Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Tuesday’s DFS slate.
1. The Detroit Tigers have scored 2.59 runs per game on the road
Carlos Rodón is one of the best pitchers in the league. He has a 2.70 ERA on the season and has allowed just one earned run combined in his last three starts, spanning 21 innings. He also had 26 strikeouts to boot. Rodón isn’t the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings Tuesday, but at $10,400 he’s expensive and should be the obvious chalk SP1. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball this season — even the Oakland Athletics (another offense that we like to pick on) have outscored the Tigers by 24 runs. The Tigers are even worse on the road as they’ve scored 3.33 runs per game at home compared to just 2.59 runs per game on the road. The Tigers’ projected lineup has eight hitters with at least a 20% K% against left-handed pitching this season and Rodón has a 33% K% this year. He’s the clear top pitcher on the slate for me, you, your mom and everyone else.
2. Zack Wheeler struck out 10 Braves the last time he faced them
Zack Wheeler’s last start was a bit of a clunker as he failed to complete five innings against the Rangers on the road. Still, he has a 2.77 ERA on the season, and before his last start he had completed at least six innings in six straight starts. Believe it or not, Wheeler is actually more expensive than Carlos Rodón on DraftKings at $10,800. Given that Atlanta has a lot more power in their lineup than Detroit with six hitters with ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this year in Travis d’Arnaud, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, William Contreras and Michael Harris, expect Rodon to carry over twice the amount of rostership on this slate.
3. Robbie Ray has a 26% K% this season
Robbie Ray’s 4.51 xFIP just isn’t on the level of the other aces of the night, Rodón and Wheeler. If Ray is going to compete with those guys, he’ll have to take advantage of his strikeout upside against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles broke out for nine runs against rookie George Kirby Monday, but there are a lot of strikeouts in this lineup against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has seven hitters in their projected lineup with a K% above 20% against left-handed pitching this year. In his last three starts, Ray has allowed just two earned runs and struck out 20 batters in 20 innings combined. At $9,500 on DraftKings, he’s a top-three starter on the slate.
4. Patrick Corbin has four quality starts in 15 starts this year
Patrick Corbin faced the Pirates back in April and went 5.1 innings while allowing two earned runs, three hits and two walks and striking out four. It wasn’t one of his quality starts, but it was one of his better outings this season. We’re talking about a pitcher with a 6.60 ERA in 73.2 innings this year. His xFIP isn’t as bad at 4.97, but it’s not like it’s very good either. Corbin is very cheap tonight at $5,300 on DraftKings so he’s your punt option if you need it, but I ultimately think it’s a pretty thin play.
5. Kyle Freeland has a 5.39 xFIP
It’s a big slate, but if there is a chalk stack it’s going to be the Dodgers at Coors Field. I don’t think the Dodgers are a must-play on this slate, but they’re certainly worth looking at as they have an implied team run total on this slate that’s approaching seven runs. Freeland has had two quality starts in his last three home starts and completed at least six innings in each of his last three starts at Coors. Of course, four home starts ago he allowed eight runs to the Royals without completing five innings. My favorite Dodgers bats tonight against the lefty Freeland are Max Muncy ($4,900), Chris Taylor ($4,700) and Trayce Thompson ($2,000).
6. Johnny Cueto has allowed five home runs in his last five starts
Johnny Cueto has a 3.19 ERA in seven starts, but his xFIP is 4.61. He’s a veteran who knows how to pitch and he can get by with his experience and guile against some lineups, but I don’t think the Angels are one of those lineups. They have a ton of power as Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh each have ISOs above .230 against right-handed pitching this year. Trout and Ohtani are both pretty expensive on this slate, but there are two minimum-priced options available to use in an Angels stack in Brandon Marsh and Andrew Velazquez.
7. Keegan Thompson has a 4.68 xFIP this season
Keegan Thompson’s ERA is 3.10, but he’s been lucky. Thompson has an 80% left on base percentage and he’s allowed a .264 BABIP. His 4.68 xFIP is more in line with the type of pitcher he is given his 22% K%, 8% BB%, and 44% ground ball percentage. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but he’s also allowed over 1.0 HR/9 and a .198 ISO to right-handed hitters this year. That’s not a good development for Thompson given he’s got a home matchup with the Cincinnati Reds and the wind is blowing out at over 10 mph at Wrigley Field. Brandon Drury has been the Reds best power hitter this season and has a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching this year. Since the beginning of last season, Jonathan India has a .197 ISO against right-handed pitching and Joey Votto has a .309 ISO against right-handed pitching. Votto has crushed against the Cubs recently as one of his five home runs this year, and nine of his 36 home runs last year were against Chicago.
