5 NFL Player Props to Bet for 2023

The 2023 NFL regular season is coming. We already have a ton of NFL futures available for every NFL team, with more becoming available as the summer progresses. Here are my first five season-long prop bets, using our FTN Prop Shop to find the best lines for each bet.

To see all my bets for the upcoming NFL season, please check out our FTN Bet Tracker.

(All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.)

2023 NFL Season-Long Props

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs 

Over/Under 36.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

I always prefer betting unders in season-long props because of the myriad options that could limit a player’s seasonal upside. Coming off a second Super Bowl championship, I am fading the high touchdown prowess of Patrick Mahomes. 

This number falls below Mahomes’ touchdown totals for each of the past three seasons, and 4.5 touchdowns short of last year’s campaign (41). The health and continued production of tight end Travis Kelce is critical to Mahomes, who has yet to build a connection with a wideout since the departure of Tyreek Hill. This year, Kansas City has even less experience at the wide receiver position, and Kelce will turn 34 years old. The Chiefs have the fifth-hardest schedule per opposing Vegas win totals, and the AFC West should be much improved with a healthy Chargers team and a Denver resurgence. While the public will likely back this low number, I’m grabbing the contrarian opportunity on DraftKings. 

The Pick

Mahomes Under 36.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under 29.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

I am very high on Justin Herbert and the Chargers. 

They have been riddled with injuries the past four years but still managed to improve their win total in four straight seasons. The Chargers offense struggled last season under former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. A less explosive weekly game plan coupled with a substantial injury to reliable wide receiver Keenan Allen, equated to just 25 passing touchdowns and a career-low 6.8 yards per pass attempt. However, new OC Kellen Moore has already drawn rave reviews and only needs to improve last year’s total by five additional touchdown passes. I expect Los Angeles’ offense to return closer to their 27.9 PPG average from 2021, meaning a much better season from their franchise quarterback. 

The Pick

Herbert Over 29.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under 575.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Let’s double down on my belief in the Chargers passing attack. Los Angeles will certainly see an increase in passing attempts under Moore, who fell out of favor with a Dallas coaching staff that preferred to run the ball. Quentin Johnston was the team’s first overall pick in the draft and will be fed opportunities by an offensive coordinator that clearly plans to leverage his explosive athleticism. He has elite burst and a massive catch radius, measuring at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds. Keenan Allen is 31 years old and Mike Williams remains an inconsistent enigma. Last year, Williams, Joshua Palmer, Allen and Austin Ekeler all crested this number, while tight Gerald Everett (555 receiving yards) and journeyman DeAndre Carter (538) fell just short. I believe in Johnson’s ability, especially in this offense. 

The Pick

Johnston Over 575.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Over/Under 950 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is not the coaching staff that drafted Travis Etienne. So after an 1,125 rushing-yard campaign that was eighth among all running backs, what did Jacksonville do? Drafted a running back in the third round of this year’s NFL draft. 

Etienne’s weekly rushing total was greatly affected by breakaway runs, which are hard to replicate. He had three straight weeks with a run of 48 yards or more and a 62-yard run in Week 17 at Houston. The addition of rookie Tank Bigsby brings a huge obstacle into Etienne’s projection. Bigsby is 210 pounds and already impressed the Jaguars at minicamp. Head coach Doug Pederson has a clear preference for a committee backfield, making Etienne’s 2022 rushing season a possible anomaly. 

The Pick

Etienne Under 950 Rushing Yards (-110)

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under 1,050.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

I just don’t believe the Dallas coaching staff will trust Tony Pollard to assume the RB1 rushing work for a full season. Pollard never ranked higher than third in carries throughout his entire college career at Memphis. He finished his college career with just 139 rushing attempts and featured more as a wide receiver than running back. 

While Pollard has been incredibly efficient with Dallas, he still maintained only a 50% snap share last season. Ezekiel Elliott’s 231 carries from last year are now available, but I still believe the Cowboys will add another running back prior to the start of the season. If Pollard rushed for 1,007 yards last year, with a minimal workload, or a team that now wants to run more, why is this prop only 1,050.5 yards and juiced to the under? 

The running back depth chart of Malik Davis and rookie Deuce Vaughn certainly doesn’t provide much competition, but I have serious doubts about Tony Pollard as a leading NFL running back. Whether it’s by additional competition or injury, I don’t think he exceeds this total. 

The Pick

Pollard Under 1,050.5 Rushing Yards (-120)