NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video complement to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we’re leaving on a jet plane in search of the ultimate … a league championship! Usually this article rolls out Tuesdays, but I wanted to ensure that this article was up to date with all of the finality of the MLB trade deadline included in this week’s analysis. So let’s dive into the post-MLB trade deadline goodies across the fantasy baseball realm.
Ben Lively Will Need to See a Sports Psychologist After This
We’ve Only Just Begun
The 2023 MLB trade deadline is now kaput. For those readers looking for a recap of every trade made at the deadline, check out my main man Vlad Sedler’s free article right here. For our purposes though, I am going to highlight specific trades that I think are worthy of review. In addition, I’ll also provide every possible implication for each trade specifically from a fantasy baseball perspective. Let’s boogie!
Michael Lorenzen to Philadelphia
Great job by my bozo Tigers for signing and then flipping Michael Lorenzen to a contender while adding a Single-A prospect asset in Hao-Yu Lee. Kudos to first year GM Scott Harris. For the Phillies this, is a poor choice. And for Lorenzen it’s a bad fit. Citizens Bank Ballpark will not be kind to Lorenzen. Former Tigers head man Dave Dombrowski may have been zoned out when he made this deal. Lorenzen has been a ticking time bomb to me in the same vein that Johnny Cueto was last year. I know SP streamer Michael Simione was always ride or die for Michael Lorenzen. Even though I love Michael, I can’t blindly support Lorenzen because of friendship. Lorenzen sports a 3.58 ERA (4.44 SIERA, 3.88 FIP) right now. He’s not overly dominant when it comes to whiffs, but one thing he has really improved on this season is reducing the free passes. With the Angels in 2022, Lorenzen had 85 K’s to 44 walks over 97 IP. This year in 105 IP, Lorenzen has 83 K’s to 27 walks. Clearly a big improvement. He’s allowed 11 dongs this year matching his season total already for all of 2022. Heading to Philly in that ballpark and in that division means the stakes go up for Lorenzen. I expect more dongs over the final two months which means worse ratios the rest of the way too.
This Is Good News Because: More to play for may inspire his competitive spirit and the Phillies needed a reliable veteran innings eater.
This Is Bad News Because: The division is much tougher, the ballpark is worse for homers and Philadelphia’s defense is not going to do Lorenzen any favors.
Jake Burger, Josh Bell to Miami
These two sluggers came over in separate deals, but both of them are now on the same squad in Vice City. Marlins GM Kim Ng clearly understood that Jorge Soler alone was not going to be enough power to battle in the NL East over the final two months. The Marlins shipped out veteran infielder Jean Segura and Garrett Cooper, which means there are two fewer infielders to worry about slotting in over Burger and Bell. Yuli Gurriel is going to lose playing time along with Jon Berti and Joey Wendle. The other point here is that Burger is closing in on 2B eligibility. He is now in jeopardy of losing that since he will likely DH and play 3B. Bummer for my guy Dave McDonald, who was banking on that 2B addition to Burger’s fantasy profile. Josh Bell is a switch hitter while Burger is a right-handed slugger. Loan Depot Park is bottom three in MLB over the last three years for homers from both sides of the plate. For right-handed hitters it’s the same, but for left-handers there is a slight boost up to 22nd in MLB for dongs. For the White Sox, Yoán Moncada is still there and will play if he’s healthy, which is a major uncertainty. Old man time Elvis Andrus will now be back in the mix without having to worry about Jake Burger. I doubt he does it again, but recall how on fire Andrus was down the stretch last season.
This Is Good News Because: Burger and Bell both provide power that Miami desperately needs, the NL East has more hitter-friendly ballparks than the AL Central, and they don’t have to worry about losing playing time.
This Is Bad News Because: The Marlins’ park is not a friendly power environment, the Marlins are in win-now mode, which could mean whoever produces right now plays regardless of status, the NL East is much more fearsome than the AL Central.
Ryan Yarbrough to the Dodgers
Right now, there is a person reading these words who happens to be a diehard Yar-Bro! Trust me, these people exist in fantasy baseball circles. And with good reason! I almost became one of them prior to the 2021 season. These bros pushed his ADP up in 2021 and tried once more in 2022 before even they had enough and abandoned all hope. The Tampa Bay Rays tried like hell to make Ryan Yarbrough a thing, and even they failed. So why can the Dodgers succeed where others have failed? It’s simple. He’s the feel-good story of the season. For clarity, recall that horrendous line drive Yarbough took off of his face back in May against the Athletics. That alone makes it very easy to root for and become a Yar-Bro. I don’t wish his awful experience upon anybody. Overcoming that trauma makes Yarbrough’s return to the mound this season arguably the most uplifting story of the 2023 MLB season outside of Liam Hendriks beating cancer. In four starts since incredibly returning to the mound July 9, Yarbrough has only allowed 6 ER in 24 IP.
The Dodgers clearly believe that Yarbrough can be a consistent innings eater in their rotation that is heavily reliant upon youngsters right now. He’s also a lefty, which the Dodgers are badly in need of currently without Clayton Kershaw available. This trade likely negatively impacts Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan. Bobby Miller is safe only because I think the Dodgers have more confidence in him than the other two. Back in Kansas City, Cole Ragans and Alec Marsh are pleased to see Yarbrough leave because now they can log starts in the Royals’ rotation. Even the newest member of their team (Tucker Davidson) could benefit from this trade as well.
This Is Good News Because: More wins are likely pitching for the Dodgers and Yarbrough will get more run support.
This Is Bad News Because: The NL West is more difficult and the home ballpark is a downgrade for allowing homers.
Luis Urías to Boston
Dear mama! Damn. Luis Urías has fallen on really harsh times. He completely fell out of favor in a real hurry with the Brewers after they acquired him in the Trent Grisham deal with the Padres back during the offseason of 2019. I was hopeful Urías would take a step forward this season being that he just turned 26 in June. Instead, he popped his hammy on opening day, landing him on the 60-day IL. Back in March, Urías belted this three-run homer against Japan for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic. That was the type of performance that had me stoked to draft him for 2023, oParticularly in OBP leagues where his plate discipline skills go farther than leagues that use batting average. On the Milwaukee side, this move is great news for Brice Turang and speaks to me as a vote of confidence in his playing time for the rest of 2023. For the Sawks, they have Trevor Story getting ready to return plus younger players like David Hamilton, Enmanuel Valdez and super talent Marcelo Mayer. Urías has initially been assigned to AAA Worcester, but I expect him to get some run with the Red Sox over the final two months of the season. How much of that playing time will be useful from a fantasy baseball perspective is a fair question.
This Is Good News Because: Cody Bellinger is proof that a fresh start matters, Urías is still only 26, and the Red Sox are currently relying on Yu Chang at SS.
This Is Bad News Because: Urías is constantly battling injuries, the Brewers gave up on him very easily, and Boston is loaded with a lot of infielder options.
Josh Rojas to Seattle
The arrival of Josh Rojas in Seattle means so long to Kolten Wong, who was DFA’ed by the Mariners. Seattle has been playing well lately and maybe Rojas can help to continue that streak? So far 2023 has been a year to forget for Rojas who was demoted in June. For the year he has not been able to go deep yet despite being given 216 PA. Rojas was having back issues supposedly. He overcame that and got the call back up to Arizona just in time for him to be dealt. His arrival means trouble for Jose Caballero and Dylan Moore. Being a lefty, Rojas provides what will most certainly be a platoon situation going forward for the Mariners at 2B, as Eugenio Suárez is not going to lose time at 3B. Leaving Arizona behind means little for the Dbacks infield, as Rojas was already an afterthought there. Yet, his departure was going to ensure more chances for Emmanuel Rivera to crank dongs in the desert. Unfortunately, Arizona also brought in left-handed hitting Jace Peterson at the deadline meaning Rivera will likely continue to platoon at 3B.
This Is Good News Because: Rojas gets a fresh start with the Mariners, Kolten Wong leaves a low floor of expectations in his wake for Rojas, and the Mariners are desperate for offensive production as they chase a playoff spot.
This Is Bad News Because: Seattle’s ballpark is even more difficult for Rojas to go yard, there are challengers directly in the way already at all positions for Rojas, and Seattle has little room for error.
Nelson Velázquez to Kansas City
I’ve written about this fella once or twice this season. Each time I do, I go back to my stock anecdote from when I first saw him play in the 2021 version of the Arizona Fall League. I’ll spare the readers from my rhetoric, but just be aware that this dude can ball! For evidence of this claim, watch Nelson Velázquez crank this grand salami back in April against the Mariners. This 24-year-old righty-hitting OF launched 16 dongs in 330 PA at AAA this year along with a 29% K rate. He also swiped 7 bags in 10 tries. Power and speed are the two main ingredients that Velázquez has to work with. I wish he would improve his plate discipline a bit more because he is never going to hit for average. The Royals are assigning him to AAA Omaha for now where he might be able to top Edward Olivares for the number of times he has completed the I-29 Shuffle. There was never going to be room for Velázquez with the Cubs, so I see this trade as a positive attribute for his future fantasy potential. I admit it’s very possible that Velázquez will end up as nothing more than a fourth OF with flashes of streaky hitting along the way which will be useful as a one-week streamer.
This Is Good News Because: The Royals are rebuilding, there may be more consistent playing time compared to Chicago, and Kansas City resides in a weaker division.
This is Bad News Because: Kaufmann is a worse ballpark, look at what the Royals did to Edward Olivares, and the Royals have lots of OF pieces already.
What a Pleasure
Time for a quick update related to my first season in Tout Wars. This best of the best analyst-only fantasy baseball competition has many types of leagues. I am competing in the 12-team H2H points league that has been dominated by Frank Stampfl of CBS, as he has won the last two titles. Each week, a team gets either a win or a loss for the week’s point total against their opponent. This past week the website that Tout Wars is hosted on was running uber slow. FAAB bids are due by 8 p.m. ET every Sunday night, so of course I was grinding on my computer at the last possible minute while I was doing my best Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park imitation. Waiting until the last minute to secure player bids was surely a plan to fail. It’s different if I had already made the bids earlier and was only tinkering at the last minute before time expired. Yes, the site running slowly won’t happen every week, but there’s no need for me to put myself at risk like that. Especially in a competition like Tout Wars, which is filled with sharks who will bury me without any regrets every chance they get.
PSYCH! Forget all that preaching I just did, because it turns out my laziness actually saved me from total pitching annihilation this week! Since I was only able to make one bid with two player adds in exchange for dropping Tyler Wells, I was spared the burden of adding Ben Lively of the Reds. For those with short attention spans, Lively is leading off this article because he gave up 13 ER (have a heart, David Bell) against the Cubs Tuesday in less than five innings pitched. I absolutely intended to add Lively to further bids if I hadn’t been given a break by the baseball gods who clearly made the website churn slower than Bartolo Colón rounding the bases after a home run. My procrastination prevented me from exposure to the worst pitching performance of 2023. Sometimes it’s truly better to be lucky than skilled.
Pointless Act
It’s important to find time for levity in each day we inhabit this planet. If we can do so with brevity, then we have completed the levity/brevity/regularity trifecta for the day! So let me introduce this week’s most innocuous transaction as found on MLB’s own website. This one is special though, because it was a pointless trade deadline act.
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Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros
Apparently, Framber Valdez wanted to celebrate the return of Justin Verlander Tuesday with a no-no. That’s exactly what he did in 93 pitches against that pitiful Cleveland offense. A no-hitter is a no-hitter, but the Guardians offense is trash. Still, Framber was able to dominate Cleveland with 7 K’s and just one walk while inducing 16 whiffs. Kudos to Framber.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Detroit Tigers
How about that! There is just no telling what Eduardo Rodriguez will do next, is there? E-Rod vetoed a trade that would have sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that has exemplified what a winning franchise should be over the last 10 years. Apparently he just loves metro Detroit so much, and who could blame him? It’s been my home many times over since birth, and I can clearly see the charm that has left him spellbound. I had a hunch that he might not be dealt at the deadline this year, because my bozo Tigers weren’t an awful trainwreck this year. But I admit that I got talked out of it because it started to seem apparent that he would be dealt. This is a big coup for the Tigers and gives me hope that 2024 will be a year where my bozo Tigers take a step forward, a la the Reds or the Dbacks.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Holy crap, that was a close one. I think this video sums up succinctly where my head was at after I got wind of Bo Bichette limping off the field Monday night. Fortunately, it’s just inflammation and Bichette should be no worse off than an IL stint. Thank the gods because I need him for my H2H playoffs at the end of August.
Slade Cecconi, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
I’ve had my eye on Slade Cecconi for a couple months now, because he’s second in the PCL in strikeouts thrown. Originally a competitive balance pick at the end of the first round in the 2020 MLB Draft, his overall numbers on the season won’t impress folks much. Yet he’s also shown an ability to command the zone. In 103 IP he’s accumulated 104 K’s paired with 29 walks. His ratios will terrify most fantasy baseball managers, but (cue the cliché siren) pitching in the PCL is never easy. Plus his 23 home runs allowed may spark a Nightmare on Elm Street-type reminder of teammate Brandon Pfaadt’s homer problems. Cecconi is a risk on paper, but he’s worth streaming in 14-teamers and deeper for his ability to control the strike zone.
Jonah Heim, C, Texas Rangers
I was heartbroken when I found out Jonah Heim was heading to the IL with a wrist issue. Knowing that this could linger or require season-ending surgery, I dropped Heim in all my redraft leagues. Even if he does come back from this wrist issue this year, he will not be the same player. It’s an injury that requires patience and the Rangers don’t have that luxury right now. It’s best to just rip the bandage off for 2023 when it comes to Heim.
Brendan Donovan, Jack of All Trades, St. Louis Cardinals
During the trade deadline fiesta Tuesday, news trickled out that Brendan Donovan was going to have season-ending surgery on his elbow now instead of waiting until the offseason. This was another crushing bit of news for me as I have come to heavily rely on Donovan’s massive positional portfolio in Yahoo leagues. I also play in a lot of OBP instead of AVG leagues. This loss may not seem like the biggest news of the week, but for fantasy baseball managers losing Donovan’s roster range will sting and linger for longer than one might think. There were instant rumors that top prospect Masyn Winn could receive a call-up to St. Louis now that Paul DeJong was also sent packing to Toronto. That might be something that happens in September and not August since the Cardinals are toast this year. Get well soon, buddy.
Zach Eflin, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
After being tattooed last weekend by the Marlins and leaving with a possible knee injury, Zach Eflin came right back on regular rest with a solid 6-inning outing with 5 K’s to secure the win over the Yankees in the Bronx. Elfin has been a dream this season as he has posted top-20 SP output despite an ADP outside the top 200 overall coming into 2023. He has a 3.64 ERA for the season, but a 3.00 FIP and a 3.37 SIERA with a miniscule 17 walks in 116 IP. Love this dude.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox
The Sawks have sent Chris Sale out to begin his rehab assignment in Worcester. Let’s hope there are no repeats of last season’s meltdown in the minor league clubhouse. Sale completed 2 innings Tuesday without incident. He still has some more outings to go before he returns, but Sale could be back in about two weeks barring any setbacks, which are known to happen.
Griffin Canning, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Griffin Canning had a two-start week lined up this week, but now that’s out the window as he has been placed on the IL with a calf strain. These calf injuries can be a lingering buzzkill for players. Canning should be dropped unless there is an IL spot he can occupy on fantasy rosters.
Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Another pitcher who is hitting the minor league road to rehab his way back to The Show. The Reds definitely need Hunter Greene’s talent in their rotation if they hope to maintain the possibility of controlling the NL Central. The Cubs are hot on their tails now. Greene has been out since June with right hip discomfort. Greene’s first rehab assignment was two innings just like Sale’s was. All fingers should be crossed so that Greene returns to the Queen City unharmed.
Thairo Estrada, 2B/OF, San Francisco Giants
A key cog in the Giants lineup. Thairo Estrada fired up his rehab assignment with AAA Sacramento Tuesday. It shouldn’t take long for Estrada to rehab and return to the Giants’ active roster. Possibly by the coming weekend even. When healthy Estrada is a solid source for steals and runs scored while offering roster flexibility with his positional offerings.
Avisaíl García, OF, Miami Marlins
So it was with little fanfare that Avisaíl García was activated by the Marlins over the weekend. With the splash of their trade deadline moves taking the cake, García’s stick returning to the Miami lineup slid under the radar. Yet, he should at least be added in 14-teamers and deeper at the very least as a flier. In his first two games he has gone 2-4 in each of them. I’ll qualify this by saying I’m not a fan of his profile over his career, but add him now before it’s too late.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Colorado Rockies
Now here’s a move I’ve been patiently sitting on for quite some time. Brendan Rodgers was said to be lost for the season when he got hurt in spring training. He beat that by two months easy, and for those who were paying attention, the reward is a quality middle infield bat who plays home games at Coors. I was thrilled Rodgers was activated Monday, because it helped offset the pain of losing Jonathan India to the IL the day before. Rodgers should be rostered in at least 12-teamers and deeper.
Carlos Hernández, SP/RP, Kansas City Royals
Now that Scott Barlow was finally dealt right at the buzzer of the 2023 trade deadline, the closer role in America’s heartland goes to Carlos Hernández. Any fantasy baseball manager looking to add cheap saves should look no further. Despite Hernández blowing the save opportunity Tuesday, he still got the win. Don’t be deterred by that outing alone. For those who like to rely on closers with SP eligibility, Hernández fits right into that classic mold. Add Hernández now before he gets snatched up from the waiver wire.
Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland Athletics
Esteury Ruiz is the future of stolen bases in MLB. He’s rehabbing right now, going 3-5 Monday night with a steal before going 0-4 in Tuesday’s game. Ruiz is looking sharp and should be back in Oakland very soon as he gets back to swiping bags like only Ruiz can do in fantasy baseball. Ruiz is a must-add player in 10-teamers and deeper strictly for his ability to tip the balance of steals in the favor of his fantasy team. Especially in H2H leagues.
Taj Bradley, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
This season has shown moments of strikeout prowess for Taj Bradley, but also a lot of harsh rookie lessons that are common in MLB. After Bradley was ripped by the Astros last weekend, it was likely Bradley would be sent down to find himself or whatever they made up the last time they demoted Bradley earlier this year. For now, he needs to be dumped in redraft leagues.
