Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Jon Gray has a 3.73 SIERA and a 27.7% K rate since the Spider Tack crackdown
These numbers suggest Jon Gray belongs in the Lucas Giolito–Frankie Montas price tier ($9,600-$8,300). Instead, we get to roster Gray at $6,900 in the best matchup possible. The Tigers have a baseline wRC+ of 59.1 to go along with baseline K and BB rates of 26% and 5%, respectively. I will lock Gray into any and every lineup I make. Despite his cheap price, he’s first in projected DK points, projected Ks and each threshold probability in the Strikeout Model.
2. Ross Stripling has a .195 ISO allowed and gets hit especially hard by good teams
Hat tip to Jeff Lowe here, who called each of Stripling’s last two strong starts. In Jeff’s words, Stripling is “serviceable against bad teams”. In other words, he’s extremely sensitive to the quality of the opponent. Here are some interesting splits:
In starts of at least 4 innings, against teams in the bottom half of wRC+:
15 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 0 ER
In starts of at least 4 innings, against teams in the top half of wRC+:
17 IP, 21 H, 2 BB, 15 K, 10 ER
The Yankees have the top projected ISO on the slate at .322 and Stripling is backed by an attackable bullpen.
3. The wind is blowing out to right at 16 mph in Boston
Historically, this wind has led to a 20% (or more) increase in home runs, albeit in a relatively small sample. This is especially intriguing for the Cardinals, as they project for a .198 ISO against Michael Wacha even before the wind boost.
Wacha’s CSW is just 22.7% over the last 30 days, as if we needed another reason to track him here.
4. Home runs are down 19% on Fridays, 30.33% on all other days
As I’ve said before, one possible explanation for this difference is that MLB is sending juiced balls to the Apple TV games. Friday, those games are:
- CWS @ HOU
- CLE @ LAD
Houston projects for a .203 ISO against Lucas Giolito, and the Dodgers project for a .245 ISO against Zach Plesac, so both are in favorable spots even if the ball is not juiced. If it is, they could erupt.
5. Tarik Skubal has a 31.7% CSW over the last 30 days, 3.4 percentage points above his baseline
From a pure projection standpoint, four pitchers have my interest for SP2 (I consider Gray my SP1):
Of those four, Skubal is the only one with a positive CSW trend (and it’s excellent). I won’t lock in Skubal, but he’s my preference to pair alongside Gray.
6. In the last 14 days, Philadelphia is third in HRs, wOBA and wRC+
Friday, they face Paolo Espino and the terrible Washington bullpen in some serious DC heat and humidity. Espino throws a slider or curveball about a quarter of the time each, so we want to focus on Phillies who hit both well. This is a dream matchup for the top of the order — Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper.
7. Bailey Falter has a 4.98 SIERA, 13.4% K rate and a 26.4% CSW
Simply put, it’s been an immense struggle for Bailey Falter. In fact, his CSW is down to 24.4% over the last 30 days. Washington has a .188 projected ISO against him, which I’m inclined to say is likely an underestimate given the heat and humidity in DC and Falter’s inability to figure things out at the moment.
A Philadelphia/Washington game stack sure is enticing.
