NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
After a fun weekend in Nashville, the UFC heads home to host an electric matchup between two Brazilian Gladiators. Rafael Dos Anjos and Vicente Luque are veterans of the UFC, and their body of work and fight style will forever be remembered by fans worldwide and in Brazil.
The co-main event features two veterans also, except one has been with the UFC for over 10 years, and the other is in his fifth year with the promotion. Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu are both exciting fighters. Still, Cub is nearly 40 years old and in a competitive and young division that requires you to have the durability to match the speed and reflexes needed for success. There are six fights on the main card and 13 fights overall. Another weekend full of violence is on the menu, and below I’ll be breaking down the main card from a betting perspective. All odds and bets mentioned below will be on the BetMGM sportsbook app.
Luque vs. Dos Anjos Odds
Vicente Luque +110, Rafael Dos Anjos -120
When you think of the term Gladiators, a picture of Rafael Dos Anjos and Vicente Luque should come to mind. Both men have been fighting at the highest level for over a decade. Luque is 21-9-1, with 19 of those wins coming through stoppage. 52% (11)of his wins are by knockout, 38% (8)by submission and only 10% (2) by decision. Luque is coming off his second back-to-back loss in his career. He’s also returning from an injury suspension due to a brain bleed. Luque is a warrior, and his overall body of work makes him a fan favorite every time he’s in the Octagon. So while his injury could be a concern, I fully expect him to be dangerous in this fight. For one, Luque has a height (3in.) and reach (6in) advantage. He is also the better striker of the two. Luque Averages 5.49 significant strikes landed per minute and is accurate on 52% of strikes thrown, and while he doesn’t attempt many takedowns, he lands 50% of takedowns attempted. The problem is Luque absorbs just about the same amount of volume that he dishes out. Luque’s style has always been built around his durability, but coming off a serious brain injury, that same durability could’ve just become his new liability.
Rafael Dos Anjos has been fighting in the UFC since 2008. He is 32-14-0 and 3-2 in his last five. With over eight hours of cage time, no one in the UFC, regardless of weight class, has fought more than RDA. At 38 years old, RDA is making perhaps his last run toward a title shot, and this time he’s doing it at welterweight. After a two-year layoff, RDA returned in a catchweight bout against Renato Moicano. He displayed dominance and won the fight unanimously on the scorecards. Still, if that fight went on any longer, Moicano may have gotten the best of RDA. He would return to the lightweight division to fight Fiziev, and after that loss, he shot back up to 170 and finished Bryan Barbarena. Before that stoppage, Barbarena hadn’t been stopped in three years.
RDA displayed a master class on the ground and fast, powerful strikes, eventually leading to a rear-naked choke finish. RDA doesn’t average a high volume of significant strikes, but he makes them count and possesses the power to finish an opponent by knockout. RDA has a clear path to victory in this fight if he can get this to the ground. Luque showed in his battle against Belal Muhammad a hole in his ground game. He wasn’t able to explode off his back, and while he does have submission wins and takedowns in his career, Luque is, at best, a purple belt on the ground. RDA has 11 wins by submission and 16 wins by decision. RDA proved tricky in his old age against Moicano.
Luque carries the same type of power, and for him to win, he’ll have to keep this fight standing and hope that his durability is back to his standard. I’m going to side with RDA in this spot for two reasons. One, Luque is coming off a severe brain injury that may come back to haunt him if he absorbs a lot of damage. Secondly, Luque may be able to stop the first takedown, but he won’t be able to stop them all. While he may not get subbed, he will have a tough time getting out from under the pressure of RDA.
Bet: Rafael Dos Anjos ML -120
Swanson vs. Dawodu Odds
Cub Swanson +183, Hakeem Dawodu -225
The co-main event features a young up-and-comer, “Mean” Hakeem Dawodu, and the old veteran playing the role of gatekeeper, Cub Swanson. Dawodu has been on a main card, but this will mark his first time being the co-main event. Swanson is currently in his 13th year with the promotion, and this could be his final lap as he approaches 40 years old. This matchup is suitable as a co-main bout, as both fighters’ styles make for an action-packed affair.
The numbers in striking output are slightly in favor of Dawodu. He also has a three-inch reach advantage and connects on 50% of significant strikes. Everything that Dawodu throws is with fight-ending intention. He doesn’t attempt any takedowns and defends 65% of any takedowns coming his way. Swanson averages one takedown attempt per 15 minutes, but like Hakeem, Cub Swanson is no stranger to a stand-up fight and, at times, can get caught falling in love with the brawl and paying for it. It’s important to note that, win or lose, Swanson hasn’t been to a decision since 2019, and Dawodu has only finished one fight in six wins in the UFC.
From a betting perspective, this fight is a coin flip because of how closely matched they are and the styles they fight with. Still, if you look at the body of work for both fighters, you can argue that Cubs’ last five fights have been against some over-the-hill fighters. And in the fights he lost, he looked awful and was finished early. If Cub’s durability holds up, this could be a close fight, and he could end up with a split-decision win. Three out of the six wins for Dawodu have come by split decision. So while he has been successful, he hasn’t been dominant enough to find finishes consistently. If there is a finish in this fight, I expect it to be late in the third round. Both fighters average over 10 minutes of fight time, so for me I’ll go with the over 2.5 round prop and also for Hakeem to win in round three or by decision.
Bet: Dawodu/Swanson o2.5 Rds -115
Daukaus vs. Rountree Jr. Odds
Chris Daukaus +145, Khalil Rountree Jr. -170
Welcoming Chris Daukaus to the Light Heavyweight division is dangerous striker Khalil Rountree Jr. Daukaus is currently on a three-fight losing streak. Each of those losses has come by knockout and inside of two rounds. Daukaus, despite his recent struggles, went into the UFC on a tear in 2020. He finished his first four fights in two rounds, landing him a main event spot against the black beast Derrick Lewis. Daukaus would lose in the first round and began the losing streak that sent him down to Light Heavyweight. In this new division, his power will transfer well, but the speed advantage that he took into the heavyweight division will no longer be an asset anymore, and this fight against Rountree will expose that. If anything, this feels like the fight that gets Daukaus cut from the UFC.
Rountree is currently on a three-fight win streak, with two out of the three fights ending in the second round. His last fight was against Dustin Jacoby. And while he won by split decision, it showed vast improvement in his game and showed why he could beat Daukaus. Neither of these guys attempts many takedowns, and both have less than 10 minutes of fight time. Daukaus had less than a single round of fight time. While I do expect him to start the fight out more reserved this time, I also expect Rountree to be aggressive and look to test the durability of Daukaus. The pick is Rountree Jr. to finish Daukaus inside the distance and keep the judges out of it.
Bet: Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO or Sub -150 | Rountree Jr. in Round 1 +150
Dobson vs. Nchukwi Odds
AJ Dobson +120, Tafon Nchukwi -143
Tafon Nchukwi welcomes a UFC newcomer to his third professional bout. AJ Dobson entered the UFC on The Contender Series in 2021. He emphatically beat his opponent and impressed Dana White with a Round 1 submission victory. Dobson is currently experiencing his first losing streak as a professional. His two losses came to Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan. Against Malkoun, Dobson was outwrestled and beaten up by getting exposed on the ground. It was surprising, considering that leading up to the UFC, Dobsons’ plan of attack always included wrestling – he even averaged 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes. Nchukwi is currently on a two-fight losing streak himself. The difference is that Tafon has been finished brutally in his losses while Dobson lost by decisions.
Like Dobson, Nchukwi hasn’t been in the UFC very long, but he has more time in the Octagon, and therefore, he’s the experienced vet between the two fighters. Still, Nchukwi hasn’t looked good in his last two fights, and leaving the weekend with a win is the top priority or he could be looking for a job elsewhere. Nchukwi is powerful, strong and capable of grappling when he has enough juice in the gas tank. Nchukwi averages six significant strikes landed per minute and connects on 52% of strikes, making him very accurate. His issue lies in his overly patient approach.
The longer his fights go, the less output he produces and the better chance his opponents have of finding a finish or winning after surviving the first-round onslaught from Nchukwi. Similar to Dobson, Nchukwi, before entering the UFC, was finishing all of his opponents inside two rounds. His only finish under the UFC lights came in his Contender series bout. Since then, he has beaten Mike Rodriguez in his debut and then suffered back-to-back losses by knockout. In his loss to Azamat Murzakanov, he looked competitive until his gas tank got the better of him in the third round, and Azamat was able to find a finish. Against Carlos Ulberg in his most recent fight, Nchukwi was just beaten to the punch and finished in the very first round.
So along with his overly patient approach, Nchukwi has shown a durability issue. In my opinion, Nchukwi doesn’t belong in the Light Heavyweight division, and he fights there because of a tough weight cut that would leave him strung out before fights. The price he has to pay comes in the form of taking damage from much bigger opponents. While Tafon is strong, he’s an undersized LHW, which could mean a short career if he keeps getting finished.
This fight determines a lot for the future of Dobson and Nchukwi. Both can be cut with a loss, and both can sign a new contract if they win impressively. For me, I see the value in the underdog, and I’m going to side with Dobson. He may still be green, but he’s fast, accurate and as strong as Nchukwi. He has never been knocked out and doesn’t have to worry about Nchukwi wanting to wrestle. Dobson also doesn’t have durability issues like Nchukwi, so when they mix it up, the dust settles, and I’m confident Dobson will be the last man standing.
Bet: AJ Dobson ML +120 | Dobson by KO/TKO or Sub +200
Fremd vs. Pickett Odds
Josh Fremd -350, Jamie Pickett +275
Kicking off the main card is two middleweights looking to fight their way into a new contract. Josh Fremd came into the UFC in 2022. He made his debut on short notice against Anthony Hernandez. His gas tank and nerves got the best of him, though, as he was beaten pillar to post and lost 30-27 on the cards unanimously. His second fight featured Tresean Gore, and while Fremd began the fight better than his debut, he was caught in a guillotine in Round 2 after a lazy takedown attempt. His third and most recent fight matched him against UFC debutant Sedriques Dumas.
Dumas is a famed Florida street fighter who entered the UFC via The Contender Series. Fremd resorted to his wrestling background and hunted the takedowns and submissions until he was successful in Round 2. He took advantage of the lack of ground game from Dumas. Fremd is tall for a middleweight, at 6-foot-4 with a 76-inch reach. He utilizes his size well and has decent striking. He has four wins by knockout on his record, indicating power, but in all of the tapes I’ve watched, he was most successful when he wrestled his way to victory.
Jamie Pickett has the same build in terms of height and reach, and he’s also on the brink of being cut from the UFC if he can’t end up in the win column. Pickett entered the UFC through The Contender Series after two quick losses in his official debut and second fight. Pickett bounced back with two impressive wins over Joseph Holmes and Laureno Staropoli. Since then, he has lost three fights to Kyle Daukaus, Denis Tiuliulin and Bo Nickal. Pickett has power, size and is also capable of landing a takedown. His problem for me is that he isn’t a specialist in any area, and it was a significant hole in his game when he matched up against other specialists.
In the battle for the new contract, I will side with Fremd and say that he leans on his wrestling to grind Pickett out. The numbers are close in striking output and takedown attempts, and where it will make a difference in the fight is in the amount of damage Pickett absorbs and the number of submissions Fremd attempts on the ground. If anything was learned from Pickett’s last fight, he was susceptible to wrestling and submission threats. Fremd will do it by submission or on the scorecards unanimously because of his wrestling. Book it.
Bet: Josh Fremd by Sub or Dec. +100 | Fremd by KO/TKO or Sub -135
