Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the 2023 Opening Day eve edition of Groovin’ With Govier! If you’re new here (regulars: skip), I dissect various players and strategies related to the current fantasy baseball landscape. Don’t forget about our stellar fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to Eric Cross, Matty Davis, Vlad Sedler and many more FTN whiz-kids! Much like Shohei Ohtani slamming the door on Mike Trout in the WBC, it’s on to new business as opening day is finally here.
Honey, We’re Gonna Be up 500 by Midnight
Draft season is almost finished, but I have to share a few words about my trip to Las Vegas last weekend. It was the 20th anniversary for the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) held at the soon-to-be defunct Mirage Casino & Hotel on the strip. I was there to draft my main event team Saturday morning at the same time seven other drafts were simultaneously taking place. Several other live drafts are peppered throughout the weekend with various price points and formats available to all drafters who are willing. The main event is a $1,750 entry 15 team 5×5 roto FAAB league with no trades that offers a first-place prize of $7k for winning the league along with the carrot of the overall prize for the entire pool of entries which comes in at $200,000 this year!
My Main Event draft was filled with veteran drafters who blew up my queue every chance they got. Remember that all eight drafts are happening at once inside the massive conference center at The Mirage. Each draft has a moderator calling each pick verbally, someone inputting the picks into the draft software and a massive draft board projected on a screen that is roughly 20 feet by 30 feet in size. It can be an overwhelming experience for some, especially for any person who is easily distracted. I was drafting out of the 15 spot, which people seem to associate me with now even though I wanted to be in the middle of the draft this year.
The final product after my draft was finished left me feeling a bit disappointed. So many of the players I thought I could get at certain points in the draft just didn’t make it back to me. The best example of this relates to Josh Naylor. He was drafted five picks before my pick in the 15th round. In the prior two rounds, I decided to let Naylor take the long way home one more time as I took Trevor Rogers and Jon Gray. My starting pitching was lacking depth at that moment. Sandy Alcantara and Logan Webb were my only starting pitchers before the Rogers/Gray double dip. I felt if I didn’t reinforce my starting pitching, I would be in even worse shape later on. Yet, I didn’t have a 1B yet either. By letting Naylor get snagged in Round 15, I forced myself into taking Seth Brown at the end of round 15. Brown is not a welcome to hell meme player, but I really didn’t plan to draft him. If I had waited longer and skipped Brown, my remaining options at 1B would have been Spencer Torkelson, DJ LeMahieu, Jared Walsh and Harold Ramírez. Are any of those that much worse than Seth Brown? It’s important to note at that junction I was also looking to beef up the power sector of my team. There was an argument to be made for Tork and LeMahieu being worth waiting for. All of this could have been avoided if I wrote out a draft plan with contingencies so I could see it in front of me in real-time. I knew which positions I could afford to wait on, but I still ended up with a weighted feeling of angst. The only reason that angst thrived was due to my much higher confidence level in Naylor for 2023. I have been trying to add him everywhere since early March after I realized he might return top 5 value at first this year. Maybe Seth Brown will blow my mind this season. Maybe not.
This One Goes Out to the One(s) I Love
There are few pleasures more likely to satisfy than the pleasure I receive from making a successful prediction in relation to a player’s output for the upcoming season. Being on the brink of opening day 2023, it’s time for me to give you some random expectations for the 2023 season. Remember, all of these are purely speculative. There are no means of certitude connected to these mystic offerings.
Jonathan India Goes 25/25/.400
I drafted Jonathan India on every team I drafted this season until my main event last weekend. Injuries happen. In 2023, India will take another step forward thanks partly to playing home games at the best hitter’s park in baseball. He will hit leadoff, crank dongs, take walks, steal bases and dominate the diamond with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind! The .400 OBP marker is doable. He attained a .376 mark as a rookie with an 11% BB rate that declined to 7% last year. With better contact, improved luck and a return to a double-digit BB rate, India can easily secure being on base at a 40% clip. The steals are the challenge here. India went 12 for 15 in stolen base attempts in 2021. With an easier path to second this season thanks to the rule changes, India can double his rookie year mark for swipes. Plus, he won’t be hampered by his hammy like he was during 2022.
Julio Urías Leads MLB In Wins
The Dodgers won 111 games last year. I couldn’t believe that when I double checked, because they were such a forgettable team in 2022. Maybe they’re always forgettable now because they’ve been so consistently good for a decade? Outside of 11 wins from team leader Rich Hill in 2018 (and the bozo pandemic season from 2020), the Dodgers have had a pitcher with at least 16 wins every season dating back to 2013. A starting pitcher from the Dodgers leading the league in wins is a safe bet. Julio Urías will be money this year.
Ozzie Albies Returns First-Round Value
During my first draft back in late February, I was too stoked about drafting Ozzie Albies as he was being discounted into the 50s by ADP because of last year’s unfortunate injury luck. Screw that! This dude was being drafted as a first-round talent coming into 2022. Now he’s not that guy anymore? I’m not buying that. Yes, he was delayed on his path to elite fantasy territory due to the broken leg, but the road to Wellville is open once more. Albies has every reason in the book to fill up the stat sheet for fantasy managers every day. Dude is going to crush it this year.
Robbie Ray Tops Career-Best 25.4% K-BB
Robbie Ray is another player I wish I had snagged in my main event draft. All signs point to him taking his game up another level with improved control and better strike throwing consistency with his 4FB. Ray won the AL Cy Young in 2021 with that 25.4% K-BB ratio. There were a lot of elements of luck for Ray in 2021 with his 90% LOB percentage, his .268 BABIP and his reduction in BB/9 to a career-best 2.42. These efforts appear sustainable thanks to his ability to adjust his mechanics smoothly while also working to increase the use of his 2FB. At 31 years old, all signs are pointing to Ray’s best season yet for a World Series contending team.
Alex Bregman Finishes With 145 wRC+ Or Better
I am not writing this just because Alex Bregman fell to me at pick 105 in my main event last weekend. I already have him on my team, so no prediction will change that. What can change is Bregman’s fortune when it comes to health. Injuries have left a dour and unsettling feeling in the air when it comes to Bregman. It might even shock some of you (I mean me) to know that Bregman played in 155 games last year! As Bregman approaches his 29th birthday on Opening Day, watch as he sets the tone instantly with a couple dongs to start the year off. Even if he fails to dazzle opening day, Bregman will be needed more than ever with Jose Altuve unavailable until July. I think he responds well to that challenge as he is now one of the elder statesmen on the Astros. He produced a 136 wRC+ last year without much fanfare. He won’t return to the absurdity that was the 2019 juicy juice ball, but he will be a top-five 3B at season’s end.
Trevor Rogers Sustains 3.25 ERA Or Better
Trevor Rogers has the fastball, the sweet change and his nasty slide piece. Last year his BABIP, HR/9 and HR/FB ratio all ballooned from his outstanding 2021 campaign. So naturally many fantasy managers are stuck in between the two seasons to find out which one is the real Rogers. They are both examples of Rogers, but his 2023 season will define who the real Rogers is. He had an unlucky run last season as his 4.36 FIP was over a run lower than his ERA. Rogers has been my starting pitcher to target beginning around pick 200ish all preseason. I wasn’t a Rogers guy in 2021 and I wasn’t willing to pay his inflated price in 2022. This year though, his porridge is just right for me.
Nick Castellanos Finishes Top-10 NL MVP
All the signs from 2022 point to a resurgence for Nick Castellanos in 2023. I wrote about him here a couple weeks ago as a guy I was originally avoiding in drafts without merit. After I realized the mistake I had made in my process, I flipped the script immediately. Castellanos popped out way beyond his career norm last year and barrelled the ball considerably less than he has in the past. Castellanos is not past his prime by any means. With new pal Trea Turner in tow, I expect him to crush the ball in 2023.
Alexis Díaz Saves 30 Games
Last year, the Reds’ bullpen was in a race to the bottom with the Red Sox for the worst pen in MLB. Alexis Díaz was technically a part of that crew. Doesn’t matter. In 2023 he will do the impossible and make Reds manager David Bell commit to him as the closer all season long. I know that sounds like pure fiction, but seeing is believing. Get ready for a great season from a closer named Diaz — just not the one you were expecting two months ago.
Matt Chapman Lead Blue Jays In Homers
I refuse to call these bold predictions simply because of the tired nature of that moniker, but I would understand if certain people wanted to label this one as such. For me, it’s simple: Matt Chapman stung the ball with an outstanding 50% HHR in 2022 while getting quite unlucky on lineouts that were tattooed. Add in the fence adjustments at Rogers Centre to go with Toronto’s lineup and what remains is a recipe for elite fantasy production in the power department. Chapman is beyond boring to some fantasy managers, but to me he is a consistently dedicated man who loves holding down the hot corner. I am aware the Jays have some of the best assets in fantasy baseball in their lineup, but Chapman was unlucky last year while still spitting out 117 wRC+ with 27 bombs. Mix in Chapman’s ability to stay on the field and the end result is lots of homers.
Shintaro Fujinami Finishes Top 3 AL ROY
There has been a lot made of Shintaro Fujinami’s wildness in Japan where he developed the dreaded yips. After bouncing back in 2022, Fujinami is now in Oakland on a modest $3 million deal to prove himself to the rest of MLB. He will initially start once a week just to get him comfortable with his new surroundings. In the Nippon Japanese League, starting pitchers pitch every six days. Fujinami has great stuff to go with an intimidating presence on the mound. I understand many purists don’t recognize him as a rookie, but he is by the letter of the MLB law. Get ready for entertaining Oakland baseball every time Fujinami takes the bump.
Adbert Alzolay Finishes With 20 Saves
The Cubs have modest investments in their bullpen in 2023 with Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer. They are nice dudes, but Adbert Alzolay is the guy who should be the closer in Chicago. His slider is to die for and he doesn’t seem to hold up to the scrutiny of being a consistent starter. This prediction is based solely on Alzolay’s talent along with my lack of hope that Fulmer or anybody else in that bullpen can fend Alzolay off. Hopefully David Ross and company figure this out sooner than later.
Detroit Tigers Win 70 Games
This one is dumb, but humor me. The over/under for the Tigers currently sits at 68.5. It’s not much, but I expect the Tigers to be much better than the hellscape that was last season. Even if I’m wrong, who cares. Can’t I just enjoy my tiny sense of optimism as Opening Day approaches? The pitching depth for Detroit will be the reason this happens. Yes, you read that right. They actually have some depth in the rotation and with upcoming pitchers like Wilmer Flores. The other reason they reach 70 wins will be pitching coach Chris Fetter, who is an underrated assistant. In Fetter I trust!
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Zach McKinstry
The Tigers were one of the last teams to finalize their Opening Day roster as they are starting off in Tampa Bay and didn’t have to go very far from Lakeland (which is 35 minutes away) to make their 2023 season debut. That’s why they held out as long as they did. Another reason is that their roster is just so bad they couldn’t come to terms. Enter Zach McKinstry after he was acquired for peanuts from the Cubs. He hit .199 in 185 PA last season. McKinstry was a perfect 7-7 in steals last year, so he has that going for him which is nice. Akil Baddoo was sent down to Toledo, which is a bummer because he was fun to root for. I see little that McKinstry offers here other than versatility. He may go on some random heater during the season, but he’s nothing more than a streamer.
Anthony Volpe
I have to give it up for this dude as I was confident he would not make the Bronx Bombers’ Opening Day roster. He surely did, though. Nothing but respect for this dude and his efforts. Anthony Volpe is going to be at the bottom of the lineup. I still have doubts as to how useful he will be as a fantasy asset this year. I have low expectations and they will remain that way for now at least in redraft leagues.
Joey Gallo
For the first time that I can ever recall, I drafted Joey Gallo last weekend in Vegas. I was at the end of my draft and needed another OF. I figured Gallo was worth the risk since most of the final five picks in a 30-round draft with FAAB may be interchangeable once the season gets rolling. The more I looked at him, the more I thought there was still remaining in his bat. The shift is gone, which is great news for Gallo. Plus he’s been hitting leadoff with Jorge Polanco on the shelf due to a knee issue. Gallo is still only 29 years old with plenty of life left in that bat. I will add Gallo to my watch list in my other leagues to see if he shows signs of life again in Minnesota. Remember that Gallo isn’t far removed from a 38-homer campaign in 2021. He may fit in comfortably in the laid-back atmosphere of the upper midwest.
Keibert Ruiz
The last couple of drafts I completed in March exposed a trend of Keibert Ruiz falling behind Arizona’s Gabriel Moreno. I know that Carson Kelly’s injury inflated the Moreno buzz, but Ruiz is ahead of Moreno in development with comparable skills offensively. This seems like a mistake to me because Ruiz is assured his place as the number one catcher in Washington. Yes, the Nats will be trash in the NL East, but is Ruiz really the 14th best catcher in fantasy this season? Ruiz will surpass expectations as he finishes as a top-seven catcher by season’s end. Remember how hyped he was as a prospect with the Dodgers? Recency bias y’all.
Owen Miller
Sal Frelick did not make the Opening Day roster for the Brewers and that is not cool. One reason for Frelick failing to make The Show had to do with newly acquired Owen Miller making noise in spring. If you remember early last season, Miller came out on fire creating a buzz about him that hyped up wild FAAB numbers for his services. He eventually faded, but for one moment in time Miller was all that and a bag of chips. Miller can also play multiple positions. Another rookie (Brice Turang) did make the roster at 23 years old. Miller is a righty while Turang is a lefty. Looks like we’re headed for platoon city. This situation provides little clarity for fantasy purposes, but I do see Miller being the one who can play more often if he keeps hitting into the regular season.
Will Benson
A highlight for many fantasy managers was seeing one of this spring’s hype machine recipients make the opening day roster for Cincinnati. Will Benson stole 6 bases in 7 tries this spring while going 16-49 at the plate. He also struck out 12 times and did not gain one single free pass. That has to be a fluke though because his stat page is lit up with double-digit walk rates all across the minors. Benson is 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds with a lefty stroke. He was a first-round pick in 2016 by Cleveland who was traded in the offseason by Cleveland after debuting late in 2022. Benson also has a lot of high K rates peppered throughout his minor league stat sheet. People are in love right now and the Reds have opportunities to offer since they stink. Still, I’m not so sure Benson is going to be viable as a fantasy asset in 14-team leagues and deeper.
