Week 14 Player Props: Rushing Yards for A.J. Dillon from EV Insight

A.J. DillonRushing Yards

Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect A.J. Dillon to garner 18.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
While A.J. Dillon has received 52.5% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Green Bay’s run game in this contest at 36.3%.
The Green Bay O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
This year, the tough New York Giants run defense has allowed a mere 4.92 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 30th-smallest rate in football.

Cons

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 42.8% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to run only 63.9 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game.
A.J. Dillon’s running efficiency (3.54 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (15th percentile among RBs).
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, New York’s group of DTs has been excellent this year, ranking as the best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards