Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
We kick off the week with a solid seven-game slate around the NBA. There is certainly one game that stands out above the rest in terms of games to target for fantasy but that doesn’t mean we should completely ignore the other contests on this slate.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Kings @ Timberwolves preview
SAC -4.5, total: 233.5
This is a game between two of the worst defenses in the NBA, setting up for plenty of fantasy production. This is a fantastic spot for De'Aaron Fox, who faces a weak Minnesota team that ranks 27th against dimers, 24th against primary ball handlers, 24th against scorers and 25th against crafty finishers. The latter bodes well for Fox, who is averaging 17.9 drives per game on the season, good for the seventh-most in the league. Meanwhile, Minnesota is also coughing up the second-most transition points per game (23.2), to go along with the third-highest field goal percentage (57.2%) and fifth-most points per possession (1.19) off the play type. Fox excels out on the break, averaging 5.5 transition points per game this season, the fifth-most in the league. I’m also perfectly fine with Tyrese Haliburton at $6,500 on DraftKings. He continues to start games with Marvin Bagley sidelined while closing and logging 33-35 minutes most nights. Haliburton also has the dimer archetype, as well as shooter, which Minnesota ranks 29th in the league against. That could definitely bode well for Buddy Hield, too, while the Timberwolves are coughing up the most points per possession to shooters off screens this season (1.17). Hield is averaging 2.9 points per game off screens this season, good for the fifth-most in the league. He is still under $6,000 on DK, too. In a matchup this good, the entire Sacramento starting five is in play for me this evening, honestly.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been outstanding as of late. He just scored 39 points with 14 rebounds and five assists against Joel Embiid and the 76ers and has now scored at least 53 fantasy points in each of his last six games. This matchup against the Kings is much better, as Sacramento ranks 30th against scorers, 30th against skilled centers, 27th against rebounders and 29th against superstars. They are also allowing the most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.29) while also ranking bottom seven in points per game against the pick and roll and post-ups, both of which are huge parts of Towns’ game. This is also a major ceiling spot for Anthony Edwards, who is sporting a 28.6% usage rate over the last two weeks while averaging over a fantasy point per minute during that stretch. The Kings struggle to defend skilled scorers while also ranking dead last against crafty finishers. Meanwhile, Malik Beasley is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, as well as Ricky Rubio. Their absences would keep this a two-man show in Minnesota while Jordan McLaughlin will remain in the starting lineup. He’s logged 33 and 42 minutes over the last two games.
Jazz @ Mavericks preview
UTA -4.5, total: 223
Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis on the second leg of their back-to-back over the weekend, but he is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest with a knee issue. Josh Richardson, who also missed Saturday’s game, is also questionable to play with a calf injury. The Mavericks actually started Boban Marjanovic at center over the weekend, his third start of the season. He logged 24 minutes and whenever he plays significant minutes, he smashes. That was the case, as he scored 33.5 fantasy points. In over 212 minutes with Porzingis off the floor this season, Boban is sporting a 24.9% usage rate and 45% rebounding rate while averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute in the split. It is worth noting that Dallas was without Maxi Kleber in their last game, and he is now off the injury report. But if he is in the starting lineup again, Marjanovic has to once again be worth a look and against the Jazz and Rudy Gobert, this is a game where he could actually play 20-plus minutes again. Of course, feel free to play Luka Doncic regardless of Porzingis’ status, but especially if he’s out. With KP off the floor this season, Doncic is sporting a massive 37.3% usage rate, 26% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate while averaging 1.54 fantasy points per minute.
For the Jazz, my main interest once again lies within the frontcourt and Rudy Gobert. Dallas has been good at defending guards this season, while Donovan Mitchell is simply too expensive at $9,100 on DK. Gobert has been a bit up-and-down as of late, but the rebounds are always going to be there, as his 22.8 rebounding chances per game are good for the second-most in the NBA this season. In two meetings with the Mavericks this season, Gobert is averaging 23 points, 16 rebounds, 2.5 blocks and 51.8 fantasy points per game. There is also extra shot-blocking potential against Doncic, who is among the league leaders in drives per game. I really don’t love the price tags on anyone from this Utah team, however, making this roster secondary options at best on this slate.
Wizards @ Raptors preview
TOR -4.5, total: 228.5
Once again we head into a slate with Bradley Beal (hip) questionable and Russell Westbrook dominating for the Wizards. Beal has missed the last four games and during that span, Westbrook is averaging a healthy 104.3 touches per game, a number that easily leads the league. Westbrook is also averaging 10.4 minutes of possession per game during that stretch, which also leads the league. He has recorded a whopping eight triple-doubles over his last 10 games and is a threat to post one every time he steps onto the floor, especially if Beal remains sidelined. Jerome Robinson had been starting in Beal’s place, but Washington started Garrison Matthews on Saturday, resulting in the same amount of fantasy points as you and I in 19 minutes. The answer to that riddle is zero. We also saw Rui Hachimura scratched after initially being listed in the starting five. He’s questionable to play with shoulder tightness. In his absence over the weekend, Deni Avdija played 39 minutes while Chandler Hutchison logged 20.
The Raptors get a great matchup here, facing a Wizards team that still leads the league in pace. However, they are pretty banged up entering this game. We know that Kyle Lowry is out for the next week or so while Rodney Hood has also been ruled out. But now Fred VanVleet is on the injury report after he left Friday’s game with a hip injury. He is questionable to play on Monday. Gary Trent has been very good over his last three games, scoring 32.5, 40.5 and 40.7 fantasy points. He’s played 35 minutes with Lowry and VanVleet off the floor since joining the Raptors but is sporting a usage rate north of 30% in that span. Pascal Siakam, meanwhile, is coming off a huge game and is averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute with both guards off the court this season. Malachi Flynn could become a strong value play at $3,500 if VanVleet is ruled out, especially with Lowry and Hood already sidelined.
Pistons @ Thunder preview
DET -3, total: 212
Is this the least exciting game of the season?
It very well might be, but there can still be some fantasy value to be had. I do like this matchup for Mason Plumlee, who is sporting a 38% rebounding rate and averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute over the last four weeks. He’s been a very strong facilitator, too, giving him sneaky triple-double upside. This is a good spot, facing a Thunder team that ranks 21st in basketball against both skilled centers and rebounders this season. They are also coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (1.02) to the post, as well as the second-worst field goal percentage (54.1%). Oklahoma City is also allowing the fourth-most assists per game to opposing centers (4.01), as well as the fifth-most rebounds per game to the position (15.9). I also remain intrigued by Hamidou Diallo, who continues to be a fairly high usage player. This should be a game the Pistons can keep close, which could lead to 30-plus minutes for Diallo, who just so happens to be facing his former team.
Moses Brown remains the top player from the Thunder. Over the last 10 games, he is averaging 20.7 rebounding chances per game, good for the sixth-most in basketball during that span. His minutes have also been down as of late due to blowouts but as I said, this game should stay close, paving the way for Brown to play 33-35 minutes.
Knicks @ Nets preview
BKN -4.5, total: 217
Kyrie Irving has been the main man in Brooklyn as of late. Kevin Durant is still out while James Harden has missed the last two games. Durant is getting closer to a return but is doubtful for Monday’s game, while Harden is questionable. Over the last two games, Irving is averaging 96 touches per game, while sporting a 31% usage rate during that span. If Harden is once again ruled out, feel free to go right back to Irving at $10,000, even in a slow-paced, tough matchup against New York. Meanwhile, Joe Harris will continue to play 35 minutes with Harden out, but he hasn’t taken advantage of Harden’s absence over the last two games. Now his price is up to $6,200 on DK. I’d rather play Bruce Brown at $5,400, assuming Harden sits out again, though he’s been nothing to write home about either.
I really like Julius Randle on the other side of this game. He faces a Brooklyn team that is surrendering the most post-up points per game on the season (7.1) while opponents are posting up 6.5% of the time against the Nets, good for the highest rate in the league. Randle, meanwhile, is averaging 4.2 post-up points per game on the year, good for the ninth-most in the NBA. He is averaging 57 fantasy points per game in two meetings with the Nets this season. Meanwhile, all of the point guards are healthy, which takes the entire backcourt out of consideration for me. And while Nerlens Noel has had some strong games in Mitchell Robinson’s absence, Taj Gibson continues to cut into Noel’s minutes, making this team even less appealing than usual for fantasy purposes.
Cavaliers @ Spurs preview
SAS -9, total: 217.5
Both Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance have missed the last few games for the Cavaliers and are questionable to play here. If they are out again, Kevin Love could finally become interesting, as his minutes have been climbing up a bit as of late. A matchup with the Spurs could bode well for him, too, as San Antonio is coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (1.09) and fifth-worst field goal percentage (41.7%) to spot-up shooters this season. Meanwhile, Collin Sexton remains a very safe volume play, as he’s scored 20 or more real points in eight of his last 10 games while the shot attempts continue to hover around the 17-20 range.
For the Spurs, Keldon Johnson is finally coming off a strong game, going for 20 points and 10 rebounds. His rebounding has been pretty consistent all season long, and I still believe that a $5,500 price tag is a tad too low. I also have no issues getting to both Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan in this favorable matchup against a struggling Cleveland defense. Murray could especially take advantage of a Cavs team that really struggles to defend in transition, too.
Suns @ Rockets preview
PHX -14, total: 220.5
John Wall continues to struggle with a knee injury that will likely keep him out for this game. It will mark his fourth-straight absence and during that span, Kevin Porter Jr. leads the Rockets in touches per game (75.8) while his 6.1 minutes of possession per game during that stretch are good for 12th-most in the league. However, at $7,300 on DK against a good Suns defense, Porter definitely isn’t my favorite play of the slate despite Wall’s absence. Avery Bradley isn’t anywhere close to the usage that Porter has been seeing, but he’s playing 27-30 minutes right now and is still just $3,600, presenting some value. Of course, if Houston is going to make this game competitive, Christian Wood will likely be a huge reason why. He is dominating the glass right now and with Wall off the floor this season, Wood is sporting a 27% usage rate while averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute in the split.
His production has been all over the place this season, but this is definitely a spot where we could see a ceiling game from Deandre Ayton. Houston’s defense is awful, as it is also allowing the third-most points per game to the post this season (6.4) while teams are posting up 6.2% of the time against the Rockets, the second-highest rate in basketball. Meanwhile, Devin Booker has posted tremendous games in three of his last four and now the price tag is all the way up to $9,000 on DK. That doesn’t remove him from consideration, especially in a matchup this good, but it is fair to wonder if Chris Paul is the better option at $8,30 given how similar their floors have been for much of the season. Both are very strong options in this spot, however.
