain, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Boy, this one stung. The news about Matt McLain’s oblique strain came down later Monday, leading to some people having McLain in their lineups (like me in Tout Wars of places). This likely puts a wrap on McLain’s debut year. Maybe he sneaks back for a final farewell, but I would be dropping in redraft.
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox
The hot-hitting Pablo Reyes hit the IL Monday, and after Jarren Duran did the same a few days prior, that was the exact opening needed to bring Ceddanne Rafaela up to The Show. He made his MLB debut in a rout of a loss to Houston Monday at Fenway, securing his first MLB hit in the later stages of the game. This dude is a real talent with power and speed. Must-add in 12-teamers and deeper.
Kyle Harrison, SP, San Francisco Giants
I said it before, and I’ll say it again: I love Kyle Harrison. This dude has ace stuff. I was hoping he would be up by July for redraft this year, but he came a month later. Definitely worth the wait though as he struck out 11 Reds hitters Monday night. He was filthy as he secured the win Monday night in a 4-1 victory. Harrison is going to be a difference maker over the last month of the season. Everybody take note and add him everywhere if possible.
Félix Bautista, RP, Baltimore Orioles
Total buzzkill losing Félix Bautista at this point in the season. He has become one of the premier closers in the game already after making waves just a season ago. In redraft it’s unfortunately time to say goodbye to Bautista. Yennier Cano is the immediate name who comes to mind to fil in as the closer, but my Pallazzo pal Mike Virginia tells me that a committee is more likely going forward. For those who don’t know, Mikey is not only my Pallazzo partner, but a big Orioles fan. I trust his judgment on this one.
Parker Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
Just wanted to mention my main man who hit this awesome walkoff dong against Houston last weekend in what may be the highlight of the Tigers’ fairly pedestrian season of 2023. Parker Meadows is 6-foot-5 and can fly. I wrote here last week that he will be a viable asset for power and speed down the stretch as he plays every day. I am only more entrenched in this position for the last month. He might end up being the best Tiger hitting prospect yet. Add him now if possible.
Brady Singer, SP, Kansas City Royals
Brady Singer will have his turn in the rotation skipped this week as the team says he has arm fatigue. Do not count on him for this week as it seems he will return for his normal spot in the rotation next week. Anne Rogers who is a beat reporter for Royals stated that he is to return next week for his normal turn in the rotation. Act accordingly.
Jordan Wicks, SP, Chicago Cubs
Jordan Wicks made his MLB debut last week, striking out 9 Pirates after starting off slowly with a dong surrendered to Ke’Bryan Hayes. Wicks did well in his debut and will get another go this week against the Reds in Great American Bozo Park. Wicks showed solid strikeout potential in the minors this year, so he is worth riding for another go if he’s available. I am a little dubious of this particular upcoming start though just because they park scares the bejesus out of me.
Bailey Ober, SP, Minnesota Twins
Bailey Ober is out of here after being demoted Monday. It sucks because he has been a valuable piece for me in several leagues this year, but he had a terrible August. He’s making room for Kody Funderbunk, which is an awesome name that immediately reminds me of former NBA player Lawrence Funderburke. Funderbunk has been excellent in 52 IP as a RP at AAA St. Paul with a 2.60 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. Ober could be back soon with rosters expanding in a couple days. With rosters expanding while Ober not being an injured player, I am trying to confirm if he has to stay down in AAA for the entire time he is supposed to before he can return.
Jurickson Profar, OF, Colorado Rockies
The baffling, uncalled-for veteran moves like this one that the Rockies always seem to make is no longer relevant or holding any younger Rockies players back now. Profar has been DFA’ed by the ballclub. This good news for all kinds of younger Colorado players who will hopefully see more consistent time without Profar around. It’s possible Profar catches on elsewhere but seems unlikely to be of any use for fantasy purposes at this time.
Tanner Scott, RP, Miami Marlins
The David Robertson trade has backfired on the Marlins. Robertson has been trash and is out as the closer in Miami. Enter former closer Tanner Scott, who closed games last year for Miami. The lefty has wicked, hard stuff that can get the job done. He closed out the save Sunday against Washington and has been stellar over the last month with 11 solid relief innings over that time. Scott is the new man in Miami. Make it so.
DJ LeMahieu, 1B/3B, New York Yankees
I love seeing the Yankees stink it up, but for fantasy purposes we all need to be riding the hot bat of old man DJ LeMahieu. Dude is on a tear with 4 homers over his last 6 games. He leads off too, so that sweetens the post just a bit. Looks like he will stay in that position unless he goes totally cold as ice and is willing to sacrifice his love. Add him in 14-teamers and deeper for sure with 12-teamers on standby.
Mark Vientos, 3B, New York Mets
The Mets welcomed Mark Vientos back over the weekend from the IL. He will likely receive everyday playing time as the Mets look ahead to 2024. Vientos has a solid bat that could be of use to managers playing in 14-teamers and deeper.
Taj Bradley, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Taj Bradley is continuing to pitch down at AAA Durham for the Rays affiliate. Forgetting Aug, 4, where he pitched just two innings forgettably, Bradley has thrown 19.2 IP over four starts giving up three ER on two homers with 23 K’s and 9 BBs. Bradley will be needed again over the stretch run for the Rays. So if he’s available in 12-teamers and deeper, give him an add now to get ahead of the game if possible.
Will Smith, RP, Texas Rangers
What a nightmare it has been for Will Smith and really for all of the Rangers lately as they have relinquished their AL West lead just like I called at the All-Star break. Smith hasn’t done squat in weeks now. Over the last two weeks, he has 3 total IP with 2 K’s and horrid ratios. Aroldis Chapman is the guy over Smith for saves now in Texas if there are any more saves to be had. Why did I think Smith would last over the entire season, and more importantly why did Bruce Bochy get carte blanche from the front office in this regard? A mistake now looking back at it. Unlikely that will change by season’s end. So annoying.
Shohei Ohtani, UT, Los Angeles Angels
I just wanted to go on the record and reassure the masses that the UCL issue for Shohei Ohtani is not a concern. This is my only chance to say it in column form each week. He already did this before in 2019 when he played as a hitter and didn’t pitch as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Ohtani will just keep on hitting the rest of the season as he plays out the string for the final time as an Angel. This dude is going to make Bryce Harper’s return this year look like amateur hour. Ohtani should not be removed from any lineups as a hitter for the rest of 2023. I love this dude!
Shea Langeliers, C, Oakland Athletics
This youngster was a hot add coming into this week because he hit 4 dongs last week. That’s fun. He did it against Kansas City and the White Sox though. Just saying. Shea Langeliers has true power potential that is not a fluke, it’s just hit or miss. He closed out last season strong, hitting 3 taters over the final week of the season including a double-dong effort against Seattle. Maybe this is a trend for him? Not likely. He was a rookie last year, so he’s still developing his MLB trends. Still, for those in need of power at the catching position, he’s a solid choice.
