NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Week 2 of the NFL season starts with the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Minnesota Vikings. You can find all our Week 2 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at two of my other favorite props for Week 2’s Thursday Night Football matchup.
Week 2 Thursday Night Player Props
Jalen Hurts Over 248.5 Passing Yards
(-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota’s Week 1 performance against the Buccaneers was very disappointing, especially on defense. The Vikings faced a Tampa Bay offense with veteran Baker Mayfield operating behind a porous offensive line. FTN’s Dan Fornek ranked the Buccaneers unit as the No. 28 offensive line in the preseason, which was before center Ryan Jensen was placed on season-ending injured reserve (knee). Now, Minnesota travels to Philadelphia for the Eagles home opener, facing the league’s best offensive line.
The Vikings produced no pass rush against Tampa Bay, recording no interceptions or fumble recoveries, and just one sack. This is a replay of the battle between these two teams last year in Week 2, a game the Eagles dominated 24-7. In that matchup, Jalen Hurts thrashed the Vikings secondary for 333 passing yards, completing 26-of-31 attempts.
I don’t know why this year would be any different.
My only concern here is gamescript, which is why Hurts only recorded 170 passing yards in the Eagles Week 1 victory at New England. Philadelphia jumped out to a 16-0 first quarter lead and played conservative the rest of the way. However, I think the Vikings will be able to move the ball against an Eagles defense that was overrated last year, playing against an inferior schedule of opponents. With the second-highest point total on the Week 2 slate (49 points), I expect the Vikings to score, forcing Hurts to continue to attack Minnesota through the air.
We project Hurts for 266.9 passing yards, equating to an 8.1% edge on our FTN Player Projections Model.
A.J. Brown Under 5.5 Receptions
(-120, Caesars)
As dominant a receiver as A.J. Brown is, it’s hard to get six receptions. Including the playoffs, Brown played 20 games last season and fell short of this number 14 times (70%). He finished with exactly five receptions in five different weeks, despite seeing the eighth-most targets at the position last year (146). Brown finished Week 1 with seven receptions on 10 targets, the exact same totals as teammate DeVonta Smith. However, that was a game where tight end Dallas Goedert saw just one target and totaled zero receptions.
That should change Thursday might.
Using our FTN Splits Tool, we can see that a big game for Goedert has a negative correlation to Brown’s production. In games where Goedert has posted four or more receptions, Brown’s reception total has fallen by over 12%.
In last year’s matchup with the Vikings, Goedert led all Eagles pass-catchers with 82 receiving yards on six targets. Brown finished with five receptions on eight targets.
We project Brown for just 4.0 receptions on our FTN NFL Player Projections Model. I’m going with the historical data and backing the under on Brown’s 5.5 reception total.
