One of the classic matchups in NFL history, these two teams first met in 1932. The Lions have gotten the better of Washington recently, winning six of the last seven regular season meetings. However, the Commanders are 3-0 against the Lions all-time in postseason. Washington is seeking their first NFC Championship game since 1991, which was also the year of their last Super Bowl title. Their opponent that year? Detroit. Washington won 41-10.
The Commanders have a flair for the dramatic this season with a jaw-dropping six wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation or in overtime this season. That’s two more than any other team in a season since 2000, including the playoffs. They have nine wins by six fewer points or fewer this season, which is tied for the second-most in NFL history including the playoffs. Washington has won five straight games all on the final play from scrimmage. They’re also just the second team in NFL history to win 13-plus games after a 13-plus loss season including playoffs. The only other team to do so was the 1998-99 Colts, which was the beginning of the Peyton Manning era in Indy.
The magical season continues for Jayden Daniels. This weekend, he can become the sixth rookie quarterback to make a Conference Championship game. The other five are Brock Purdy, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and Shaun King. No rookie quarterback has made the Super Bowl. But Daniels is special. He had three games this season where his team had zero punts and zero turnovers. That’s one more than the combined careers of Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes.
LANDOVER, MD – NOVEMBER 17: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up field during a NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Field, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)
Daniels has been one of the most prolific rookie signal callers in league history. Including the playoffs, he has the fifth-most total touchdowns (33) and second-most total yards (4,763) by rookie quarterback. Only Andrew Luck had more total yards (4,952) in his rookie season including the playoffs. It certainly helps when you have Terry McLaurin on the field. The veteran wideout has been outstanding down the stretch with eight receiving touchdowns since Week 12, including one against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round. Prior to 2024, McLaurin never had eight receiving scores in a season. Including the playoffs this year, he has 14.
Dan Campbell and the Lions earned the first No. 1 seed in team history. Unfortunately, history doesn’t bode especially well for new No. 1 seeds. The last new No. 1 was the Ravens in 2019. That team lost in the Divisional Round to the Titans. However, we did see the Saints win the Super Bowl as a new No. 1 seed in 2009. Of course, this isn’t new territory for the Lions under Campbell. They made it to the Conference Championship last season. Another trip to that game would mark the first back-to-back Conference Championship game appearances in team history.
The Lions enter this game with a league-high 33.2 points per game and the best points per game differential (+13.1) since the 2019 Ravens. This was the first season with 30-plus points per game in team history. But it hasn’t been easy. Detroit has five of their Week 1 defensive starters on IR. That’s tied for the most by a playoff team since the merger.
Few people gave Jared Goff a chance when he came over from the Rams in the trade for Matthew Stafford, but he’s proved the doubters wrong. Goff’s total of 37 passing touchdowns this season is the second-most in team history. He threw for three-plus scores seven times this season, which tied Stafford’s team record from 2011. Goff is also the third quarterback ever to win 13-plus games in a season for multiple franchises. There are no surprises with the other two: Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
Goff has weapons galore on the Lions’ offense. Detroit became the first team in NFL history with two running backs and two wide receivers with over 1,000 scrimmage yards. Those four players are Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Add to that group TE Sam LaPorta, and you have one of the most formidable skill position corps in the league.
Gibbs was terrific in the regular season, amassing 1,929 scrimmage yards and a franchise-record 20 scrimmage touchdowns. That’s tied for the most scrimmage touchdowns by a first- or second-year player in NFL history. His 6.4 yards per touch was the best since Marshall Faulk in 2000 for players with a minimum of 300 touches. Gibbs is also the first Lions player with 150-plus scrimmage yards in three straight games since Barry Sanders in 1991. Of course, Montgomery missed those three games at the end of the season, but he’ll be back for this contest.
KANSAS CITY, MO – SEPTEMBER 07: Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs after the catch for a 9-yard touchdown in the first quarter of an NFL game between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs on Sep 7, 2023 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
In the passing game, St. Brown scored 12 receiving touchdowns this season. That’s the most by a Lions player since Calvin Johnson in 2013. St. Brown is the first player in team history with 100 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Over his first four seasons, he’s racked up 430 catches. Only Michael Thomas (470) has more over a player’s first four seasons.
This is the largest spread as a favorite in a playoff game in Lions’ franchise history. Detroit was 12-4-1 against the spread in 2024 regular season, which was tied for the best in NFL with the Chargers. Washington was 150-1 to make Super Bowl entering the season. With win in this game, the Commanders would match the 1999 Rams and the 2021 Bengals for the longest preseason odds by a team to reach a Conference Championship game in the past 45 seasons. This game also features a massive 55.5 over/under line. That’s the highest we’ve seen in a game since 2020.
Betting Records This Season
WAS: 11-6-1 against the spread, OVER is 11-7 DET: 12-4-1 against the spread, OVER is 9-8
He didn’t go over this line last week, but the Lions really didn’t need him in that contest. Despite the hefty spread, Washington should keep this one close enough for Goff to have to lean on the passing game. Williams has topped this line in three of his last five games.
Over the last two seasons, Montgomery averages 64.8 rushing yards in games the Lions were favored. That’s across 25 games. That number climbs to 69.6 in the seven games with a spread greater than -7.5. Monty also averages 14.4 rushing attempts in the 25 games as a favorite, putting 10.5 rush attempts at -125 in play on DraftKings.
LA Rams @ Philadelphia
We have to go all the way back to the 2001 NFC Championship game for the last time these two teams met in the postseason. The then-St. Louis Rams won that contest 29-24 and also own a 2-1 edge on Philly overall in the playoffs. Both teams are rolling heading into this contest. They have a combined 23-4 record since bye including playoffs. The Rams are 10-3 and Philly is 13-1 over that span.
For the Rams, the rebuild was short lived. Sean McVay has his squad in the playoffs yet again and is seeking his first NFC Championship appearance since 2021 season when the Rams won Super Bowl LVI. A win here would make LA the third team to make it to the Conference Championship after a 1-4 start. The other two were the 1976 Steelers and 2002 Titans. The Rams were relentless in the Wild Card Round, racking up a record-tying nine sacks in their 27-9 win over the Vikings. That was their largest win margin this season.
INGLEWOOD, CA – SEPTEMBER 12: Matthew Stafford #9 of the Rams during an NFL game between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams on September 12, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Icon Sportswire)
A lot of LA’s recent postseason success has been due to the play of Matthew Stafford. He’s the first player ever with multiple pass touchdowns in his first six playoff games with a franchise. Stafford averages the fourth-most passing yards per game (296.9) in playoff history. Of course, he faces an Eagles pass defense that allowed just 174.2 yards per game this season.
And it isn’t just Stafford. Kyren Williams has racked up 32 touchdowns in the last two seasons. He’s averaging 98.1 scrimmage yards per game and has scored seven touchdowns over his last seven games played. Puka Nacua has also been highly productive over the last two seasons with 90.0 career receiving yards per game. That’s the second most in NFL history including the postseason. Of course, we have seen a decline out of Cooper Kupp this season. Having said that, he’s been very effective in the post season with seven touchdowns and 85.1 receiving yards per game in eight career playoff games.
The Eagles are just one season removed from their last NFC Championship appearance in 2022. They, of course, lost Super Bowl LVII that season. They’re coming off a 22-10 win over the Packers in the Wild Card Round. That’s their fourth game this season allowing 10-or-fewer points. The Eagles are 9-1 at home this season with eight straight wins. Including the postseason, Nick Sirianni has the third-highest win percentage by a head coach in the Super Bowl Era (.689). The only head coaches ahead of him are Vince Lombardi (.750) and John Madden (.739).
In his three career playoff wins, Jalen Hurts averages just 135.3 passing yards per game. That’s the second fewest by any starting quarterback with three postseason wins since 2000 — only Jimmy Garoppolo averages fewer. But Hurts has been very clean with the football, posting five straight playoff starts without an interception. Only Patrick Mahomes has a longer streak since the merger.
Saquon Barkley had a historic season that arguably peaked in Week 12 when he rushed for a franchise-record 255 rush yards in a 37-20 win over the Rams. Barkley now has the fifth-most rush yards in a season in NFL history including playoffs (2,124). He’s also averaging a massive 2.64 yards before contact per attempt this season. That leads all running backs.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 30: Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receiver A.J. Brown (11) and Wide Receiver Devonta Smith (6) enter the field before the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles on October 30, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)
When he doesn’t have his nose in a book, A.J. Brown is typically busy racking up yards. He managed 1,000-plus receiving yards in all three of his seasons with the Eagles. That’s tied for the longest streak in franchise history with Mike Quick. Of course, Brown managed just one catch for 10 yards in last week’s win over the Packers. He hasn’t quite matched his regular season success in the postseason. In four playoff games, Brown has just 14 receptions for 156 yards and one score. Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith has 31 catches for 460 yards and a score in his six playoff games. The Eagles also got Dallas Goedert back last week. Goedert found paydirt in that contest after having scored just two times in the regular season.
Philly was a three-point favorite against the Rams back in Week 12 and went on to win 37-20. Barkley shredded the Rams defense in that contest, and Brown managed 109 yards and a score on six catches. The Rams are 3-0 straight up in their past three games as the underdog with Matthew Stafford. Those wins came against Buffalo, San Francisco and Minnesota. In that span, LA beat a 13-win team (Bills), last season’s Super Bowl runner-up (49ers) and a 14-win team (Vikings). A win here would be another upset over a14-win team.
Betting Records This Season
LAR: 10-8 against the spread, UNDER is 10-8 PHI: 12-6 against the spread, UNDER is 11-7
Weather will likely be a factor in this game, but it shouldn’t have a major impact on the run game. Barkley’s line is 111.5, so why not bump it up to 120 for a little extra payout? Barkley went nuts against the Rams in Week 12 and is set for a huge workload in this one.
Kupp has been nearly nonexistent since the start of December with just 13 receptions over his last six games and only one game with more than 30 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Smith has gone over 50 in each of his last four games with two 100-yard performances over that stretch.
Look for the Rams to lean heavily on Williams given the conditions in this one. The line is very reasonable considering the fact that Williams has been over this number in 13 of his last 15 games.
Baltimore @ Buffalo
Let’s do this. The game of the year features the two teams that combined for the most touchdowns (130) and the fewest giveaways (19) in the regular season in any playoff matchup ever. The two MVP candidate quarterbacks in this contest, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, have the two best regular season records in the Super Bowl Era among starting quarterbacks with zero Super Bowl starts. This will presumably be the sixth playoff quarterback matchup between the top two in MVP voting since the merger.
Of course, Jackson edged Allen for first-team All-Pro in 2024. Separated by just 12 first-place votes, it was the closest All-Pro quarterback vote since 2003. That was the year of last co-NFL MVPs with Peyton Manning and Steve McNair also separated by 12 votes. The last time All-Pro quarterback and MVP quarterback were different came in 1987 when Joe Montana got first-team All-Pro and John Elway won the MVP.
BALTIMORE, MD – SEPTEMBER 29: Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) fights for extra yards during an NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens on September 29, 2024, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire)
These teams met in the regular season back in Week 4. In a very one-sided contest, Baltimore won 35-10 at home. Derrick Henry was a monster in that game, rushing for 199 yards. Teams have won 13 straight playoff matchups after winning the only head-to-head regular-season meeting by 25-plus points. We haven’t seen the regular season loser win in the postseason rematch since the 2009 Wild Card Round when Arizona defeated Green Bay 51-45 in overtime.
Despite major regular season success, Lamar Jackson hasn’t been an elite postseason quarterback. He’s just 3-4 with 11 total touchdowns and nine turnovers in the playoffs. To be fair, he does have seven total touchdowns and just two turnovers in his last three playoff games. But the losses have been rough. In his four postseason losses, the Ravens scored just 42 combined points.
But this year’s Ravens are built differently, thanks in large part to Derrick Henry. He’s coming off a massive 1,921 rushing yards in the regular season. He also scored the most rushing touchdowns in a season (16) in Ravens history. What a difference a team has made for Henry. This year, the Baltimore offensive line helped him to 784 rushing yards before contact this season. Last year, he managed just 237 in Tennessee. Henry is also seeking a milestone in this one. He’s just 82 rushing yards away from becoming the seventh player in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 playoff rushing yards. The six to do so: Emmitt Smith (1,586), Franco Harris (1,556), Thurman Thomas (1,442), Tony Dorsett (1,383), Marcus Allen (1,347) and Terrell Davis (1,140).
CINCINNATI, OH – NOVEMBER 05: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to pass during the game against the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals on November 5, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
If the current line holds, the Bills will play in their first game as a home underdog since Week 17 of 2020. That’s a whopping 42 straight games, which is the sixth-longest streak in league history. Josh Allen is coming off a 2022 season where he became the sixth All-Pro quarterback since 1970 with zero All-Pro teammates. He averages the most total yards per game (329.1) and total touchdowns per game (2.6) in playoff history. Allen also has the second-most total touchdowns (29) in a player’s first 11 career playoff games all-time. Patrick Mahomes is the leader with 33.
The Bills were home underdogs just one other time in franchise history. That came back in the 1966 AFL Championship when they lost to the Chiefs in the old War Memorial Stadium. Kansas City went on to lose to the Packers in Super Bowl I. If Baltimore does end up closing as the favorite, it’ll be the seventh time Lamar Jackson opened as an underdog and closed as a favorite. The Ravens are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in those games.
Betting Records This Season
BAL: 11-6-1 against the spread, OVER is 13-5 BUF: 11-7 against the spread, OVER is 11-7
We didn’t hit on this one last week, but we’re going back to the well. Andrews is Jackson’s primary red zone target. He’s scored in 10 of his last 13 games.
Win or lose, Allen figures to put up big numbers in this one. Over his nine postseason appearances, Allen averages 320.2 combined passing and rushing yards.
He won’t be a big part of the game plan, but Hollins does figure to see a couple targets each week. He topped this line on just one catch in the Wild Card Round and has been over this number in eight of his last 10 games.
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