Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baseball lends itself to numerical intrigue — there have long been bountiful statistics surrounding the game, and in today’s analytics heavy version of the game, there are more numbers than ever before. Knowing what numbers are meaningful and from which actionable information can be ascertained can make all the difference. The margins have never been thinner, and the impact of every discernible edge has never been more pronounced. Here are some of the numbers that jump out at me when taking a look at Friday’s DFS slate.
1. 6.14
This is Michael Lorenzen’s road ERA — he is roughly league average at home, but an unmitigated disaster thus far on the road. We explored a similar pattern with Dylan Bundy this week and the Guardians were able to jump on him early, so we can see how Lorenzen fares against one of the toughest lineups in all of MLB in the Astros.
To make matters worse for Lorenzen, this is a Friday night Apple TV “potential juiced ball” game, and while Jeff Lowe thinks it is unlikely that we would see juiced balls in Houston after all their shenanigans, Alex Blickle seems to think we will see fireworks. I’m siding with Blickle’s thoughts here, and we should expect the holiday weekend to start off with fireworks in Houston.
2. 40.4%
This is the Yankees’ FB%, and in a matchup against Aaron Civale, a very line drive- and fly ball-heavy pitcher, expect them to get a lot of balls in the air. This will spell disaster against a lineup with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Jose Trevino. There are also some spendy pitchers that are going to be very enticing to roster, so getting exposure to the Yankees at their astronomical prices may be a challenge, but even if you have to stack the bottom of the order (Trevino, Aaron Hicks, Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) you will want to get some pieces here. While you probably can’t fit both the best Astros and the best Yankees in your lineups, you should be able to mix and match with some of the values offered between the two teams.
3. 15.8%, 10.5%, 9.3%
These are James Kaprielian’s K%, BB% and barrel rate, respectively. It doesn’t paint a pretty picture of what is to come if he runs into an offense that is on a roll, and he happens to run into exactly that with the Mariners here. The Seattle offense has not been great this season, and moreover the lineup is missing arguably its best hitter in Ty France, but red-hot rookie sensation Julio Rodríguez and girthy backstop Cal Raleigh have been a force to be reckoned with, along with a resurgent Jesse Winker (.892 OPS and .191 ISO in June) should be able to tee off on Kaprielian, and likely with some traffic on the bases.
With a Coors game on the slate and several other potent offenses taking aim at underwhelming pitchers, the Mariners are in a very good spot for an under-the-radar eruption as a late-night hammer.
4. 41.2%
This is the hard contact rate given up so far by a probably not-quite-right Lance Lynn, and he’ll lose the platoon matchup to virtually all of the Giants hitters due to San Francisco’s proclivity to structure the lineup in the worst possible matchup for the opposing starter. The Giants haven’t been hitting particularly well of late, but a matchup with an historically splitsy and not in great form Lynn could get all of Joc Pederson, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Brandon Crawford if he’s healthy going once again.
While Wade and to a lesser extent Pederson will have some pinch hit risk, this is a spot in which the Giants should open up a considerable lead early, allowing multiple PAs before a reliever comes in, and they would also be less likely to pinch hit with the game in hand, as the White Sox will be unlikely to use their front line relievers and the platoon advantages of bringing in the Slater/Ruf/Flores types will matter less.
I think I’ve just talked myself into a 5-3 with Mariners and Giants, which is a bonkers thing to do on this slate, but just might work.
5. 103.6
This is the average number of pitches for Corbin Burnes in his June starts. He goes deep into games, throws a ton of pitches and gets the Pirates here. While the Pirates have been worse this season than they are currently, they are still one of baseball’s worst teams, and there are plenty of strikeouts in the lineup for Burnes to find. He should be locked in for what will likely be a pitcher’s duel with Pirates rookie Roansy Contreras in a game total of a projected 7.5 with juice on the under, a low-scoring run environment to be sure.
With this much volume and this much potential for efficiency against a bad lineup, it would be a shock if Burnes didn’t come away with at least 7 innings and 8-plus K’s.
6. 40.2%, 2.4%
You know who is bad? Antonio Senzatela is bad. These are his hard contact and BB% numbers against RHBs in particular, the split in which he is supposed to have the advantage. You might be wondering why a low BB% is bad, and in most cases it is not, but in Senzatela’s case it is, because he is getting absolutely destroyed on balls in play, meaning he is pitching to contact but the contact is landing for hits 40% of the time, and it is hard to pitch like that. In other words, he’s not fooling anyone. So, while a Diamondbacks stack will hardly be unique due to the Coors field venue, leaving Christian Walker and Carson Kelly in your stacks instead of skipping over them in favor of LHBs like Daulton Varsho, Josh Rojas, Alek Thomas and David Peralta can be a way to differentiate. Senzatela is bad against everyone, thus you should be playing everyone against him if you go the chalky Coors route.
7. 1.17
This is Marco Gonzales’ WHIP against RHB, which stands in stark contrast to his bloated and ugly 2.08 WHIP against LHB so far this season. Given that the A’s have a tendency to platoon and are run poorly enough that they will likely run out a bunch of RHBs against Gonzales given the obvious reverse split that he has displayed this season, we might actually see a useful fantasy game from him, especially in a game where he should get plenty of run support and has a good chance at a W as a -190 favorite.
He has been trending right around 15 DK points per start for the last month, and he is unlikely to get blown up by the A’s, so if he can somehow push that to 20 DK points at a very fair DK price of $7,400,Gonzales could be a decent source of value and allow you to fit in some higher-priced bats on a night where there are two bona fide aces going in fantastic matchups that will be heavily rostered.
