Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
Padres -135 @ Giants +115 — Total 8.5 (BetMGM)
Gabe Kapler’s Giants have won 10 in a row and look to finish off a four-game sweep against their division rival Thursday afternoon. One thing the Padres have going for them is they have their hottest pitcher on the mound in Blake Snell. I’m going to keep this brief as this number is on the move, but we’re headed back to the strikeout market here.
Much like last season, Snell got off to a slow start, but he’s found his form over his last five games. For the season, the lefty has a 29.2% K%— 1.1% higher than his career mark and about 3% lower than where he finished last season. However, over his last five starts, Snell has posted a 38.8% K%, 0.60 ERA and 2.20 FIP – across 30 innings. Over that period, Snell’s 15.7% swinging-strike percentage is about two percent higher than both his career and season mark. The southpaw’s K% ranks fifth in baseball, while his swinging-strike percentage is the sixth-best in the game. Snell’s two best strikeout pitches are his curveball and slider, and he throws the two pitches about 30% of the time combined. The lefty’s curve has a 65.5% K% and 56% whiff%, and his slider carries a 39.5% and 52.2% whiff%. Those are two offerings the Giants have had trouble making contact with this season. Overall the southpaws whiff% ranks in the 89th percentile and his strikeout percentage sits in the 84th percentile.
San Francisco’s 25.7% K% against left-handed pitching this season ranks fifth in MLB in 2023. Their 9.59 punchouts per game is the third highest, behind only Seattle and Minnesota (two other squads we’ve been targeting in the K market this season). I mentioned the Giants’ struggles against curveballs and sliders this season – their 32.7% K% against sliders ranks third in the show. Their strikeout percentage against curveballs this year is 31.9% – eighth highest.
I’m projecting Blake Snell to pitch about six innings Thursday afternoon and K the seven Giants we need to cash. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects Snell for 7.17 punchouts. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet
Blake Snell Over 6.5 K’s (-130, BetMGM)
