Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (4/20)

By now, fantasy baseball managers are undoubtedly starting to run out of patience with poor performers. Is it reasonable to drop underachievers at this time? Yes, but as with most fantasy baseball decisions, drop decisions are very contextual. Are the player’s underlying metrics poor or is he simply experiencing bad luck? Is his role and playing time intact or have they been impaired in some way? Are there comparable – or better – replacements available in FAAB? Managers will not get every hold/drop decision right – mistakes will be made – but if contemplating dropping a player that you liked and drafted, take the time to look under the hood and make sure that the drop makes sense.

Sometimes, players start the season cold and then heat up. Other times, they start cold and stay cold. Last season, a young infielder broke camp with his team following a mid-2023 promotion. As of April 20, he was one of the coldest hitters in the league (0 HR, 4 R, 6 RBI, 4 SB, .174 AVG, 31.6% K%). Other than a handful of stolen bases, there was little redeeming about his early performance. By the end of the season, however, Zach Neto was a major fantasy performer (23 HR, 70 R, 77 RBI, 30 SB, .249 AVG) and highly profitable for his managers. A premature drop of Neto would have been very painful the way he turned things around – something that not all struggling players will be able to accomplish. Case in point, a free agent catcher coming off a strong 2023 season (19 HR, 45 R, 50 RBI, .270 AVG) was struggling early last season. As of April 20, he had done virtually nothing for his new team (1 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI, .170 AVG). While he popped some home runs, Mitch Garver’s batting average stayed in the toilet (15 HR, 37 R, 51 RBI, .172 AVG), hurting any manager that stuck with him for the long haul.

The strong recommendation here is to evaluate a potential drop’s underlying fundamentals and try to figure out why he is underperforming expectations. Surface stats, by themselves, can be highly misleading as to a player’s true performance. On this date last year, three starting pitchers had similar, lousy ERAs:

At first blush, it may appear that Pitchers B and C are performing comparably and better than Pitcher A. By diving just a little deeper, however, some differentiating features become readily apparent:

By looking beyond ERA, Pitcher C (Cal Quantrill) no longer appears quite on the same level as Pitcher A (George Kirby) or Pitcher B (Garrett Crochet). Dropping either Kirby (14 W, 179 K, 3.53 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) or Crochet (6 W, 209 K, 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) last year based on early-season ERAs would have disastrous for managers. Thus, while it is perfectly acceptable to start dropping underperformers, make sure the rationale for doing so is sound and is not overinfluenced by poor surface stats over what still is a fairly small sample size. For instance, as of this morning, the starter with the worst ERA among all qualified pitchers (i.e., who have pitched at least one inning per team game played) is Aaron Nola (6.65). Third on the list is Chris Sale (6.17). Sixth and seventh are Tanner Bibee (5.85) and Zac Gallen (5.60), respectively. For managers rostering these players, their performance almost certainly will improve to at least some extent.

Some of the players that should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop