Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year.I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Jacksonville Jaguars. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Results
Record: 9-8, 1st in the AFC South
Season End: Lost 27-20 at the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round
Jacksonville Jaguars Offseason Summary
Draft
1.27: Anton Harrison, T, Oklahoma
2.61: Brenton Strange, TE, Penn St.
3.88: Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn
4.121: Ventrell Miller, LB, Florida
4.130: Tyler Lacy, DE, Oklahoma St.
5.136: Yasir Abdullah, OLB, Louisville
5.160: Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M
6.185: Parker Washington, WR, Penn St.
6.202: Christian Braswell, CB, Rutgers
6.208: Erick Hallett, DB, Pittsburgh
7.226: Cooper Hodges, G, Appalachian St.
7.227: Raymond Vohasek, DT, North Carolina
7.240: Derek Parish, EDGE, Houston
Anton Harrison, T (1.27)
As a 2017 second-rounder, left tackle Cam Robinson is one of the longest-tenured Jaguars. But even as he’s earned a franchise tag and his current three-year contract, the veteran has fallen consistently short of standout pass protection. He has blown a below average 3.4% to 5.2% of his pass blocks in five of his six professional seasons. Harrison lacks the elite athleticism that many of the best left tackles lean on in the run game. But the rookie has great footwork and body control to mask his limitations in pass protection. And if he can learn to deal with the speediest of NFL edge rushers, he will likely inherit Robinson’s starting job in 2024 or 2025.
Brenton Strange, TE (2.61)
Head coach Doug Pederson drafted a second tight end in the second round in Dallas Goedert when he coached the Eagles in 2018, and the Strange pick seems to target that mix-and-match flexibility at the position. Next to Evan Engram and his 4.42-second speed, Strange skews more toward the run-blocking end of the tight end spectrum. But the rookie teased the athleticism to contribute as a receiver with his 6.92- and 4.23-second three-cone and short shuttle drills even if he never had the chance to fully showcase it in a crowded Penn State receiver room.
Tank Bigsby, RB (3.88)
It’s easy to read the name “Tank” and assume Doug Pederson made a similar complementary play at running back as he did at tight end with Evan Engram and rookie Brenton Strange. Incumbent Travis Etienne is elusive and versatile as a receiver but a bit undersized at 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds (30.1 BMI). A tank might help the Jaguars punctuate their red zone drives with touchdowns, something Etienne failed to do in 2022 when he scored 5.24 fewer touchdowns than expected by his attempt locations, the second biggest shortfall at the position. But Bigsby is actually a bit smaller than Etienne (6-foot-0/210/28.5) and earned his Day 2 draft consideration with a jump-cutting proficiency that evokes another Eagles standout, LeSean McCoy. Etienne and Bigsby could pair to be the most difficult running back tandem to catch and tackle in space.
Additions
Free agent signings: K Brandon McManus, RB D’Ernest Johnson, T Josh Wells, G Chandler Brewer, DT Michael Dogbe, DT Henry Mondeaux, WR Jacob Harris
D’Ernest Johnson, RB
The Jaguars made twice as many draft picks this offseason as they did free agent acquisitions. That paints a picture of a team building on a timeline to suit its 23-year-old franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. But the team may have uncovered a few inexpensive free agent gems, as well. Johnson never had an extended starter look behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in Cleveland. But Johnson also has a 27.7% broken tackle rate since 2020 that is the highest among backs with 100 or more carries. He would likely see that rate fall with a starter’s workload. But he is an excellent sleeper play at just $1.2 million, hardly any of which is guaranteed.
Josh Wells, T
Wells landed the $1.3 million free agency deal of a likely backup, and he seems unlikely to start behind former second-round right tackle Walker Little. But Wells is massive at 6-foot-6 and 306 pounds and has parlayed that build into an excellent 1.0% blown run block rate in his career even as his pass blocking has suffered. Wells should be a useful part-time player.
Departures
T Jawaan Taylor, EDGE Arden Key, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaquill Griffin, WR Marvin Jones, RB Darrell Henderson, DT Corey Peters, TE Dan Arnold, WR Willie Johnson, K Riley Patterson
Taylor was the bright spot of a bottom-four Jaguars offensive line in both pass and run block win rate in 2022, and he translated his team-leading 1.2% blown block rate into an $80 million Chiefs contract. The Jaguars cannot be thrilled to lose their best lineman. But they do have a plan of succession in former second-right pick Walker Little.
Arden Key, EDGE
Key has never produced gaudy sack numbers. In fact, his 4.5 sacks for the Jaguars in 2022 were just two shy of a career high. But Key has been consistently disrupted in his career with 30 or more pass pressures in his three healthy seasons. The Jaguars have incumbent pass-rushing talent, most notably in former No. 1 draft pick Travon Walker. But the team could miss Key — and lament facing him on the rival Titans — more than many expect.
Marvin Jones, WR
Jones was one of a small handful of capable veterans who helped Trevor Lawrence avoid outright catastrophe in his rookie 2021 season with Urban Meyer at the helm. But as the veteran receiver has entered his 30s, he’s slipped from peak standard of more than 4.0 average yards after the catch to 2.7 YAC in 2020 and 2.0 YAC in 2021 and 2022, combined. Assuming they can keep Calvin Ridley on the field, then the Jaguars can afford to let Jones leave.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Indianapolis Colts (Jaguars –3.5)
Week 2 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 3 – Houston Texans
Week 4 – Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 – Buffalo Bills
Week 6 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 7 – @ New Orleans Saints
Week 8 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 9 – Bye
Week 10 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 11 – Tennessee Titans
Week 12 – @ Houston Texans
Week 13 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 14 – @ Cleveland Browns
Week 15 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 16 – @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 17 – Carolina Panthers
Week 18 – @ Tennessee Titans
2023 Future Odds
FanDuel: Wins Over/Under (-144/+118)
DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM: To Win AFC South (-155)
After a 2-6 start to the 2022 season, the Jaguars recouped and turned a corner following their bye, winning six of their last seven games. They finished with a 9-8 record, winning the AFC South for only the second time in franchise history. Jacksonville’s grit and determination carried into the postseason, mounting the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history. They nearly made it into the AFC Conference Championship, falling 27-20 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. There are high expectations for the Jaguars who are significant favorites to win their division again in 2023, with a win total set at 9.5. Despite playing a first-place schedule next season, their opponents combined for a .477 win percentage in 2022, 10th lowest among all 32 teams. I like Jacksonville to win double-digit games in year two with Doug Pederson and repeat as champions of the AFC South.
Best Bets
FanDuel: Trevor Lawrence Over 4,025.5 Passing Yards (-112)
FanDuel: Trevor Lawrence Over 25.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
After a disappointing rookie campaign, 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence lived up to his draft day billing in his second season, finally playing with a competent head coach in Doug Pederson. He made significant improvements across the board in year two, increasing his completion rate from 59.6% to 66.3%, while cutting down his turnover-worthy pass percentage from 6.3% to 4.1%. He was one of only nine players to throw over 4,000 yards last season (4,114) and finished tied for eighth in passing touchdowns (25). Lawrence showed all the makings of a franchise quarterback, leading his team to a 6-1 record down the stretch and into the playoffs. Entering his second season in the Pederson system, I think Lawrence can be even better, surpassing his 4,025-yardage prop, and throwing for 25 touchdowns. He’ll also have much better weapons at his disposal next season, essentially swapping out Marvin Jones for Calvin Ridley.
FanDuel: Calvin Ridley Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Calvin Ridley is set to make his debut in Jasonville after missing all of 2022 with a suspension. Based on early reports during training camp, Ridley hasn’t lost a step, already displaying strong chemistry with his new quarterback. Ridley played just five games in his last season with the Falcons, struggling with injuries and mental health. However, he still averaged 52.6 receiving yards per game, on pace for 955.4 receiving yards in a 17-game season. The last time Ridley played more than five games was in 2020 when he caught 143 for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns in 15 games. At 28 years old, entering his fifth season, I believe Ridley still has enough juice to go 875 receiving yards in 2023.
