UFC Vegas 51 DFS Picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC on UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs Muhhamad 2. Below you’ll find a breakdown of my highest exposures, giving context to why they project so well. Look for final cheat sheet exposures as the event draws nearer.

Vicente Luque

The main event favorite, not much needs to be said. Luque is a finisher who frequently flashes 100-point upside or higher.

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

The sentiment around the industry seems to really be down on this guy. Sure, he hasn’t been tested, but he is a Combat Sambo World Champion who seems to be very committed to a grappling-heavy gameplan. While there are still a lot of questions surrounding Omargadzhiev, the grappling upside is clearly there.

Martin Buday

This guy doesn’t seem to be very good, but man is he big. He’s facing a tremendously undersized opponent in Chris Barnett whom he has the ability to press against the cage and land valuable control time. Buday has shown a willingness to attempt takedowns, and if that happens, he will have a massive advantage here and a great look at an early finish.

Pat Sabatini

Renzo Gracie Philly guys are on a tear right now, and Sabatini is no different. The striking is a work in progress, but he’s got excellent grappling and cage wrestling that comes with a great floor/ceiling combo on DK.

Drakkar Klose

Typically a decision machine, Klose should have a huge wrestling advantage, but he is hard to trust, which drops him below the other top-end spends for me. He’s been off for almost two years with a severe neck injury, a definite red flag.

Belal Muhammad

Muhammad has been very committed to a wrestling-heavy approach lately and looks better and better each time out. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he isn’t optimal in a win at his price.

Ange Loosa

Loosa is making a short-notice debut after fighting just two weeks ago. He gets a pretty overrated (in my opinion) opponent in Mounir Lazzez and should have a pretty sizable grappling advantage. Loosa doesn’t have tremendous finishing ability, but he is very durable and comes in at just $7,400 on DK.

Jesse Ronson

Ronson is getting up there in age and coming off a two-year steroid suspension, but he is underpriced here as the price has flipped from where it opened. Ronson has a very fluid and well-rounded game that keeps him competitive in most matchups.

William Knight

Affectionately known as Thicc Willy. This guy is enormous at heavyweight. He’s KO or bust, but his power is scary, and Devin Clark doesn’t have the most reliable chin. I want some exposure here for his KO1 upside.

I’ll be posting my final exposures once finalized and will be around in Discord to answer questions as well. Good luck on fight night.