Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We start the weekend of NBA action with a tricky five-game slate with three negative game environments, making our DFS choices crucial and difficult. We’re at the point in the bubble where teams will begin resting players in multiple ways. Some will outright not play their starters while others will see starters play limited minutes. The most important part in this stage is making sure you are up to date with team news and paying attention to what coaches say. Let’s get right to it.
PS: If this is your first time on FTN, be sure to check out our amazing Advanced Defense vs. Position tool to highlight the best possible matchups for Saturday’s NBA DFS action.
Los Angeles Clippers vs Portland Trail Blazers (LAC -3.5, 234.5)
Los Angeles is fourth in defensive rating, eighth in pace
Portland is 27th in defensive rating, 12th in pace
The Clippers enter the day on the front-end of a back-to-back with far and away the best matchup on the slate as the Blazers continue to be a team we love to attack in DFS. Luckily, we get the Clippers in the early game meaning we will have definitive news about whether Doc Rivers is resting any of his key guys.
UPDATE 10:15 a.m. ET — Kawhi Leonard has been ruled OUT
With Leonard out, we can expect Paul George to carry significant ownership priced at around $8,000 on both sites. Wit Kawhi off the floor, George is an elite 1.52 FPPM producer. The biggest question surrounding George is whether Rivers will limit his minutes even though he is active. My guess would be no as the trend throughout the regular season was to not limit him. I expect we see a full minutes load in this once.
Per Advanced DvP, it’s hard to find a better spot for George, as the Blazers rank 24th vs. primary ball handlers and 29th vs. scorers. Even with the notion that George will be heavily owned, he’s chalk worth eating at his price tag. View him as an elite target and a priority in lineups.
I expected Lou Williams to see increased minutes last game and was wrong. On Sweet Lou’s minutes, Rivers said, “There’s no actual cap, but there is. He was out for a long time. We don’t want to push him too much.” That doesn’t exactly express much confidence in Lou’s minutes. The matchup is great, but he’s likely someone we can avoid targeting even with Leonard out.
Ivica Zubac has arguably been the most impressive Clipper in the bubble, going for at least 27, 34 and 44 fantasy points in his last three games. Zubac’s minutes feel secure in that 24-26 range and could even potentially see a slight bump because of Portland’s size. I’d expect Zubac to carry fairly high ownership, but he should be considered an elite target priced at $5,300 on DK and $5,200 on FD.
The Blazers provide the right game environment where you can go value hunting with Landry Shamet and Marcus Morris. With Kawhi out, Morris ends up being the biggest beneficiary after George. Morris has played 36 minutes in back-to-back games and will be the second option on offense for the majority of the game. At under $5k on both sites Morris is an elite value.
With Kawhi out, Reggie Jackson becomes a more digestible target. Still, I’m not rushing to prioritize Jackson as I expect we see George and Morris dominate usage. We could also see JaMychal Green see a slight minute bump.
Of all the teams remaining in the bubble, the Blazers players carry the least minute concerns. They are going all out to make the playoffs in the West and Terry Stotts has held true to his word when he said he will play his starters 40 minutes. That sort of minutes security in a time of insecure minutes can’t be ignored, even in a poor matchup against the Clippers.
Damian Lillard has topped 40 minutes in all four games in the bubble so far — of all the $10k players on the slate, he’s arguably the safest because of those minutes. The Clippers rank 10th vs. dimers, 10th vs. primary ball handlers, second vs. scorers, 10th vs. crafty finishers and fifth vs. superstars. Again, brutal matchup, but Lillard has to be considered an elite target because of his minutes floor while averaging 1.39 FPPM in Orlando. His fantasy point mean per 40 minutes is 55.64, priced at $10,000 on DK and $9m700 on FD.
With Kawhi out we don’t have to worry about CJ McCollum seeing him or George for the majority of the game, as George will likely guard Lillard. In the past, we’ve seen McCollum see a slight usage uptick in this scenario. I don’t love the $7,800 DK and $7,300 FD price tags, but CJ is seeing elite minutes (40-plus) at over $2k cheaper than Lillard.
Expect Jusuf Nurkic to be one of the higher-owned spend-up options at center. Nurkic continues to produce at an elite level and remains priced under $9,000 on both sites. Per aDvP, the Clippers rank 13th vs. skilled centers and 14th vs. rebounders. When combining the two traits, they unsurprisingly rank 13th. Still, Nurkic’s minutes floor at 1.55 FPPM is awfully enticing.
Because the Blazers are playing such a shortened rotation, we can also strongly consider Carmelo Anthony, Gary Trent Jr. and Zach Collins. Trent continues to shoot the ball incredibly well and remains a strong value at sub $5k. If fading both Lillard and McCollum, Anthony is a strong stand-alone Blazers target or one to pair with Nurkic or one of the cheaper Blazers.
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Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets (UTA -1, 221)
Utah is 10th in defensive rating, 22nd in pace
Denver is 14th in defensive rating, 29th in pace
The Jazz entered the day on a second of a back-to-back, though they rested their starters on the front-end. I would expect we see the Jazz starters to play but see limited minutes. The Nuggets defense has been brutal in the bubble coming in as the third-worst. Although this game environment is slow, we can attack the Nuggets and their current poor defense.
Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert all sat with designated injuries last game (though I’d view them more as rests). Prior to Friday, Quin Snyder gave no indication he was looking to limit players in Orlando even playing his starters well into the 30-minute range. Whoever ends up playing, we should view as if they are getting their normal minutes. My intrigue in Jazz players varies by site. On DK, Conley priced at $5,900 and Rudy Gobert at $7,500 should be viewed as top targets, as both players are slightly underpriced. I’m not as interested in Mitchell at $7,900. On the other hand, on FD, Mitchell is priced well at $7,300 while Conley is a bit on the pricier side at $6,500. Gobert’s $7,900 price tag is fair.
I have no interest in Joe Ingles as he will be the only Utah starter who played Friday. Though Ingles only played 16 minutes, I’d expect him to be limited to under 25. Because I’m expecting Ingles’ minutes to be down or even potentially sat, I’ve got no interest. Jordan Clarkson also saw limited minutes Friday, which makes me expect him to remain in the low to mid 20s.
If you’re looking for a GPP dart, one player who could benefit from Clarkson and Ingles potentially seeing limited minutes would be Georges Niang. Niang is priced around the minimum and is actually an OK FPPM producer. 20 minutes of Niang is playable at his price.
Mike Malone has flat-out said he does not care what seed the Nuggets will be and is looking to just make sure his team enters the playoffs healthy. Will Barton and Gary Harris are already confirmed out while Jamal Murray remains questionable.
I believe there’s a decent chance Murray makes his debut here but will not see anything close to regular minutes. Murray is safe to ignore if he’s active.
Although I don’t hate the matchup, Nikola Jokic is likely to be limited to under 30 minutes. It’s tough for me to spend up on Jokic in a poor game environment. My intrigue in Jokic would only stem if MMEing, and I’d want minimal exposure.
The one player whose minutes I am not worried about is Michael Porter Jr. MPJ has produced three straight 50-burgers in the bubble and looks flat-out incredible. Malone has unleashed him, and I expect that to continue. I’m also not worried about his price being bumped up to $7,200 on DK and $7,800 on FD. I view Porter as a $9k-plus player, so we’re still getting value here. I expect his ownership to be lower than it should be as his price is up and the Jazz have a stigma as a team to avoid attacking in DFS. I view Porter as an elite target.
After Porter, I really don’t have much interest in any other Jazz players. If Murray sits, Monte Morris remains playable as he’ll be at least in the 30-minute range, priced well at $4,400 on both sites.
With Paul Millsap expected to play after resting last game, I’m less interested in Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee. I don’t expect Millsap to play big minutes so he’s also off my radar.
If you’re feeling froggy and looking for a GPP dart, I do think Bol Bol will see 15-20 minutes here as Malone looks to continue to limit Jokic. Bol should be strictly viewed as a risky dart.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers (LAL -8, 216.5)
Los Angeles is third in defensive rating, 11th in pace
Indiana is seventh in defensive rating, 24th in pace
The Lakers are a bit of a disaster to figure out. LeBron James is questionable along with Alex Caruso. Anthony Davis is listed as probable.
I love attacking the Pacers at center and if LeBron is out I’m going to have interest in Davis even with his minutes not likely to exceed 30 and priced over $10k. AD should be viewed as a risk but him sitting the fourth against Houston on a back-to-back will keep his ownership way down. The fact he played 30 minutes and zero in the fourth quarter is actually encouraging to me.
I don’t have much interest in James — I don’t expect him to play, and even if he does, I would not expect him to see more than 27 minutes. I would also lose quite a bit of interest in Davis if LeBron were to play.
If LeBron sits, Kyle Kuzma can be viewed as an elite target. Kuzma is a 0.95 FPPM producer with LeBron off the floor and played 30 minutes versus Houston. What’s important to note is that Kuzma will also see around 10 minutes with Davis sitting on the bench. With LeBron and Davis off the floor together, Kuzma is a 1.04 FPPM producer. Priced at $5,400 on DK and $5,500 on FD, Kuz offers some value on both sites.
If Caruso and LeBron sit, both Dion Waiters and Quinn Cook become usable punts. Neither did particularly well against Houston but the minutes were there for both.
One interesting note against Houston was that JaVale McGee did not play. If McGee is once again not starting, I’d expect Dwight Howard to play in the 16- to 20-minute range. At close to minimum price, he’d be playable in this scenario.
The Pacers are also a bit of a mess Saturday, as both T.J. Warren and Myles Turner are questionable. While I don’t like attacking a healthy Lakers team in DFS, the Lakers defensive rating regresses to around 109 in games LeBron James does not play. I don’t expect either Warren or Turner to play.
If Turner sits, Goga Bitzade becomes an elite value. Goga is priced at the minimum on both sites and is a 0.81 FPPM producer with both Turner and Domantas Sabonis off the floor. I’d expect we see around 20-24 minutes of Goga in this scenario, he’d provide elite cap relief with a safe floor and strong ceiling.
If Warren sits, Malcolm Brogdon would become one of the more intriguing PGs to target with the expectation that his minutes would not be limited. Brogdon produces at a strong 1.34 FPPM rate with Sabonis and Warren off the floor. Brogdon has played over 30 minutes in every game he’s played in the bubble so it’s safe to assume he’d be in the low 30s. $6,900 on DK and $6,600 on FD are good prices for him in this scenario. Brogdon’s main risks would be if he himself saw his minutes limited and the fact the Lakers are an elite defense. Still, I’m fairly confident we see normal Brogdon minutes as the Pacers at least have seeding to play for. Consider him an elite target if Warren is scratched.
Victor Oladipo’s minutes have been solid, his usage and efficiency have not. It’s tough to trust Dipo against an elite defense like the Lakers but if LeBron is scratched and Warren sits, then this becomes a really intriguing Oladipo bubble-breakout game. Dipo is a GPP special for me depending on LeBron and Warren’s statues.
Justin Holiday, JaKarr Sampson and Doug McDermott are targetable values if Warren sit, but I would only have minimal interest. If Warren and Turner sit, we could see Sampson get minutes at three different positions.
Aaron Holiday is actually the Pacers player with the safest minutes. Holiday has played over 34 minutes in every game in the bubble and will likely be in the 37ish range if Warren sits. I don’t love the matchup but I do like the minutes opportunity at a sub-$5,000 price-point.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat (MIA -2.5, 225)
Phoenix is 18th in defensive rating, ninth in pace
Miami is 13th in defensive rating, 27th in pace
The Suns are the only undefeated team in the bubble and with them making a very late surge for that potential No. 8 seed in the West, I fully expect their starters to play starter-like minutes. Again, on a slate full of uncertainty, that is crucial. That said, Miami is a tough team to attack as they play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA even though they do play at a slightly faster pace in games Jimmy Butler does not play.
At $8,300 on DK and $8,000 on FD, I’m a fan of Devin Booker. Although aDvP screams “do not play Booker,” I’m trusting the player’s talent and minutes security here over the matchup. No Butler will also help Booker moderately. There is a qualitative factor here to consider with Draymond Green basically saying free Booker from Phoenix on national TV Friday. Although this is a first, Booker typically reacts well to qualitative instances, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him let it fly in response.
I’ve been impressed with Deandre Ayton in Orlando and while he remains priced too cheap on both sites, I really do not like attacking Miami at center. Because both Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo are primary ball handlers that stay on the perimeter with Butler out, that will pull Ayton away from the rim and limit his rebounding upside. I get that the price is elite for Ayton and he should see strong minutes, but I just don’t see a ceiling game.
Cameron Johnson has also impressed in the bubble and has been playing huge minutes. We should expect Johnson to continue to play those minutes, which makes him worth considering priced around $5k. This is another instance of me looking to target the minutes security even in a bad matchup.
Lastly, with Jevon Carter seeing a slight minutes bump, Ricky Rubio’s production has regressed the last two games. On FD, priced at $5,900, Rubio is someone we can consider. On DK priced at $6,400 I’m less interested in Rubio. Miami ranks second vs. dimers and sixth vs. primary ball handlers per aDvP.
As mentioned, Miami will be without Butler again. The Heat will also be missing Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic is listed as questionable.
If Dragic plays, Dragic can strongly be considered priced around $5k on both sites in a positive matchup against the Suns, who rank 17th vs. dimers, 18th vs. primary ball handlers and 25th vs. scorers. If Dragic is given no minutes restriction, he should be viewed as an elite target and would be a priority for me.
Things get really interesting for Miami if Dragic sits as they will be without a true “PG.” At $5,100 on DK and $4,500 on FD, we can expect Tyler Herro to carry high ownership regardless of Dragic’s status. If Dragic is scratched, Herro would likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. With Nunn and Butler off the floor, Herro is a 0.94 FPPM producer.
I’m most interested in Adebayo. The reason for Bam’s down minutes last game was foul trouble, not rest. Prior to that Bam was in the 30-minute range. I love the spot here for Bam as he is one of aDvP’s trait darlings carrying both guard and big-man traits.
Bam is a 1.25 FPPM producer with Butler off the court and is priced well on both sites at $7,400 on DK and $7,600 on FD. I would not expect Bam to carry high ownership.
The big reason why Bam won’t be high owned is because everyone will look to target Olynyk. He’s an elite value still incorrectly priced under $5k on both sites. One really strong GPP strategy is to target both Bam and Kelly as they will both be primary ball handlers for Miami particularly if Dragic is scratched. He’s chalk, but chalk worth eating; consider Olynyk an elite target.
No Dragic would also open up ball handling opportunities for Andre Iguodala. In his last two games Iguodala is averaging 30 fantasy points which plays quite nice at his mid $4k price tag. Iguodala will carry some ownership but won’t be super heavily owned. He should be viewed as a top value to consider.
I have no issues targeting Duncan Robinson but I was surprised to see that the Suns are one of the better teams against shooters ranking 8th in aDvP against the trait. He will be a 0.6-0.8 FPPM producer in this spot, which plays OK at his price tag considering the likelihood he plays over 30 minutes.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks (MIL -5.5, 232.5)
Milwaukee is first in defensive rating, first in pace
Dallas is 17th in defensive rating, 18th in pace
Mike Budenholzer stated he was using the Heat matchup last game as his playoff tuneup. Bud stayed true to his word and Bucks starters played starter-like minutes. We’re now back to the guessing game with the Bucks as there’s a decent chance we see their studs limited again as they have nothing to play for.
This is an elite spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo I’m just leaning on the side that he’s not going to see more than 24 minutes. At his price tag, I’d prefer to target players with more secure minutes like Damian Lillard. That said, I’m not against Giannis exposure — if he’s in the 28-minute range or higher, he has slate-breaking upside. Target Giannis at your own risk.
What was said about Giannis can be said about all the Bucks starters. The most intriguing of course is Khris Middleton — however, like Giannis, he carries serious minute concerns. To be honest, as good as this matchup is, unless Budenholzer announces that he is outright sitting players, I think it’s fairly safe to avoid Bucks. We’ll likely see a 12-man rotation deployed here. Make sure to stay tuned in our Discord chat or check back for updates regarding the Bucks.
Luckily, the Mavericks actually have something to play for as they are currently sitting in the No. 7 seed in the West, only one game behind the Thunder sitting in sixth and two behind the Jazz in fifth. The seventh seed is the seed to avoid in the West as they get matched up against the Clippers in the first round. This is a pace-up spot for the Mavericks, who will likely play against a less intense Bucks defense and potentially against backups for long stretches of the game.
Luka Doncic is the top overall player on the slate. In a pace-up spot with little minutes concern, I would gladly pay up for Luka on both sites. Advanced DvP hates the matchup, but I’m not viewing this same Bucks defense as it has been viewed all year as they have literally no motivation with nothing to play for. The increased pace should lead to added rebounding opportunities too and a matchup against Giannis provides a fun qualitative factor that could motivate Luka. He’s far from a must but should be considered an elite target.
Interestingly enough, as good as the Bucks defense is, they rank 21st against stretch bigs and 15th against rim protectors. The stretch big ranking makes sense as Milwaukee collapses the paint on drives leaving shooters open. Kristaps Porzingis is priced really well on both sites, listed at $8,400 on DK and $8,800 on DK. In three of his four games in Orlando, Porzingis has been over 50 fantasy points. I’d expect KP to go underowned here, he’s one of my favorite spend-up targets on the slate.
After the big two, I’m pessimistic about the rest of the Mavericks, as I don’t fully trust Carlisle and his rotations. That said, it’s hard to ignore Trey Burke in a pace-up spot priced under $4k on both sites and likely playing 26-plus minutes. Burke is a usable value.
If Dorian Finney-Smith is unable to play Justin Jackson becomes a playable minimum priced punt at SF. Jackson is a poor per-minute producer but would likely see 25-plus minutes. Burke would also benefit if Finney-Smith is scratched.
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