Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble AND knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!
It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ With Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Wednesday, you and I become partners as we litigate our way through each case in fantasy baseball toward the ultimate prize … a league championship! With that in mind, similar to Spencer Strider making his nana proud on Monday night, it’s time to explore the fantasy baseball realm with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind!
If I Could Be Like Wander
It’s Gonna Be May
Baseball is a game tied to the months it is played in. By the next time I write this lovely article again, it’s going to be May. So I have to get my Timberlake on now in order to prepare you for the change in months. Some of the hottest players in April will become distant memories in May. It also works the other way. Some of the least-productive players in April will turn it on in May. One thing that everyone should be able to agree on is this: April 2023 has been much more enjoyable than April 2022. The rule changes alone have been beneficial to the game in many ways that make baseball more palatable than it has been in a long time. It reminds me of the band Faith No More. Their original singer was fun. He cared a lot. But once Mike Patton took over lead vocals, they were epic as a band. Almost immediately it became apparent how much more the band could do with the addition of Patton’s legendary vocal range.
Will last year’s hot players in May do it again? Who knows, but I thought it would be fun to look at last May’s statistical heroes. Here are the top home-run hitters from May 2022:
Jorge Soler has gotten off to a solid start in 2023. His pesky back seemed to derail his 2022 season. It would be great news for those rostering Soler if he could keep the power surge going in May. Patrick Wisdom has already had a stellar April. His career whiff rate (36.9%) suggests that another month of power slamming dongs in Wrigley may be questionable. And this is coming from someone who loves Wisdom! A .413 ISO is definitely not sustainable. Christian Walker has been struggling in April, but he does have a series at Coors this weekend. Denver often does the body good for power hitters, so maybe that series propels Walker into a streaking May filled with dongs at ballparks all over MLB? Now let’s see the FIP leaders from last May:
Last May, Nick Pivetta put up an outstanding month, tantalizing those fantasy managers who have always believed that his stuff is special and he should be a top-20 SP. In four starts this year, Pivetta sports a 5.16 FIP on a 4.58 ERA with 4.12 BB/9. The “Sawks’” schedule in May is not kind. They face the Phillies, Braves, Cardinals, Angels and Padres out of division with their only respite being a home series against the Reds at the end of the month. One name on this list from May 2022 that really has me intrigued is Tyler Wells. I have become more and more engrossed with Wells because I love seeing the Orioles kick butt this year, and because Wells is an under-the-radar SP who can stabilize the ratios for any fantasy baseball team. Through 23 IP, he has a BB/9 of 0.77 with an ERA of 2.70 (yes he has a less-intoxicating 3.88 FIP). Baltimore starts May in Kansas City with additional series against the hot Pirates, Rays and Braves. My love for Wells will be tested in May. That’s for sure.
Magnus Ver Magnusson Would Be Proud
As I reviewed the MLB leaders in Max Exit Velocity (EV) so far, these feats of strength remind me of those World’s Strongest Man competitions from the 90s that would air on ESPN seemingly every afternoon after school during my teenage heydays. No doubt I was crushing some Snackwells while sipping on a Snapple as I watched Iceland’s finest Magnus Ver Magnusson pull a firetruck or toss kegs of beer over a wall.
There is little debate anymore about the correlation between powerful contact and fantasy production. The final Max EV leaderboard for 2022 (minimum 50 BBE) has two of the finest fantasy baseball performers from last year on it.
Sure, there are exceptions. No. 6 on this list after the reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge (east coast bias!) was his new teammate Franchy Cordero. Franchy may be one of the most sought-after fantasy baseball assets of all time. Franchy Truthers are still active to this day! And when Franchy provides output like he already did earlier this April with four homers in five games, his devoted followers only become more rabid. Yet, as I always say in this game, context is king! Franchy can crush the ball, but then we need to include his whiff rate and contact numbers to put together the entire picture. Sometimes though, it’s just fun to see who the strongest man in baseball is. So here are the top-15 hardest hit baseballs across MLB as of April 24:
Recognition to my guy Jake Burger, who was barely outdone by Matt Olson. Definitely have to pour one out for O’Neil Cruz, who should be dazzling baseball fans every night with his incredible talent. Two names are outliers on this list. One is 33-year-old journeyman Taylor Motter. Who cares?
The other name, though, is a player who should be fresh in your minds for securing a double-dong effort Monday night in an 11-0 thrashing of the Marlins. Similar to Franchy, Sam Hilliard has his own truthers out there too. Full disclosure: I am one of those truthers. We call ourselves Hilliard’s Hopefuls. We believe that the Rockies are a bozo organization who suffer from poor player development skills. Meanwhile, Atlanta is a first-rate operation (outside of that one time their GM violated international signing rules). I am not sounding the alarms to pick up Hilliard across the entire fantasy baseball realm just because he crushed one of the 15 hardest hit balls in MLB. So far. No. His K rate is god awful right now (39.2%). Plus, reigning NL ROY Michael Harris is close to returning. He ran full speed on the bases Monday. Hilliard could end up in a platoon with Kevin Pillar. If that happens, I do favor Hilliard over Pillar. The lesson here is to keep an eye on who is smashing the baseball. Then do a complete context-oriented overview of that player’s swing-and-miss abilities plus playing time. There are a lot of placeholders across MLB.
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Tanner Bibee – After I was misdirected by Konnor Pilkington possibly getting the nod for Cleveland Wednesday, Bibee ended up getting the call after all. Bibee is the real deal! He dominated High-A and Double A during 2022 before debuting at Triple-A this year. After 15.1 dominant innings, Cleveland decided to bring him in to fill the void for their beaten-up rotation. Bibee and Logan Allen have both been added to the Cleveland rotation from the minors over the last week. Don’t forget about the young pitcher Peyton Battenfield (who I wrote this sweet song for recently) as well! There is no doubt Bibee is a must-add based on his talents. The only concern is how long will he stay in the rotation. Tristan McKenzie is close to throwing bullpen sessions and is making good progress with his shoulder injury.
Mexico City Magic – The Padres and Giants will play a series in Mexico City this weekend. The altitude in Mexico City is 7,349 feet! It stands to reason that Alex Cobb and Joe Musgrove may get pounded in that series. We know MLB wants to put on a show, but we can’t be certain they will tamper with the baseballs. Then again, in that type of altitude it doesn’t matter. Unless a humidor will be used for this brief series, expect a lot of offense. This means you may want to sit any probable starters for this series. This is a warning for all fantasy managers to heed.
Luis Medina – This fella will make his MLB debut Wednesday against the Angels. Medina came over in the Frankie Montas trade last summer. He’s a classic whiff-inducer who also walks a boatload of dudes. Oakland has nothing to lose by going with the youth movement over guys like Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski. Spec add in redraft. Nothing more.
Pavin Smith – The Dbacks pulled a Major League III on Jake McCarthy. They sent him back to the minors. ZING! I wasn’t a fan of McCarthy during draft season mostly due to the log jam of players they had coming into camp. Enter Pavin Smith, who was already a one-time regular for Arizona in 2021 before he fell out of favor last season. Now he’s playing almost everyday and making the most of it. Smith is more of a doubles hitter than a dong ripper. But that’s just fine for fantasy purposes. He has seven walks in 41 PA and is making solid contact. 14-teamers and deeper needs only apply.
Matt Mervis – I stashed Mervis in my NFBC Main Event league last Sunday. Mervis has 15 BB to 17 K’s at AAA. He is the goods, and the Cubs know that he is an upgrade offensively over Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini. However, Mervis is NOT on the 40-Man roster, and the Cubs are off to a solid 13-9 start. So I may have been a bit early, as Mervis might not be up for another month still. I was jonesing for a 1B though, so to me the risk is worth it. Every fantasy manager has to look at their own roster to determine the risks they can tolerate before adding Mervis.
Tarik Skubal – The Tiger’s lefty is scheduled to pitch in his first bullpen session this week. He’s still roughly 6-8 weeks away from returning to the rotation in Detroit. It’s possible it could be sooner, but being that the Tigers have no immediate future of contention (despite playing better than most expected in April), there is little incentive to expedite his return. If you have an IL spot to burn, pick Skubal up. Otherwise, just wait to pounce like everybody else.
Justin Verlander – A one-time rehab stint is all that will be required to have Justin Verlander pitching for the Mets again. That’s good news for people who like good news. Really it’s great news for everybody who took a risk on the old man. Remember he is coming off being a key part of a World Series winner in Houston, so he definitely has more to give to fantasy managers.
Brewers Injuries – There is a great sense of sadness in the air when I think about what could have been for Sal Frelick. Garrett Mitchell hurt his shoulder, and then right when that door opened for Sal Frelick, he simultaneously jammed his left thumb. The baseball gods went too far! That is cruel. Now both outfielders have had surgery to fix their ailments, with Mitchell likely lost for the year. Meanwhile, Luis Urías was transferred to the 60-day IL with his bogus hammy meaning he won’t be back until the start of June. This is good news for Joey Wiemer, but I am suspect of his ability to make enough contact. Don’t forget that OF Tyrone Taylor will start a rehab assignment next Tuesday. He is a player to add because he will definitely be needed when he returns.
Adbert Alzolay – For the March 29 edition of this article, I published some random player expectations. One of those expectations called for Alzolay to finish 2023 with 20 saves. The back end of the Cubs bullpen has been on fire lately. Not the NBA Jam on fire either. Alzolay’s slider has merit as a whiff connoisseur, so what else does David Ross and company need to see? He has the out pitch to lock down the job. If it’s not physical gifts holding him back, maybe the Cubs have concerns about Alzolay’s ability to handle the ninth inning? Not every pitcher has the mentality to close out MLB games. The Cubs could be thinking about using him as a starter again, but that argument holds less weight now that Chicago has a more stable starting rotation. In the end, this comes down to money. The Cubs want to get their money’s worth out of free-agent additions Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger. It may take a little more time, but Alzolay’s day is approaching.
Taj Bradley – Don’t worry fantasy managers! After these messages, Taj will be right back. The Rays want to get Bradley set on a five-man rotation as he was previously locked in on a six-man rotation. RIIIIIIGHT. Sounds like classic service-time manipulation to me. And the Rays can afford to do so because they have gotten off to such an incredible start. Bradley is an absolute hold though. Maybe in 10-teamers he can be dropped. Dropping Bradley now will likely cause significant regret later for 12-teamers and deeper.
Brandon Pfaadt – Yes, Tommy Henry got the nod Monday after MadBum was DFA’ed last week. For fantasy managers rostering Pfaadt, Henry’s dismal performance against the Royals was good news. It gets better too, as Henry has to go to Coors this weekend to pitch. Yet, this is how the story goes. Everybody knows it. Fantasy managers will just have to wait a little longer for Pfaadt to make his debut. Just know this – when he finally gets the call, he will not be heading back to the minors. Right!? Please God, let that be true!
Kyle Hendricks – The once reliable starter with the excellent changeup is now a fantasy afterthought. Hendricks is beginning his rehab assignment, which means barring any delays, he will be back on the north side by mid-May. Hendricks is coming back from a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder. That sounds scary, doesn’t it? Hendricks sports a career 3.46 ERA! That’s stunning. It’s like finding out that John Mayer has dated almost everybody in Hollywood. Like, really? That guy? The problem is he hasn’t been reliable since the 2020 COVID-19 bozo year. It’s possible the 33-year-old could be a source for wins and ratio stabilization, but it’s a long shot.
Antonio Senzatela – I doubt anybody outside of Rockies country cares all that much, but Senzatela started his rehab assignment Tuesday after tearing his ACL in August of 2022. Did you know the Rockies signed him to a five-year, $50 million deal? The Rockies almost make it too easy to rip on them. Senzatela pitches at Coors, so that is pretty much all you need to know. With a career K/9 under 6, the only time you will be using him is as a streamer. On the road.
