NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Carlos Rodón threw 89 pitches, striking out 12 in his opening start
The big lefty was stretched more than almost any other pitcher in his opening start, leading to the only triple-digit projected pitch cap of the day. Consequently, Carlos Rodón is first in projected DK points, first in projected Ks, and first at every threshold probability in the Strikeout Model.
2. Daulton Jefferies throws a sinker around 50% of the time, throwing more cutters than fastballs, as well
If you’re a common reader of this piece, you already know the deal — sinkerballers provide an opportunity to find hitters who project well above their baseline if they hit sinkers better than the more traditional four- or two-seam fastball. Toronto has several hitters who match up extremely well with Daulton Jefferies’ pitch mix, including the heavy sinker dosage:
- Bo Bichette (core play)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Cavan Biggio (will be a core play for me if he’s in the lineup)
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Friday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
3. In 12 spring training innings and 5 AAA innings, MacKenzie Gore has 23 strikeouts to just 3 walks
As our own Vlad Sedler pointed out, MacKenzie Gore’s minor league performance last year was puzzling for such a highly touted prospect, but he appears to have put those struggles behind him. Two things can be true — he is underpriced, but the matchup with Atlanta makes him fragile chalk.
4. Freddy Peralta’s fastball gained 19.7 runs in 2021, the second-best fastball behind Carlos Rodón’s
This is unfortunate for the Cardinals, as the majority of their lineup would prefer a deviation off traditional fastballs to sinkers or cutters. Freddy Peralta is the clear No. 2 on the slate according to the Strikeout Model, so if you can fit good bats alongside the two stud pitchers, I love that route.
5. In 2021, Tony Gonsolin threw a splitter more than 20% of the time, gaining over two runs per 100 pitches
Cincinnati against splitters looks like so:
Tony Gonsolin’s 14.4 projected DK points are fourth on the slate, so he’s a viable, more contrarian arm if you want to pair chalky stacks together.
6. Germán Márquez is third on the slate in the Strikeout Model’s ceiling probabilities
There’s a lot to like about Germán Márquez despite pitching in Coors Field. He’s more or less a three-pitch pitcher, throwing fastballs, sliders and curves, all above average. Chicago struggles mightily against both breaking balls, and Marquez has proven he can pitch well in Coors.
In the past two seasons, Marquez has a 3.57 xFIP and .283 wOBA allowed at home vs a 3.81 xFIP and .308 wOBA allowed on the road.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
7. The highest projected ISO on the slate vs. the starter belongs to… the Oakland A’s?
Ross Stripling’s .242 ISO allowed since the start of the 2020 season is borderline atrocious. While he likely won’t last long, the A’s are cheap across the board and provide real contrarian upside on this slate. Seth Brown would be the foundational piece.
