The Double Dip: Fantasy baseball 2-start pitchers for the week

The Double Dip over at FTN for 2021 fantasy baseball — and it’s meant to highlight pitchers that are making two starts in a week. Some of the plays may be obvious — you don’t need me telling you that when Jacob deGrom is starting twice, a 1,000-word soliloquy highlighting why it’s a good idea to start him. You just do it.

But volume is key, especially two-start-pitcher volume. This column aims to identify all the two start hurlers, the ones that are no-brainers, the ones that are avoids, and most importantly, focus on the tough-to-call decisions.

Each week, I’ll do my best to highlight some of those tricky arms, and what could come your way.

All of the two-steppers (35)

Luke Weaver, AZ (vs MIA, vs WAS)
Madison Bumgarner, AZ (vs MIA, vs WAS)
Max Fried, ATL (vs TOR, at MIL)
Jorge López, BAL (vs BOS, vs NYY)
John Means, BAL (vs BOS, vs NYY)
Martín Pérez, BOS (at BAL, vs LAA)
Nathan Eovaldi, BOS (at BAL, vs LAA)
Adbert Alzolay, CHC (at CLE, at DET)
Jeff Hoffman, CIN (at PIT, at COL)
Sonny Gray, CIN (at PIT, at COL)
Shane Bieber, CLE (vs CHC, at SEA)
Antonio Senzatela, COL (vs SD, vs CIN)
Jon Gray, COL (vs SD, vs CIN)
Dylan Cease, CHW (vs MIN, vs KC)
Casey Mize, DET (vs KC, vs CHC)
Luis García, HOU (vs LAA, vs TEX)
Lance McCullers Jr., HOU (vs LAA, vs TEX)
Brady Singer, KC (at DET, at CWS)
Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs SEA, vs MIA)
Dan Castano, MIA (at AZ, at LAD)
Pablo López, MIA (at AZ, at LAD)
Freddy Peralta, MIL (vs STL, vs ATL)
J.A. Happ, MIN (at CWS, vs OAK)
Jordan Montgomery, NYY (at TB, at BAL)
Chris Bassitt, OAK (at BOS, at MIN)
Chase Anderson, PHI (at WAS, at TOR)
Mitch Keller, PIT (vs CIN, vs SF)
JT Brubaker, PIT (vs CIN, vs SF)
Ryan Weathers, SD (at COL, vs STL)
Aaron Sanchez, SF (vs TEX, at PIT)
Kwang-hyun Kim, STL (at MIL, at SD)
Ryan Yarbrough, TB (vs NYY, vs NYM)
Kyle Gibson, TEX (at SF, at HOU)
Robbie Ray, TOR (at ATL, vs PHI)
Erick Fedde, WAS (vs PHI, at AZ)

The no-brainers (14)

This group should definitely be in your starting lineup — whether it’s due to matchup or just sheer brilliance, don’t overthink this one. This is a larger group than regular, mostly due to excellent matchups.

Madison Bumgarner, AZ (vs MIA, vs WAS)
John Means, BAL (vs BOS, vs NYY)
Martín Pérez, BOS (at BAL, vs LAA)
Nathan Eovaldi, BOS (at BAL, vs LAA)
Sonny Gray, CIN (at PIT, at COL)
Shane Bieber, CLE (vs CHC, at SEA)
Dylan Cease, CHW (vs MIN, vs KC)
Lance McCullers Jr., HOU (vs LAA, vs TEX)
Brady Singer, KC (at DET, at CWS)
Trevor Bauer, LAD (vs SEA, vs MIA)
Pablo López, MIA (at AZ, at LAD)
Freddy Peralta, MIL (vs STL, vs ATL)
J.A. Happ, MIN (at CWS, vs OAK)
Kyle Gibson, TEX (at SF, at HOU)

The run-and-hides (6)

This group should only be started out of pure desperation — the volume is nice, and it definitely could end up working out for you, but starting these hurlers is a real gamble.

Luke Weaver, AZ (vs MIA, vs WAS, 32% roster percentage in NFBC leagues): Weaver has been pretty poor this season, logging a near 5.00 ERA. The upside is a strikeout per inning and a matchup against a Miami Marlins offense that isn’t clicking. But, if you get chased early by the road Rockies, I cannot trust you.
Jorge López, BOS (vs. BOS, vs. NYY, 0%): The matchups are absolutely dreadful, and Lopez has shown me nothing that makes me get excited to start him this week. If you start him, it’s definitely playing with fire.
Antonio Senzatela, COL (vs. SD, vs. CIN, 0%): Two starts in Denver and against two high powered offense? No thank you. Don’t overthink this one. This also nearly lands teammate Jon Gray in this category, but more on him later.
Dan Castano, MIA (at AZ, at LAD, 0%): The southpaw is being given every opportunity in the world to take this opportunity and run with it, and he just isn’t producing. The Arizona matchup sans-Ketel Marte isn’t particularly fear-instilling, but that Dodgers lineup, despite a rash of injuries, is.
Chase Anderson, PHI (at WAS, at TOR, 2%): While Anderson’s overall numbers are skewed by a six earned run effort in Denver, flat out, he still is on shaky footing. He logged a 7.22 ERA last season (while averaging over a whiff per inning), and he has a 5.54 ERA this season. The Blue Jays in Dunedin? No way.
Mitch Keller, PIT (vs. CIN, vs. SF, 4%): Mega-hyped Keller posted his best outing of the season last time out, against the juggernaut Padres offense, no less. But let’s be real — Keller has been very bad. Like 6.29 ERA, 1.68 WHIP bad so far this year. The home starts give him a moderate amount of appeal, but that’s about it.

The meat and potatoes (15)

This group is one that takes a bit more thinking — the volume is nice, but the matchup could be tricky. Is it worth taking the risk on a questionable start for what could be some juicy fantasy goodness? Let’s dig in and find out.

And since they say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I am going to use a similar rating scale that Clay Link and Todd Zola do over at Rotowire — if I was playing in five fantasy baseball leagues, how many would I feel comfortable starting this hurler? Using that as our barometer, we should be able to appropriately deem the risk and reward that’s available if you so choose to start this arm. Keep in mind — your league and team context are always key. I’m using a 12-team NFBC Online Championship format as my primary backdrop.

Max Fried, ATL (vs. TOR, at MIL, 100%) — THREE LEAGUES OUT OF FIVE: Most likely, you are starting Fried nearly everywhere. The results have just been so awful that you may shy away, but after an outing where he looked better, Fried deserves a spot in your lineups. Toronto is certainly a powerful attack to be wary of, but hopefully that 8-plus ERA works its way down soon.
Martín Pérez, BOS (at BAL, vs. LAA, 15%) — TWO: Perez really just doesn’t do it for me — and what stinks is that nearly any somewhat competent arm in this absurd Boston offense could rack up some wins. But start one comes inside Camden Yards, and with Albert Pujols gone, this strong Angels offense becomes even scarier.
Adbert Alzolay, CHC (at CLE, at DET, 100%) — FOUR: This is quite the set up for the young right-hander. Wade Miley (not a typo) no-hit this terrible offense, and the Tigers rank second-worst in strikeout rate in major league baseball. Alzolay has leaned heavily on a slider, similar to Dinelson Lamet — he’s fired the wipeout pitch 46% of the time, leading to a 30.0% strikeout rate. Start with supreme confidence.
Jeff Hoffman, CIN (at PIT, at COL, 53%) — TWO: After getting outside of Denver, there was optimism that Hoffman would find his footing. While he started the year strong, Hoffman has logged a 9.95 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last two weeks — over two starts, he’s lasted only 6.1 IP. Yikes. Add in a start in Coors Field? Be careful here.
Jon Gray, COL (vs. SD, vs. CIN, 100%) — TWO: Gray has historically struggled in Coors, although this year has been better than most. However, Gray gets two starts in Denver against two really good offense. This is a stay away from me, but given his strong outings to start the year, I don’t blame you if you want to take a chance.
Casey Mize, DET (vs. KC, vs. CHC, 90%) — TWO: The young Mize has been okay as a mainstay in his first full regular season in the major leagues. Sporting a fastball about 50% of the time, he’s generated a nice 55.9% ground-ball rate. The problem is that this approach has led to an 16.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. Both teams he will face have just been okay — and he will need to improve to take a step forward as a fantasy relevant starter.
Luis García, HOU (vs. LAA, vs. TEX, 55%) — TWO: This is a tale of two very unique offenses that Garcia will stack up against. The Angels have been one of the league’s best — they own a team wOBA of .325 with only a 21.6% strikeout rate, but the Rangers have been brutal in 2021 with a team wOBA of .307 and a 26.9% whiff rate. Garcia was solid in Yankee stadium, so proceed here with caution.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY (at TB, at BAL, 100%) — FOUR: For the first start alone, this week is a bit breathtaking. Montgomery faces a Tampa Bay squad with a 30.2% strikeout rate against southpaws, and that makes the play good enough. Fire in a start against Baltimore (albeit one in hitter-friendly Camden Yards), who own a .292 wOBA, and Montgomery is a solid option.
Chris Bassitt, OAK (at BOS, at MIN, 100%) — FOUR: There’s clearly a pile of risk here, but in a pitching depleted environment like we have seen so far in 2021, Bassitt is basically a must start. He’s an innings eater, piling up 41.1 IP this season, and the 47.0% ground-ball rate limits the damage significantly. Tough matchups, but probably worth it.
JT Brubaker, PIT (vs. CIN, vs. SF, 87%) — THREE: Recommending Pirates starters is a bit of a scary exercise, for sure — but Brubaker has been really darn good so far this season. Brubaker pounds the strike zone with a 57.0% ground-ball rate and 26.8% strikeout rate, and that’s made him fantasy relevant. Cincinnati is a bit less scary outside of Great American Smallpark, so he makes for a solid play.
Ryan Weathers, SD (at COL, vs. STL, 93%) — TWO: The volume is outstanding with Weathers, but any arm coming off an injury is a wait-and-see type of approach is one that I normally take. Fire in a Coors start is a bit scary, but St. Louis isn’t a great offensive team. It’s hard passing up the volume but I’m curious, given the arm injuries to Dinelson Lamet and Adrian Morejon, how the Padres handle Weathers return.
Aaron Sanchez, SF (vs. TEX, at PIT, 90%) — FOUR: These are two incredible options for the right-hander Sanchez — we have highlighted the Rangers deficiencies so far, and Pittsburgh clocks in with a .291 wOBA and .122 ISO mark. Start.
Kwang-hyun Kim, STL (at MIL, at SD, 100%) — THREE: Any two stepper is particularly intriguing — even one like Kim, who faces a very tough San Diego offense with only a 21.9% strikeout rate and powerful bats like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is a mess — Christian Yelich returned to the Injured List, and Keston Hiura is back down on the farm.
Ryan Yarbrough, TB (vs. NYY, vs. NYM, 95%) — THREE: Likely returning from symptoms from the COVID-19 IL vaccin, Yarbrough is likely following the opener in both of these contests. The Yankees have been hitting better as of late, but the Mets have been brutal. The Mets sport a .305 team wOBA mark this season and have struggled mightily at the dish.
Robbie Ray, TOR (at ATL, vs. PHI, 100%) — FOUR: While these are two very difficult offensive matchups for the left-hander Ray, I am very intrigued. He finally seems to be commanding some demons — and by that, I mean literally, as he has curbed the egregious walk rate. Ray was always his own worst enemy — he did not pound the strike zone, but with an elevated first-pitch strike rate north of 60%, he’s exhibiting significant success. Start.
Erick Fedde, WAS (vs. PHI, at AZ, 20%) — THREE: This is a unique set of two steps. The offense I thought would be better of the two, the Phillies, isn’t — they own a team wOBA of .301 with a juicy 27.9% strikeout rate. With Ketel Marte out, the offense I thought would be bad isn’t — they own a .317 wOBA and a 21.9% strikeout rate. If Fedde can curb the walks (10.9%), he could be a very sneaky end-of-the-rotation piece.