Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Matty Davis’ Weekly Hitter Planner. Also, I’ve started a weekly video compliment to this article. Each week a new episode will be live at 6 p.m. ET every Saturday on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Take advantage of the live chat in real-time to ask questions related to this week’s article or for questions you have for the following week’s action.
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. Every Tuesday we dream a little dream in pursuit of the ultimate…a league championship! I am going to channel the memory of the people who incredibly gave their lives for the D-Day invasion in Normandy on June 6, 1944 as a source of inspiration today. Let’s dive into the latest points of interest in the realm of fantasy baseball for the week of June 5, 2023.
Jake Burger Desperately Trying to Get Pedro Grifol’s Attention
Inevitably, Irrevocably
Just like one of my all-time favorite shows Seinfeld, I believe continuity increases the overall enjoyment of the product for the consumer. Last week I revealed which players had unlocked various achievements after the first 60 days of the 2023 season. This time around I want to provide insight about certain players who are teetering on the brink of no longer being what they once were over those first 60 days. Baseball has a wicked sense of humor. For hitters specifically, playing the game at the highest level means a player accepts that a slump of an indeterminate amount of time will likely come calling at some point in the season. What often separates the elite hitters from the players labeled with the dreaded quad-A moniker is their ability to accept the implied failure of hitting a baseball that darts across home plate in all kinds of ways. As the legendary Pirate Wille “Pop” Stargell once stated, “They give you a round bat and they throw you a round ball and they tell you to hit it square.”
So let’s review some hitters who have fallen on hard times to find out if they are going to get through their current slump or wallow in it for a month or more. And yes, it may look like I’m cherry-picking stats to fit my storyline, but I’m just doing like Twitter taught me to do: take an arbitrary period of statistical output and shoehorn it in to fit my needs. I will also explore each player’s schedule for June to make some unfounded prognostications on whether that schedule will help or hurt their chances going forward. Let’s begin:
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
Since May 2, Jarred Kelenic has a wRC+ of 96 (100 is league average). Over his first 105 PA Kelenic had a 175 wRC+. Clearly Kelenic has fallen on hard times. But they’re not so hard that Kelenic is a lost cause. Yes, he has a 35.5% K rate since May 2, but he still is just under league average when it comes to producing runs. Most fantasy managers will take that in comparison to how José Abreu or Jean Segura started the first six weeks of the season with a 37 wRC+. Over the rest of June, the Mariner’s weakest opponent is probably the White Sox or the Nationals. Kelenic may possibly face the likes of Jesús Luzardo, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, Tyler Wells or MacKenzie Gore. June will be a crucial month for Kelenic this season as he will be at arguably his lowest point of the season.
Verdict: Playoff-bound Seattle needs Kelenic to pull through. His ability to go to all fields and his HHR will see him through safely to the other side.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
As of today, Matt Chapman has a 137 wRC+ for the season! He’s been one of the stories of the first 60 days with a 60.5% HHR and a 20.4% barrel rate. It would seem that with a profile like that Chapman would be in double-digits in dongs already. He is not — 8 homers is all he has mustered so far. To pile on, he has cooled since May 2, with a wRC+ of 70 over that time. Ten of his 24 hits over that period have been XBH, giving him 22 doubles on the year. Chapman’s barrel rate and HHR have dipped over this period as well. Toronto’s schedule is jacked with the only reprieve this month being three games at home versus Oakland later in June.
Verdict: Baseball is hard. Chapman crushes the ball. Everything will be just fine. Expect more power soon too.
Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox
There should be a celebration on the boardwalk because Luis Robert Jr. has already played in 58 games, 10 short of the 68 he played in all of 2021, 40 short of the 98 he played in last year. Of course, the expectation for Robert has always been far beyond pouring champagne over our heads just for cracking 100 games played. Again, a 120 wRC+ for Robert on the season, but a 68 wRC+ since May 15. Like most slumps he is whiffing a lot (26 K’s) while not being able to draw walks (3). In June, the Pale Hose will face NYY, MIA, LAD, SEA, TEX, BOS and LAA! Welcome to hell! Robert’s IFFB rate since May 15 is 26%. That’s a classic indicator of something being amiss in his approach.
Verdict: Robert will soon break free of this down period. If there is any way to pry him loose from the manager who has him, do it now!
Nolan Gorman, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
Fully loaded with the power potential to be a perennial slugging 2B, Nolan Gorman showed why people think that of him to start the year. Gorman has already matched his dong total of 14 from last season. With a .908 OPS and a 146 wRC+ to boot, Gorman is clearly in the midst of a breakout season. Right? Well, the premise in this segment is obvious by now. Since May 22, Gorman has been in a funk. His season-long K rate of 27% has jumped to 34% over this recent stretch along with a 50 wRC+. Gorman gets CIN at home this weekend which should help his cause before the Cardinals do battle with the SF, @NYM, @WAS, CHC and HOU.
Verdict: Despite the plethora of positional players St. Louis has to play with, Gorman has still consistently been in the upper third of their lineup. Oli Marmol is a real wild card, but Gorman’s power is as advertised. It will be stunning if he doesn’t hit the 30-homer mark this year.
Brent Rooker, OF, Oakland Athletics
There are fantasy managers reading this right now who are questioning why it’s worth even analyzing Brent Rooker’s current cold streak. He certainly fits the mold of the guy who overachieved out of nowhere. I was as skeptical as anybody else, but I actually bought in because Rooker appeared to make tangible changes by pulling the ball more and selling out for power. With the shift out of the picture, Rooker could thrive. Yet, he couldn’t maintain his ridiculous pace in April. He hasn’t hit a homer since May 12, but he still has a wRC+ of 141 on the season. Since May 2, Rooker has 42 K’s to 12 BB, giving him a 34.7% K rate over that time. Oakland in June faces @MIL, TB, PHI, @CLE, @TOR.
Verdict: Rooker is sitting more of late against RHP. Oakland has plenty of lefty hitters to start over Rooker. He is still their most feared hitter (which isn’t saying much). If he doesn’t reclaim more playing time in June, the party is over.
James Outman, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s been a minute since James Outman made fantasy managers happy. It turns out even Dodgers can have a rough go of it. Outman produced a 160 wRC+ over his first 119 PA with 7 dongs and 14 XBH combined. Of course, there is a but. The but is: Since May 2, Outman has 2 homers with a 50 wRC+ and a 36.5% K rate. That’s why Jonny DeLuca got the call. Outman is in danger of a platoon situation now. The good news is the Dodgers play a series in the two best ballparks for hitting in the Majors: this week at Great American Bozo Park and at the end of the month in COORS.
Verdict: Outman is still developing as a big leaguer. He has serious talent, but he is a serious whiffer. The slump feels like it’s coming to a close though. Don’t fear Jonny DeLuca.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B, New York Yankees
In this case, Anthony Rizzo is a seasoned veteran — there are likely few who are concerned about him bouncing back. Still, since May 15 he has a 34% K rate, a wRC+ of 82 and 2 walks compared to 22 K’s. For the season he has a 138 wRC+ with 12 homers and a .293/.365/.484 triple slash. Yes, Rizzo collided with Fernando Tatis Jr. recently at first base, but Rizzo’s troubles began prior to that. The Yankees are going to be challenged the rest of June after their series with the White Sox this week. They take on the Red Sox both home and away, a brief Subway series in Queens, the Mariners and Texas at home.
Verdict: Rizzo is a classic veteran with a solid batter’s eye. Slumps are implied in any hitter’s profile. Rizzo will move past this, and he will be needed — especially if Aaron Judge goes on the shelf.
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Joey Wiemer, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Joey Wiemer got the prospect lovers all hot and bothered when he was called up two days into the season after Luis Urías popped his hammy on opening day in Chicago. I was not one of those people interested in Wiemer’s bat. He was a big whiffer in his minor league days, which concerned me (whiffs are bad). Lately though Wiemer is making more contact, with at least one hit in six straight games. Wiemer has 9 pilfered bags this year too. This is the right time to be in business with him while it lasts. Expect more power too before the week is out. Wiemer is only rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues.
Nestor Cortes, SP, New York Yankees
2023 has not been kind to the mustachioed wonder in the Bronx. Nestor Cortes’ last start against the Mariners was a solid win, but now even his own manager said he would likely end up on the IL. His SIERA of 4.50 shows that his 5.15 ERA may not be indicative of how he has performed. Stay close to the Yankee beat writers to get the word on Cortes finally hitting the IL or not.
Luken Baker, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
The 26-year-old made his MLB debut over the weekend in Pittsburgh, going 2-4. He followed that up with a 1-4 effort in Texas. Baker had 53 K’s to 43 BB at AAA Memphis along with 18 taters over 244 PA this year. Dude can absolutely rake. Once again, another quality hitting thumper (6-foot-4, 265 pounds) clogs up the Cardinals’ depth chart. Baker can rake. He’s worth adding for the moment to see if he can impress enough to stick around. Worth a shot in 14-teamers and deeper.
Reese Olson, SP, Detroit Tigers
Please know that this is not any Tigers bias consuming me. I spent some hefty chunks in FAAB over the weekend to add Reese Olson to some of my squads. There is more going on here than his solid debut against the White Sox. Olson has an excellent changeup, which was verified by the 6 whiffs he got on 9 swings on that pitch. Overall Olson induced 12 swinging strikes in his debut. His pitch mix along with his ability to keep the walks down have me very excited (In 119 IP at AA last year he had 168 K’s to 38 BB). Eduardo Rodriguez could be out for another 6 weeks yet and Alex Faedo just hit the IL. The rotation definitely has a place for Olson. For now. Remember that Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal are going to be back by the end of the month or the beginning of July. If Olson flourishes though as I expect he will, he will force the Tigers’ hand.
Vidal Bruján, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Unfortunately, Brandon Lowe hit the IL Monday because of more back issues. I love Lowe as a player, but back problems are chronic, and this back issue is not new this year. As much as I love his bat, I think it’s time to step away from him this year. That’s good news for Vidal Bruján though, as he replaced Lowe on the active roster, going 0-4 Monday at Boston. Bruján has little power to offer, but he showed an excellent ability to get on base at AAA this year with a 14% BB rate. Drawing walks can lead to steals for Bruján. Those are the two useful skills he can provide for fantasy purposes.
AJ Smith-Shawver, SP, Atlanta Braves
I assume almost everybody was rooting for Mike Soroka. Unfortunately, he did show the Braves that he was up to the challenge in The Show. Now it looks like the recently promoted AJ Smith-Shawver may get the nod later this week. Smith-Shawver is a talented 20-year-old, but he only pitched 69 innings last year. There is going to be a ceiling on his innings as the season progresses. Take advantage of his ability while he is in use, but don’t expect him to be a starter that can be trusted when the H2H playoffs come around.
Trevor Story, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox
It seems that Adalberto Mondesi is getting all the hype, but Trevor Story is moving closer to returning from his elbow surgery. The word now is that Story could be a DH for Boston before he is used in the field. Manager Alex Cora said, “I’m not saying no. We always leave the door open for stuff like that.” Enmanuel Valdez may suffer when Story returns. As far as Mondesi, who the hell knows.
Miami Marlins Rotation
My patience has paid off as Trevor Rogers is looking to return to the Miami rotation possibly at the end of this week. I started Rogers on my Main Event team because I am desperate and because I think Rogers will get the go ahead after dominating over 5 IP in his last rehab start at AAA Jacksonville. For the record, there was someone named Isaac Azout who covers the Marlins who said that Rogers will pitch in Jacksonville this weekend. I don’t blame Kim Ng for delaying her decision on this. Eury Pérez has been as advertised and Braxton Garrett has been making his case over the last month. I expect a six-man rotation for the moment, unless Ng told Perez from the start that they wanted to limit his innings.
Jackson Kowar, RP, Kansas City Royals
Remember this dude? He’s back! Jackson Kowar was recalled last week. His first appearance was a 2-inning effort with 2 K’s at home against the Rockies. Kowar hasn’t started an MLB game since 2021 and only started once at AAA this year. He’s a reliever now. The former first-round pick is still only 26. I expect little to nothing from Kowar, but in SVHLD leagues he might be of use.
Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
There is news about Sal Frelick as manager Craig Counsell said that “by the third week of June” Frelick could be back in action. He still hasn’t debuted with the big club, so he will return to AAA Nashville first. Milwaukee really needs more offensive firepower. Frelick may struggle initially with his repaired thumb, but I expect Frelick to get the call by the beginning of July barring an injury setback.
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
The Rangers moved Jacob deGrom to the 60-day IL Monday. As soon as I saw that, I only had one thought: The Rangers are absolutely planning to make the playoffs. DeGrom being available for them later in the season would be all that mattered. Tuesday, all of these hopes went up in smoke as the Rangers announced that deGrom will have Tommy John surgery. It turns out that I was wrong on all counts. deGrom is most likely toast until at least August of 2024. Cue the endless feed of “I told you so” tweets.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Another rookie pitcher making his MLB debut in 2023. Despite debuting at home in Great American Bozo Park, Andrew Abbott was able to go 6 innings and secure his first career win. He also nailed down the QS. However, he did walk 4 Brewers hitters. A second-round pick in 2021, Abbott has moved quickly to The Show. That control could unleash more problems later on when he makes his next start. Yet, the results are what matters right now. Definite add in 14-teamers and deeper.
Hayden Wesneski, SP, Chicago Cubs
Justin Steele’s unfortunate IL stint has opened the door for Hayden Wesneski to get another shot with the Cubs. Wesneski had a 4.81 ERA with the Cubs in his first effort this year with a 5.66 FIP. Plus he was crushed by the long ball, surrendering 10 homers in 43 IP. This time around Wesneski needs some better luck and more consistency. He is loved by a lot of fantasy baseball analysts, but he might not have many starts with the big club if Steele returns as manager David Ross expects. Tuesday night at the Angels he will take the bump. He’s definitely worth streaming.
Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants
Coors Field awaits the Giants hitters this week, so you know Joc Pederson is fired up to get back to the active roster. Pederson should be activated Tuesday. Teammate Michael Conforto has been dealing with a heel issue over the last four games but did make a pinch hit appearance Sunday. Even if Conforto (who has been playing much better over the last three weeks) plays, Joc at least has a spot at DH.
Eric Lauer, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
It’s been mostly a bogus year for Eric Lauer. Trust me. I know. I drafted him all over thinking he would be a great value for K’s. Dumb. Anyways, Lauer is scheduled to pitch a rehab effort Tuesday. Expect Lauer to pitch at a minimum two rehab performances before he returns. Julio Teheran pitched pretty well Monday in CIN for the Brew Crew, but Lauer should return to a starting job over Colin Rea or Adrian Houser.
Minnesota Twins Rotation
What a difference a year makes! The Twins now have plenty of starting pitching options to choose from. Kenta Maeda is still working through a rehab assignment that will take another turn or two before he returns. Louie Varland has been quite a revelation this season. A 3.51 ERA paired with a 3.76 SIERA definitely plays. Even in 12-teamers. Then Bailey Ober has been even better from a ratio perspective. Much like the Marlins, what will Minnesota do when Maeda is ready to return? Unlike what I said with the Marlins, I think Maeda could be in the bullpen upon his return. From a fantasy perspective, Maeda is third behind Ober and Varland.
Will Brennan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Having hit safely in his last six games, Brennan is providing a spark for Cleveland offensively. Man did they need it! Brennan hit a 2-run homer against Minnesota last weekend. More power should come from his bat, but he can more comfortably be added for batting average support in 14-teamers and deeper. With 5 steals on the year, there will be more in that department too.
Alex Reyes, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
There has been little information released on the former All-Star closer lately. I only bring this up to plant the seed now that Reyes could still end up as a factor in their bullpen. His shoulder surgery was back in May 2022. Reyes has to be close to ramping up to attempt his return. Stay close to the people who cover the Dodgers for more.
