NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue. There have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at today’s slate.
1. 19
As in COVID-19, or the reason that three Cardinals, including and most notably a red-hot Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, will be missing from the Cardinals lineup due to lack of vaccination prohibiting their travel to Canada. While I’m certain there is no shortage of opinions about that, the primary takeaway here is that José Berríos will get to face an extremely watered down version of the Cardinals lineup, and he is available at a discount at only $7,900.
Another interesting takeaway is that this dramatically decreases the skill of the Cardinals’ infield defense, and that is particularly meaningful with Andre Pallante and his 63.7% ground-ball rate on the mound against a Blue Jays team that is 11th in ground-ball rate.
2. 53
This is the number of pitches Frankie Montas threw in his last start against the Tigers. That start was his first start after missing nearly three weeks with an injury, and he was understandably being eased back into things. This start, well, the stakes are quite a bit higher. The A’s aren’t playing for anything of course, although they did beat the Astros last night after pouncing on Jake Odorizzi for six runs, but this is Frankie Montas’ showcase day.
While it’s possible he could have one more start after this one and before the trade deadline if he doesn’t show out in this one, there is no one more motivated than Montas to have a stellar outing against his divisional foe, as it would cement his ticket out of Oakland and prove that his injury issues are behind him. We will want to make sure he is fully healthy and expected to see a full workload of pitches, and don’t worry, I am already harassing beat writers for your benefit. Be sure to pop into the MLB Discord to get the latest updates on Montas’ workload as they become available.
3. 35.7%
It is absolutely bonkers that Shane McClanahan is able to keep up this high of a K% this far into the season, but that is precisely what is happening. Truth be told, I could make all seven of these stats unbelievable things that McClanahan has done this season and we could just have a good old “Ode to Shane McClanahan” instead of the regular diamond data. You would be thoroughly entertained, but not especially prepared for the DFS slate.
The Orioles, for their part, are third in all of baseball in K% against LHP, and while they are in the middle of a hot streak and also do show some pop against southpaws from time to time with a .141 ISO in that split, this is a more attackable situation than most.
4. 13%, 14.3%
This is Brewers’ rookie callup Ethan Small’s BB% in AAA this season and barrel rate in his lone MLB start. You definitely don’t want to see numbers like this from a guy you are potentially considering rostering in DFS, and while each are tiny samples of course, Small has a long history, despite his renown as a prospect, of having a bloated BB%. His matchup is not an easy one, and I’m quite a bit more inclined to invest in Twins stacks to get leverage on those looking for savings from their SP2 than I am to roster Small himself.
5. 34.8%
This is how much Mike Clevinger is throwing his four-seamer this season, which is down a great deal from his peak usage early in his career of 58.6%. He is instead opting to use more sinkers and cutters, which should serve him plenty well against inexperienced, and in some cases, less talented hitters like the ones the Tigers bring to the table. Yes, the Tigers did just score 12 runs yesterday, and that might make some folks uneasy, but Sean Manaea and Clevinger could not be more different in pitching styles, and this matchup should very much favor Clevinger. He’s also available at an affordable DK price and can be easily paired with a top arm like McClanahan.
6. 14%, 12.9%
Those are Diamondbacks starter Tyler Gilbert’s K% and Barrel% respectively. Yes I know the Giants are in an awful slump, which puts us in movable force versus stoppable object territory. The Giants are on the ropes with their season and in dire need of an offensive outburst to get them through some subpar efforts from both their starters and bullpen of late. This is more of a gut feel than anything else, but I think we see an inspired performance both from Carlos Rodón on the mound and from the Giants’ collection of lefty mashers that will get to feast on the “pitching to hard contact” archetype that Gilbert personifies. Austin Slater is probably at the top of the list in terms of guys to roster, as he has been extremely hot and hasn’t platooned as much of late, but Darin Ruf, Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores and even David Villar can be considered viable options here against a very hittable lefty.
7. 37.9%
This is Spencer Strider’s K% so far this season, despite the poor performances in a few of his last starts. He is by no means a safe option, and I’m not certain he will be a particularly popular one on such a large slate with McClanahan and Rodon in enticing matchups at only a slightly higher price point, but the man still has nearly a 40% K rate. Make no mistake about it, this is a high variance play, but the Phillies offense isn’t quite the same level of threatening without Bryce Harper in it, so there is plenty of alpha for Strider to capture even at this $8,700 price. For what it’s worth, I would much rather play Strider at his price than his counterpart Aaron Nola at $10K.
