NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Raiders are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to garner 11.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has been an integral part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 30.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has accumulated a whopping 122.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
- Davante Adams has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, catching a mere 59.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 14th percentile among wideouts
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 9th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards
98
Receiving Yards
