Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics-heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced.
Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. .211
The Yankees are actually not in first place in ISO vs. LHP anymore, as the Rangers have now taken the top spot away by an entire point — .212 to the Yankees’ above-mentioned .211. Still, this is a ridiculously good spot — the Yankees would be poised for success against any southpaw, but Mike Minor is not just any southpaw, he is a soft-tossing, 12% barrel rate allowing southpaw.
All of the usual suspects are going to be in play here, and they will by no means be sneaky, as this is about as obvious as such spots get, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks and Jose Trevino as standout options, and I wouldn’t shy away from Anthony Rizzo either. I realize I named eight Yankees and there are only nine total lineup spots and you can only stack five in a single lineup, but no matter what else you do, make sure you get some Yankees exposure, the more creative you can get with your stacks the better.
2. 19.6
From the same people who brought you Reid Detmers as under 1% last week, we hereby present Spenser Watkins’ average DK score over his last three starts since going to the minors for a month. To be clear — this is not exactly the same situation as Detmers — in Detmers’ case, he threw a no-no, was bad for a while, got optioned to AAA, it pissed him off, he struck out 14 dudes and came back guns blazing in a cake matchup against the Orioles.
Watkins went to AAA for a whole month and wasn’t very good there, but he must have learned some crazy voodoo run prevention magic as he has allowed only two runs in the 17.2 innings he’s thrown since coming back up to Baltimore, and he has only walked three hitters over that same period. This is in stark contrast to the beginning of his season, where he managed to avoid walking more than a single hitter only once in 8 starts. He also hasn’t allowed a home run since he’s been back, which is no small feat against the powerful lineups of the White Sox, Twins and Rangers. The ceiling is closer to 22-25 DK points, but at this price, if you absolutely love the bats it gets you, he could be worthwhile.
3. 36%
It is absolutely bonkers that Shane McClanahan is able to keep up this high a K% this far into the season, but that is precisely what is happening. Truth be told I could make all seven of these stats unbelievable things Shane McClanahan has done this season and we could just have a good old “Ode to Shane McClanahan” instead of the regular Diamond Data, and you would be thoroughly entertained, but not especially prepared for the DFS slate.
While the Red Sox offense isn’t usually one we want to attack, they’ve been less potent than usual of late and are dealing with a number of injuries. Tuesday night’s iteration of the Red Sox lineup featured all 3 of Bobby Dalbec, Franchy Cordero and Jackie Bradley Jr. If we see something similar with a lingering J.D. Martinez injury and possibly a chance for Rafael Devers to get a day off against a tough LHP, we could see an even more likely ceiling performance from McClanahan.
4. .120, 6.9%
These are the ISO and BB%, respectively, for the A’s, who — despite their 14-run outburst against primarily the Rangers bullpen Tuesday night — rank second worst and third worst in the aforementioned categories, making Jon Gray an enticing SP option Wednesday. These weaknesses play right into Gray’s strengths, as he can attack the zone and induce weak contact without fear of being punished with the long ball with only a few difficult matchups to work around.
5. .192
This is Adam Wainwright’s BAA in the specific split of pitching at home and facing LHBs. He has had the most plate appearances in this split of any of the four available and has had the most success when pitching at home but ceding the platoon advantage to the hitter. With the Dodgers capable of rolling out as many as five LHBs (Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Cody Bellinger and Jake Lamb are the most likely), this should lead to plenty of opportunities for success for Wainwright.
While I am usually not inclined to buy into home/road splits too much, he has 50-plus innings in each split this season, and the split becomes more and more pronounced with each start.
6. 35.8%, .87
These are Shohei Ohtani’s K% and WHIP, respectively, when pitching at home. Sure, he gets an awful matchup against the Astros, but he’s had plenty of success against them this season, putting up 9 K’s against them on Opening Night and then 12 only a couple weeks later. He’ll also get a bit of a break as Yordan Alvarez will miss this one with an injury, removing one of the most dangerous bats in all of baseball from the lineup and getting strikeout fodder as a replacement.
Ohtani has struck out at least 10 per start and avoided allowing a single run over his last three starts, so he comes into this one in extremely good form (even by his standards) and is only the eighth-most expensive pitcher on DK. This is a terrific opportunity to deploy Ohtani where others might shy away from him due to matchup.
7. 25.5%
This is the Orioles’ K% against LHP, the split they will be in against Cubs SP Justin Steele. This is also the split they were in against Reid Detmers when he put a virtually unrostered (unless you were a Diamond Data reader!) gem last Friday. Only the Pirates and Marlins strike out more against LHPs, and while you likely don’t think of Steele as being worthy of a $9,200 DK price tag, he has thrown 100-plus pitches and put up at least 8 K’s in two of his last three outings. Because of the price tag, he will likely receive even less attention than Detmers did, as there are much more consistent arms to pay up for. But this is a situation where we could find ourselves in the Discord an hour after lock, wondering no one told us it was “Cy Justin Steele Day” and I am here to say I have now told you.
