Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The weekend, the NASCAR Cup series heads to Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a two-mile intermediate track. For projections purposes, I also use Kansas and Auto Club as the most similar tracks along with Chicagoland and Kentucky for a larger sample size. You can check these NASCAR DFS projections out in our NASCAR DFS Optimizer.
Of course, the research process is more than just running some numbers in an optimizer. To really help us pinpoint drivers, we need to incorporate some other stats. Two metrics I love to use to identify players for my builds are driver rating and percentage of laps in the top-15. However, simply calculating an average for these stats doesn’t necessarily give us an accurate view of what to expect. Like any athlete, drivers can trend up or down over time. To account for trends, I weight both metrics with the most recent races getting the highest weighting.
So let’s take a look at the weighted driver ratings and top-15 percentages for both the Michigan races and all races on Michigan and similar tracks over the last five NASCAR seasons.
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Dominators
Over the last five years, only four drivers have won here at Michigan. One of them is Kevin Harvick ($11,000), who yet again is the most expensive driver on the slate. Harvick starts third, a spot he won from in August of 2018. With five top-5s in his last eight races here, Harvick is one of top dominators on the board.
Joey Logano ($9,700) also has two wins here over that span. It’s tough to trust Logano most weeks, but he’s starting from the pole and is in play to rack up dominator points early on. Logano won from the pole here in June of last year. Logano’s Penske teammates Bred Keselowski ($10,100) and Ryan Blaney ($10,600) are also in play. Keselowski is coming off a win last week, and Blaney has been very fast since the Cup series resumed.
Penske affiliate Matt DiBenedetto’s ($8,400) numbers may not paint the most favorable picture above, but he’s in a fast car this season and should be considered as a mid-priced option. You get some place differential potential out Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800), who starts 12th. Truex finish in the top five in both races here last year and is a viable threat to win the race.
Denny Hamlin ($10,400) has been running very well this season and has some dominator potential thanks to his No. 2 spot on the starting grid. That said, it may be wise to face Hamlin. He has just two top-10s in his last five races here. Likewise, Clint Bowyer ($7,400) did win here in 2018, but he also had finishes of 35th and 37th at Michigan last year.
Place differential plays
We should really just rename this section “Erik Jones” ($8,800), as the young driver has another favorable starting spot on the grid at 23rd. Keep in mind that Jones only has one top-10 finish here in the Cup Series, so he is volatile. William Byron ($8,200) finished eighth in the last race here and starts 19th. Christopher Bell ($9,900) isn’t cheap, but he starts 29th and offers some big-time place differential potential.
Value plays
Cole Custer ($6,700) hasn’t been the most consistent driver in his rookie season, but he did show the ability to put in a very good race on a similar tract at Kentucky last month. He’s tough to pass up at his price point. Corey LaJoie ($5,600) no seems to be the every-week salary relief guy. He starts 36th, so it won’t be too tough for him to reach value. Ryan Preece ($5,800) finally managed to finish a race last week and starts 35th on the grid.
Other drivers worth exposure
The drivers listed above form my core, but I’m also going to have some light exposure to the following:
Chase Elliott ($9,300) – seven top 10s in his last eight races here
Alex Bowman ($7,700) – finished 10th in both Michigan races in 2019
Austin Dillon ($7,500) – not the most consistent, but has shown upside at Michigan in the past
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,900) – always a risk, but that risk paid off last week
Ty Dillon ($5,700) – he’s cheap and starts 34t
