Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Today we’re introducing a new column for the duration of spring training through Opening Day. The FTN Fantasy MLB team will discuss fantasy implications from the latest MLB trades and free agent signings.
This first one will cover transactions from Thursday, March 10 through Monday, March 14.
NL East
Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson (1B)
Freddie Freeman remains unsigned as we head into Tuesday, and the trade for Matt Olson likely signifies Freeman will not be returning to Atlanta. Olson will fit in well with the defending World Series champs, likely hitting third in this lineup. A tremendous opportunity to set his career-high in RBI (he had 111 last year), with Ronald Acuña Jr. (eventually) and Ozzie Albies hitting ahead of him. Excluding the pandemic-shortened season, Olson has averaged 37.5 HR, 101 RBI and a .270 average over his last two full seasons. He has a 46.4 DC ADP in the month of March and a slightly higher one (43.4) in 12-team OCs. Expect him to hop up into the third round (31-45 overall) of 15-team Main Event leagues.
Philadelphia Phillies: Odúbel Herrera (OF), Brad Hand (RP)
Odúbel Herrera returns to handle centerfield duties, but the Phillies likely aren’t done adding outfielders. Roster Resource currently has Bryce Harper in one corner and a platoon of Adam Haseley (LH) and Matt Vierling (RH) in the other. Herrera is now 30 years old, and it’s been six years since he swiped double-digit bags (25 in 2016). He put up decent numbers in 124 games (492 PA) last season – 13 HR, 51 RBI, 51 R, 6 SB, .260 – and he is certainly in the mix for the late rounds in 15-team drafts. Not someone to worry about in 12-teamers for now.
Brad Hand signed a one-year deal ($6M) Monday and could find himself in the mix for save opportunities. He ranks fourth in MLB saves since 2018 (103) but likely won’t be the team’s first option with Corey Knebel in the mix. Hand does have much more experience in the role but just isn’t the same guy he was in his heyday (2018-2020) as he saw a massive drop in strikeout rate – from 33-35% over those three seasons to a mere 22% last season. The next two weeks should tell us everything we need to know.
New York Mets: Chris Bassitt (SP), Adam Ottavino (RP)
The Oakland Athletics are in full fire-sale mode, and the Mets were wise enough to scoop up another solid starting pitcher to the rotation. The ballpark transition is a lateral one as Chris Bassitt goes from one amazing pitchers’ park to another. The defense behind him will be better than anything the A’s would have left behind and we should be able to project a couple more wins. I’m still not certain we see another 25% strikeout rate for the season. But the move to a contending team that will provide ample run support leaves me no choice but to move his VDP back up closer to his actual ADP. That’s pick 133 over the last two weeks, which makes him a borderline eight/ninth round arm in 15-team formats.
Washington Nationals: Nelson Cruz (DH), Steve Cishek (RP)
The Boomstick has arrived to the nation’s capital to provide lineup protection for one of the league’s best hitters, Juan Soto. Despite being utility-only and now 41 years old, it would be impossible not to expect draft helium on a guy like Nelson Cruz with an ADP in the 180-200 overall range most of this winter. He smashed 32 dingers in 140 games last season and another 30-90-.265 is a reasonable projection even if he hits a couple of 15-day IL stints. We should expect him to move closer toward fellow UT-only guy Franmil Reyes (ADP 114) over the next two weeks. To be honest, their difference in ADP is much too vast and the current Reyes price has seen quite a bit of helium that may not be as warranted as it may appear. I’d look to jump on a power bat like Cruz’s in the ninth or 10th round of 15-teamers, which is in the 130-150 range.
Manager Dave Martinez would love for Tanner Rainey to close out games for the Nationals this season, so it will be up to Rainey to prove he can harness his problematic (17% BB) control. Steve Cishek will likely be a veteran setup guy but could sneak in a few saves. He teams back up with pitching coach Jim Hickey when they were both with the Cubs in 2018. Cishek posted a solid ERA (3.42) but the WHIP (1.49) and walk rate (13.3%) were horrendous – both were career worsts. Cishek could be a desperation 30th round pick in 15-team, 30-round drafts. Not someone to worry about in 12’s.
NL Central
Cincinnati Reds: Jake Fraley (OF), Justin Dunn (SP)
I’m slightly intrigued with Jake Fraley in a great hitters’ park and the opportunity to rack up some counting categories with more playing time than he would have had in Seattle. I still wouldn’t expect him to play every day, sitting frequently against LHP. Some odd numbers last year. In 265 PA (78 games), he hit 9 HR with 10 SB, a .210 average but a .352 OBP. Most impressive was his 17.4% walk rate. He swiped 22 bags in less than 100 games in the minors in 2019 and 33 in Low-A back in 2016 (in just 55 games). Definitely in the mix for the late rounds for fantasy squads in the need for some speed.
Justin Dunn is a former college reliever and a first-round draft pick of the Mets back in 2016. Mixed results in 11 starts last season – a 3.75 ERA with a 5.02 xERA and 5.61 xFIP. He’s an extreme flyball guy (career 49%) with poor control (15.5%) who will now make half his starts in Great American’s bandbox. Avoid him entirely in all formats.
Chicago Cubs: Andrelton Simmons (SS)
Nothing to see here. Not even as good a defender as he used to be. You may be tempted to FAAB him in 15-teamers off a hot streak, but your best bet is to just forget he’s a fantasy option.
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy (RP)
One of the worst possible landing spots for a guy early deep-league drafters were hoping could grab a clean closing gig. He’s 37 now and returns to a team where he had his best seasons – three consecutive seasons of at least 32 starts back in 2010-2012. Kennedy has been successful since converting into the closer role. He posted 30 saves and a career-high 27.4% K rate with the Royals in 2019 and notched 26 saves last season, mostly with the Rangers. The DBacks signed Mark Melancon a couple months ago and he is still likely the frontrunner to start the season as the closer. But with Kennedy in the mix, there’s simply no way we can confidently draft Melancon in the 120-150 ADP range anymore. I’m personally avoiding the Arizona relievers altogether but would bite on Kennedy if he’s available after 250 ADP. I don’t dislike Melancon as much as many analysts on Twitter seem to, but I also won’t be shocked if Kennedy leads this team in saves. The issue is that this offense is horrendous and save opps may be far in and few between.
Colorado Rockies: Alex Colomé (RP), José Iglesias (SS), Scott Schebler (OF)
It’s hard to imagine Alex Colomé not running away with this closer gig, which means he’s in the discussion in Rounds 25-30 in 12-teamers no matter how gross it may seem. He’s among MLB’s saves leaders over the last half decade but started to show warts in 2020 and it’s been a downward spiral since. Best to be in a position to not need his services on your roto squads because we can already tell that those 5-ER implosions will hit us like a ton of bricks. The only thing standing in his way is a career revival from Carlos Estévez but I’m not holding my breath.
José Iglesias is in the mix for 15-team leagues and perhaps even as an option in the final rounds of 12’s. But in 12-teamers, he’s most likely a streaming option when the Rockies are home. Iglesias is a decent defender and hit double-digit HR/SB. Mostly, he just muddies the waters for Garrett Hampson playing time, which is fine since Hampson is a horrific baseball player. Scott Schebler will try to crack the Opening Day squad on a minor league contract. He hit 30 homers for the Reds back in 2016 but has just 45 plate appearances since the 2018 season. He’s potentially someone who can shatter our dreams of a Sam Hilliard breakout.
San Francisco Giants: Carlos Rodón (SP), Jakob Junis (SP), Carlos Martínez (SP)
The 2022 free agent dominos began to fall with the Giants signing Carlos Rodón to a two-year, $22M contract. Those who drafted Rodón at a good price (140-160 ADP) when his status appeared murky because of injury concerns are ecstatic to see him land in a phenomenal pitchers’ park on a prominent offense. His new ‘min pick’ in the OC is 75 and he now likely won’t make it out of the top-100 overall in the next few weeks of drafts. He’s solidly priced in the range of guys like Yu Darvish, Trevor Rogers, Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo and Alek Manoah. It’s quite the sweet spot for starting pitchers.
Jakob Junis could serve as a multi-inning reliever and is now on our radars in 50-round draft-and-holds. Former stud Carlos Martínez’s career has derailed, and he will look to prove his worth on a minor league contract. All these additions hurt the sneaky value of Tyler Beede, who many of us believed could be a Logan Webb-lite this year. Beede is out of options, by the way.
High-Level (NL)
- Upgrade: Carlos Rodón (all formats), Matt Olson (all), Nelson Cruz (all), Alex Colomé (15’s), Jake Fraley (15’s)
- Downgrade: Andrelton Simmons, Tyler Beede, Garrett Hampson, Mark Melancon, Tylor Megill (NYM SP)
AL East
New York Yankees: Josh Donaldson (3B), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS), Ben Rortvedt (C)
A monster deal for the Yankees, especially considering the Twins will be paying $50M on Josh Donaldson’s remaining contract. Lower-body issues have plagued the former All-Star for quite some time, and that’s a big reason why his 30-HR bat has been widely available after pick-200 overall in draft-and-holds. Making his way to the Bronx Bombers will cloud many drafters’ judgement and make us forget about the fact that he has accumulated more than 550 PA just once since 2016 and that he’s 36 years old. I could see Donaldson settling in the 10th to 11th round range (150-180 overall) in 15-team formats. I might be tricked into buying at the higher price if he’s healthy in spring.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa was traded twice in a 24-hour span over the weekend and finds himself in an intriguing situation with the Yankees. With Gleyber Torres able to cover second base, “IKF” could roll into nearly full-time at-bats as the team’s primary shortstop. Kiner-Falefa can easily swipe 20 bases this season and I’m sure many folks who drafted him hope that he sneaks his way back into catcher eligibility. But I doubt that’s going to happen. Ben Rortvedt is yoked like no other and of course I’ve already seen rumblings on Twitter from Yankee fans who claim they’ve “found their guy.” I’m not so sure about that but it does appear that he’s worth our attention in deep leagues since the Yankees may not be signing any other backstop. So it will be Rortvedt competing with Kyle Higashioka for playing time. Most likely, we’ll have an ideal platoon situation with Rortvedt possibly seeing more of it since he’s the lefty bat.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yusei Kikuchi (SP)
Rogers Centre is not the hitters’ park it once was because of the installation of the humidor there. It’s not quite a lateral park move as T-Mobile Park (formerly Safeco) has been a nice place for pitchers to call home. An interesting tweet from our friend and former NFBC Main Event champ Rob Silver pointed out that Kikuchi had a 2.39 ERA in the nine games his fastball averaged over 96 mph, and 6.64 in the 19 games he was under 95 mph. I guess we see how hard he’s throwing in camp? Going to the Jays doesn’t move the needle much for me. Inconsistent SP like Kikuchi are so difficult to properly time in our starting lineups and it’s a headache I personally won’t want to deal with.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins: Sonny Gray (SP), Gio Urshela (3B), Gary Sánchez (C)
I’m a big fan of Sonny Gray at his 150-170 ADP these last couple of months, and now I’m even more enchanted with the move out of Cincinnati and to the AL Central. In a NFBC OC immediately after this trade, Gray hit a min pick of 142, which is close to his new price range. I’ll be straight forward when I say I don’t see much difference in 2022 output between him and Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi has been going around 110-125 and if Gray stays in the 140’s, I’ll continue to pounce.
Gio Urshela’s value bounces back a tad with more consistent playing time on the horizon. We’ve slightly adjusted his 2022 projections upward and I believe he’s price will slightly rise from the low-300’s where he’s been residing. He offers us great flexibility (3B, SS, CI, MI) and is a sneaky bounce-back candidate with batting average. Urshela hit .314 in 476 PA in 2019 and .298 in 174 PA in 2020. He wasn’t healthy for a good chunk of 2021 yet still hit .267 in 442 PA.
Gary Sánchez gets a park downgrade, but he was already a fantasy team liability we don’t want to hassle with. There are only three hitters since 2019 with batting averages lower than .210 in over 1,000 PA. Rougned Odor (.199), Joey Gallo (.209) and Sanchez (.206). No thanks.
Chicago White Sox: Josh Harrison (2B)
Josh Harrison turns 35 this summer with his best days in the rearview, but there’s some sneaky late-round value in 15-teamers here with his three positions of eligibility (2B, 3B, SS) and nice, new team context. He may not play every day but when several White Sox hitters take their annual pilgrimage to the IL, Harrison will continue to eat up any and all opportunities in the lineup. He’s a career .276 hitter who could hit 10 HR with 10 SB. A perfect late-round guy or in-season streamer. Current ADP is 391.
AL West
Seattle Mariners: Jesse Winker (OF), Eugenio Suárez (3B)
The Mariners are making moves and this one hit us all by surprise. I don’t know anyone who dislikes Jesse Winker, and we are all witness to the breakout last season. Unfortunately, it was cut short with an August injury. Otherwise we’d be looking at a 30-HR, 100-R season with a guy who helps with batting average (.305 last season). The ballpark is a downgrade and there may be some AL adjustment in the short term. Our projections lower his R, HR and AVG totals slightly, but with a tick up in RBI with expectations he hits closer to the middle of the lineup. The Mariners can really mix and match though with Winker, Jarred Kelenic or even Mitch Haniger (who used to lead off for them) handling duties. Still a solid pick in the 90-110 ADP range.
Eugenio Suárez gets the ballpark downgrade as well, but his price was already lower and we know his downside is more severe. I do still believe Suárez is more of a .240-.250 hitter than a Mendoza Line guy, but T-Mobile Park won’t help much. Still, he will get to face a horrendous Texas Rangers and mediocre L.A. Angels staff quite often. A full season should help him produce 35-plus homers with ease, once again.
Texas Rangers: Mitch Garver (C), Martín Pérez (SP)
Those who have been drafting Mitch Garver got a sweet deal even though it may look like a lateral move. I’m pretty sure that Garver will see more plate appearances in Texas than he would have in Minnesota though. Not ideal for those of us who thought Jonah Heim was a sneaky late-round catcher. Garver has 25-plus-homer pop in his bat as we can’t forget he smashed 31 dingers in just 359 PA (91 games) back in 2019.
Oakland Athletics: Cristian Pache (OF), Shea Langeliers (C)
Nothing particularly exciting with Cristian Pache moving to Oakland but perhaps steady at-bats lead to some growth in his game. Pache is extremely talented defensively but hits for light power and isn’t really fantasy relevant. Shea Langeliers is a fantastic catcher prospect who could easily become the team’s primary backstop if Sean Murphy gets shipped out of town.
Houston Astros: Niko Goodrum (SS), Lewis Brinson (OF)
Niko Goodrum’s 526 ADP will rise with the Astros signing, and he now enters the conversation of late-round speed options in 15-team formats. He’s been a huge batting average drain of late (.208 in his last 500-ish PA) but could swipe 20+ bags with 350 or more plate appearances. Though the Astros don’t offer their players the green light as much as other teams in the league. His playing time would come out of the team not re-signing Carlos Correa and if prospect Jeremy Peña is slow to develop. Lewis Brinson is in on a minor league deal but would have to really shine these next couple of weeks to crack the Opening Day roster. The outfielder is rather crowded, even with Jake Meyers not healthy.
High-Level (AL)
- Upgrade: Gio Urshela, Sonny Gray, Mitch Garver, possibly Shea Langeliers
- Neutral: Jesse Winker
- Downgrade: Eugenio Suárez, Jonah Heim, Kyle Lewis
