College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 9
Walter Waddell
Week 14 brings us two matchups with critical playoff implications. The Miami Dolphins (9-3) are massive 14-point favorites over Tennessee, with Miami looking to reclaim the No. 1 seed from the Ravens with a victory. The Packers travel to New York, battling the Giants and trying to extend their current winning streak to four games.
Here is my favorite prop bet for Week 14’s Monday night matchups!
Saquon Barkley Over 90.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
(-112, BetRivers)
Saquon Barkley is the center of the Giants offense and has a fantastic matchup against a Green Bay run defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA. The Packers allow the third-most rushing yards per game (136.3), including a whopping 146.3 YPG in their last three contests.
Per our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, Barkley’s production has still beat this number consistently when the Giants are betting underdogs.
Even though his production is less than when the Giants are a favorite, Barkley has consistently averaged 67.4 rushing yards and 29.9 receiving yards per game in these matchups. If you filter down to games where the Giants were an underdog to Green Bay, Barkley’s averages are even higher. While it is only a two-game sample, Barkley has posted averages of 76.5 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards in those games.
There has been high variance with the rushing/receiving totals of other elite running backs this season, particularly in feature night games on Thursday or Monday nights. Use Tony Pollard’s Week 6 hit against the Chargers as a perfect example. Instead of guessing Barkley’s production in either the rushing or receiving part of the offense, we are simply backing his overall effectiveness in a great matchup.
Our FTN Betting Model projects Barkley for 79.3 rushing yards and 22.5 receiving yards, putting him comfortably over this number. This line is set between 91.5 and 93.5 total yards at most books, making the 90.5 rushing/receiving total even more enticing.
The Pick
Saquon Barkley Over 90.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards
