Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (3/31)

This is the inaugural article on drops and disasters. Because this is the first big FAAB weekend, there will be a lot of attention on potential pickups and bids, and rightfully so. For every FAAB string, however, there also must be a drop, and this is where fantasy managers need to be careful. In my introductory article, I discussed some of the factors that managers should consider in identifying potential drops. Now, it’s time to get down to business.

Despite there only being a half week of games played thus far, I anticipate a busy FAAB weekend. By all means, fantasy managers should be prepared to drop Week 1 streamers in favor of potentially longer-term acquisitions. The one caution I would offer is to beware of overreacting to very small samples. For instance, if you liked a player enough to draft him sometime prior to this past Thursday’s Opening Day, think carefully about whether you are ready to give up on that player after just a few games. It’s one thing if the player is hurt or his role has changed, but do not place too much into one or more disappointing performances so early into the season.

Players who should at least be considered as potential drops are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in the 15-team and 12-team formats.  The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Most of my recommended hitter drops are relatively easy calls this week. Two players who were trendy reserve round picks recently – Rockies outfielder Sean Bouchard and Pirates infielder Liover Peguero – struggled in spring training and failed to make their teams’ Opening Day rosters. Diamondbacks prospect, shortstop Jordan Lawlar, not only failed to make the team, but he then injured his thumb in a minor league spring training game and had to undergo surgery, ensuring that he will not be an early-season call-up. Some marginal players who suffered recent injuries necessitating IL trips – Dylan Carlson, Garrett Mitchell, Nick Senzel and DJ LeMahieu – are not worth stashing in Main Events or Online Championship leagues. Finally, I was surprised to see Noelvi Marte rostered on some teams – he’s facing an 80-game suspension and, as promising as his future may be, I would not stash an unproven player for that long, especially when he’s not even guaranteed a full-time role when he returns. I really liked Matt McLain coming into the season, but he underwent major shoulder surgery, and if he makes it back this season, it will be a long time from now – way too long to stash.

There are four hitters who are tougher calls. Luke Raley and Colton Cowser have intriguing skills but uncertain roles. Raley combines some power and speed but scuffled during the spring and did not get the Opening Day start, yielding left field to Dominic Canzone. I expected Raley to have a strong-side platoon role, but he surprisingly sat against righty Brayan Bello, and then started the next two games. Raley has plenty of time to carve out a larger role for Seattle, but I would not pass up potential upgrades for a marginal fantasy asset with something less than a strong-side platoon role. Cowser does have an appealing upside, but he currently lacks a regular role, making him very difficult to start. Barring an injury, I do not see his role expanding soon but understand his potential appeal as a stash.

Royce Lewis and TJ Friedl were relatively high draft picks (especially Lewis) and now will miss a material amount of time. Lewis suffered a serious quad injury and has been shut down for at least a month. A two-month absence seems like a reasonable expectation. Friedl fractured his wrist and will miss at least a month, and probably something closer to 6-8 weeks. While Friedl is a good player, that’s a long time to hold an injured player, and even when he’s back, it is uncertain whether his performance will be impacted. I think he’s a more likely drop than Lewis. For me, Lewis is the toughest call of the week. I am skeptical we see him back before early-June, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to play for the remaining four months without suffering yet another injury, but when healthy he can be a real difference-maker. Teams that otherwise are “stash free” might be inclined to hold Lewis, and that call is more justifiable in the 15-team context.

Potential Pitcher Drops

There are some interesting pitcher drop decisions this week. Let’s get some of the easier ones out of the way first. Okay, Daniel Hudson owners, you got your win; now it’s time to say goodbye. It’s also time for fantasy managers to assess their closer specs. The season is very young, but it looks like Abner Uribe drafters guessed right; the folks who drafted Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill now have to decide whether to give it another week or move on. Through Saturday night, early signs point to Uribe as the Brewers closer. Speaking of which, Devin Williams has two stress fractures in his back and is expected to miss three months, although a longer absence would not be surprising. As great as Williams is when healthy, I’m not sure I’d sign onto a three-month stash that could last even longer. I also would not hold onto the Rockies’ set-up man; the team announced recently that Justin Lawrence is opening the season as the closer, thereby eradicating Tyler Kinley’s fantasy appeal.

Some of the toughest drop calls are injured pitchers. Good starting pitching is a hugely valuable commodity, but the seven bench spots in NFBC leagues also are precious. While Justin Steele is likely to be out at least one month due to a hamstring strain, I think he’s good enough to be held in all formats. Same with Eduardo Rodriguez, who is a cut below Steele, but is trending toward an April return from his lat injury. Holding or cutting Kodai Senga and Kyle Bradish are tougher calls; things seem to be trending well for both players, but they likely will miss significant time before they are fully built back up again, and injuries to elbows and shoulders are scarier in terms of potential impacts on recovery duration and future performance.

Finally, I have included in the table a few pitchers – A.J. Puk and JP Sears – who had particularly bad outings. As you can see, I am reluctant to drop pitchers based on a single outing. Sure, if there are options available in FAAB that fantasy managers perceive as clear upgrades, I can understand considering such a swap. Before doing so, however, managers should make sure the FAAB target truly is an upgrade over the potential drop separate and apart from this season’s small sample performance. There’s not a single pitcher in MLB who hasn’t had bad outings, and overweighting small samples has been the cause of many regrettable drops.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am going to limit myself to pitchers who as of now are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. In the interests of accountability, I will be tracking the results of the pitchers identified in this section and seeing just how poorly (or not) they perform.