Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The work week comes to a close with nine action-packed games on Friday’s NBA DFS slate and arguably the best birthday narrative DFSers could’ve asked for with Nikola Jokic turning 26.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t mean, however, that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic
GS -4.5, total: 225.5
The Magic are still incredibly banged up, as Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon remain sidelined, while Evan Fournier has been upgraded to probable. Even with his expected return, Nikola Vucevic should soak up a massive amount of usage and is a surefire bet for 45 DK points, but given the size of the slate, he’s not a necessity.
Michael Carter-Williams should still see a ton of playing time with Fournier back at $5,100 in a pace-up spot. Without the three players that have already been ruled out, Carter-Williams has a 26.9% usage rate, so there’s certainly an upside there. While Fournier’s sits at 24.2% in the same situation while he sees a nice spike in assist rate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these two essentially swap usage rates as games go on. Regardless, both are cheap enough to warrant consideration in a pace-up spot with a close spread.
For the Warriors, Draymond Green is expected back. He’s seen an assist rate flirting with 40% over the last two weeks since sliding down to the center position. If he’s active, this team is pretty easy; target Green and Stephen Curry at their respective prices and have confidence that they’ll anchor your lineups. If Green is a surprise inactive, however, we have to figure out what value plays become viable. Based on the last game that Green sat, Kent Bazemore looks like the best bet, as he saw 38 minutes and 19 shot attempts. While the volume is a bit of an outlier, the minutes at near-minimum price are extremely enticing. Eric Paschall also saw over 30 minutes, but I much prefer Bazemore for cheaper.
This would obviously be an incremental bump to both Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre, but given the fact that Green has only attempted 5.4 field goals per game, it’s too incremental to vault one into must-play territory.
Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
DEN -8, total: 221
Denver is another shorthanded team, as Gary Harris, PJ Dozier and Paul Millsap have all been ruled out, while there is still a chance that Will Barton misses another game while dealing with a personal matter.
With all the injuries on the wing, we should continue to see an uptick in playing time and production for Monte Morris, Michael Porter and Facundo Campazzo. Campazzo was still able to log 25 minutes of action in Morris’ return last game (where Morris only saw 19), but this is a situation where it would make sense to see those minutes flip. Regardless, at $4,200, there’s merit to Campazzo as long as the wings remain out. If we get confirmation that Morris will be in line for his traditional workload, he becomes a strong value play at under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Porter has been one of the most volatile players in the league this season and while he certainly has 40- to 50-point fantasy upside, he also has 10-15-point downside. JaMychal Green should split Millsap’s minutes with Porter and while also volatile, his price is much more reasonable.
At his price, he’s best reserved for tournaments. If you want exposure to the Nuggets offense in the starting lineup, it makes sense to limit it to Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. Murray has been playing out of his mind as of late, posting a 30.3% usage rate, 21.9% assist rate, and 1.30 DKP/min over the last week. Jokic, meanwhile, has also posted a 30.3% usage rate over the same span with a 37.6% assist rate and 1.63 DKP/min. For the narrative seekers, he’s also celebrating his birthday Friday. While the narrative doesn’t make him an elite play, his production on the court sure does.
The Cavs are a team that I have very little interest in, even against a rather beatable Denver defense. If I choose to stack this game, however, I’ll target both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Sexton has been a virtual lock for 20-plus points on a nightly basis and now takes on a team that’s allowing a 70.3% field-goal percentage in the restricted area (worst in the NBA), which caters to a slasher like Sexton. Garland, on the other hand, is simply too cheap at $5,400 on FanDuel given his 40-FanDuel-point upside. You can also make a case for Jarrett Allen given the Nuggets’ struggles around the basket, but a matchup with Nikola Jokic isn’t one I choose to pick on frequently.
With Taurean Prince ruled out, I’ll go right back to the value well with Cedi Osman, especially after a 17-point, 10-rebound double-double in a spot-start for Prince in his last game against Brooklyn. Assuming he gets 30+ minutes, he’s far too cheap at $4,800 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel (specifically on FanDuel).
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -9, total: 229.5
The Sixers should get Ben Simmons back, leaving Shake Milton as the only likely absence for Philly. With that in mind, it’s easy to focus on the big three on this team, with Joel Embiid as the centerpiece after finishing one assist shy of a triple-double last game and stepping into a smash spot Friday. He makes for one of the top overall options on the slate.
Ben Simmons is a sneak 1B to Embiid’s 1A Friday, as Chicago runs at one of the fastest paces in the NBA while Simmons transition frequency rate is sitting around 30%, one of the highest marks in the NBA. He should come in with virtually zero ownership and I prefer him to Tobias Harris at $7,900. With that said, Harris is still viable given his offensive upside.
If looking outside of the big three, Seth Curry is where I’d go. He remains cheap at under $5,000 having posted 35-plus fantasy points in three consecutive games now that he seems to have recovered 100% from his COVID-19 absence.
This is not a spot to target the Bulls. Zach LaVine makes for a fine runback option but at over $9,000, it’s really hard to stomach given the fact that he’s going to deal with a ton of Simmons on the defensive end. Outside of LaVine, nobody on the Bulls is reliable enough to trust against one of the best defensive units in the NBA.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -3.5, total: 226.5
Trae Young remains too cheap at $9,500 on DraftKings, especially after a 40-point outburst and now against a team that struggles to defend shooters off screens and off of handoffs, giving off the second-most points per game and the most points per possession (1.1).
It’s where to go after Young that gets a bit trickier, as both John Collins and Clint Capela are way too cheap, especially Capela at $7,200. He’s a sure-fire bet for a double-double and has 20-20 upside, while Collins, for the most part, this season, has been a reliable bet for 30-plus fantasy points. Danilo Gallinari is a somewhat viable value play at under $5,000 on FanDuel given the fact that he should see 30-35 minutes and is a high-volume player, but I prefer someone like Cedi Osman for a cheaper tag.
For the Celtics, we should expect Kemba Walker back in the lineup, while Jaylen Brown is listed as questionable. With both Brown and Marcus Smart out this season, Walker has seen a usage rate over 34% on the season and over 1.15 DKP/min, so there the play is certainly merited against Young defense if Brown is out. This would also make Jayson Tatum close to a lock-button paly at $8,800, as he’s already one of the best options on the slate even if Brown were to play.
If Brown plays, he’s also a viable piece at under $8,000, as he’s taking over 20 shots per game. You can also get away with the value in Daniel Theis at under $5,000 assuming he isn’t on a minutes limit given his positional flexibility on DraftKings. Semi Ojeleye would also be a viable value if Brown is out, as he’s been a good bet for at least 28 minutes and would likely soak up some of the 20-plus shots that would be vacated if Brown is out.
Detroit Pistons @ Memphis Grizzlies
MEM -5, total: 222
As long as Delon Wright’s price refuses to move, I’ll continue to buy in. He only logged 28 DK points last game, but if we’re considering this a floor in his current role, there’s no reason not to at only $6,100 in a marquee matchup against Ja Morant.
Jerami Grant also feels too cheap at only $7,500 after a 43-point game going 15-of-25 from the field. He also had a down-game in terms of peripheral production last game, so seeing them normalize would only heighten his ceiling on Friday. Mason Plumlee is a polarizing play at $6,800. There’s legitimate triple-double upside here, but there’s also sub-20-DK-point downside. He makes for an elite tournament play in a game where they’ll need his size to combat Jonas Valanciunas, but he’s someone I would stray away from in cash games.
On the Memphis side, it’s easy to like Valanciunas at $7,100 in a smash spot against a Detroit team that ranks 28th against rebounders and in the bottom half of the league against scorers and skilled centers, per advanced DvP. As long as he gets his minutes, the production will be there. Ja Morant is also cheap and while his production has been impressive and his minutes are on the rise, he’s still been a bit more volatile than we’re used to over his last 10 games. Because of this, I would still reserve him for tournaments and not cash games.
With Dillon Brooks and De'Anthony Melton potentially out, both Grayson Allen and Desmond Bane should pick up extra playing time and shots. Of the two, Bane is a better point-per-dollar target, as he’s $1,100 cheaper and already seeing 25-26 minutes per game, which is only a few less than Dillon Brooks. Kyle Anderson at $6,400 induces some sticker shock, but it’s hard to shy away, especially if Brooks sits, given how well he’s been playing as of late. He could very-well be the least-popular player on this team on Friday, making him a great tournament target.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -11, total: 233
Khris Middleton (and the Bucks in general) have been wildly underwhelming over their five-game losing streak, but his $7,600 price tag is still an enticing price with Jrue Holiday out given his overall body of work on the season. Because of the volatility and recent form, however, he’s better left alone in cash games. If you want Bucks’ exposure, you’re best to ride with Giannis Antetokounmpo given his recent form and the number of minutes he’s been playing. If there’s a benefit of the Bucks playing poorly and failing to blow teams out, it’s getting a consistent 35-plus minutes out of Giannis. At under $11,000, he’s one of the top overall plays on the slate.
Bryn Forbes and Bobby Portis should continue to provide some value if you’re looking to save, as Forbes continues to start for the absent Holiday and Portis could benefit from the potential game script if Vegas is correct with their 11-point spread.
For the Thunder, I’m OK targeting them against the Bucks, but they don’t provide the screaming value that they have over the last few weeks with their rotation finally coming together. Because of that, I’m likely to gravitate toward the sure things on this team in Al Horford, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Hamidou Diallo. All three are viable, with SGA being my top option, as he’s posted a 27.9% usage rate, 32.3% assist rate, and 1.21 DKP/min this season. He should also benefit in terms of individual matchup, assuming Jrue Holiday misses this game.
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans
PHX -3, total: 231
Steven Adams is listed as questionable for this game, and while Jaxson Hayes could be counted on to draw a start, it’s entirely possible that we see Guillermo Hernangomez draw the start, or at least soak up the majority of the minutes at the center position. He’s likely to be a popular play based on his recent form (11 points and 17 rebounds in his last game), but he’s averaged 1.07 DKP/min and has a 20.7% rebounding rate with Adams off of the floor, so this would be good chalk to eat.
The potential absence of Adams would also do wonders for Zion Williamson’s rebounding potential, as his peripherals are finally starting to come around. His shooting remains incredibly efficient and while Phoenix is a tough matchup, there’s still a ton of upside at $8,400 given his recent play. Brandon Ingram at $8,000 is a fine pivot, but because I don’t target Phoenix defense, I likely won’t get to both, leaving Williamson as my preference.
The Suns are also not a team I never really go out of my way to roster in DFS because of the distribution of usage, but Deandre Ayton at $6,900 would see a nice boost with Adams out, as New Orleans has been one of the best teams in the NBA in defending at the rim.
Chris Paul at $7,700 is always a stable floor play in cash games and Devin Booker’s recent form has been exceptional, but neither are priorities on this slate. The only other Suns’ player that I have interest in is Jae Crowder, as he’s posted 30-plus fantasy points in three of the last four games and is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
TOR -3.5, total: 232
The status of Kyle Lowry remains up in the air Friday, as he missed the game Thursday with a plethora of injuries. This leads to an expanded opportunity for Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell, all of which feel far too cheap. With Lowry out this season, VanVleet sees a 27.1% usage rate with a 31.6% assist rate, while both Powell and Siakam have usage rates over 23%, making all three viable plays. In terms of priority, my preference would go Powell, VanVleet, then Siakam.
On the Timberwolves’ side of the game, Karl-Anthony Towns continues to come into slates far too cheap, as he’s only $9,200 on DraftKings on Friday. While his production has been rather volatile since his return from COVID, he’s coming off of his best game over that stretch and has averaged 1.33 DKP/min with D'Angelo Russell out this season.
Both Anthony Edwards (27.1% usage rate sans Russell) and Malik Beasley (26.7% usage rate, 1.07 DKP/min sans Russell) are viable secondary pieces that should come in at lower ownership for Minnesota, making them great options to fill into your lineup around you studs and value plays.
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Clippers
UTA -3.5, total: 224.5
The last game of the slate presents arguably the most ambiguity, as both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are questionable for the Clippers, as both would potentially be coming off of multi-game absences. If one of them sits, the other becomes an elite play (assuming they are a full-go). With salaries factored in, George at $8,600 would be a stronger play if Leonard sits than Leonard would be at $9,700 if George were to sit.
If both sit out, there’s reason to like Lou Williams, who has a team-high 30.3% usage rate without them this season, as well as Marcus Morris, who has a 26% usage rate without them this season. The matchup, however, dissuades them from being cash-game staples and puts them more in the single-entry tournament realm.
For the Jazz, it’s hard to argue with the prices on both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, especially if Mike Conley remains out. Gobert is one of the safest plays at his price on the slate, while Mitchell sees an astronomical uptick in usage and touches with Conley out, as he slides over to point guard.
Conley’s absence would also keep Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles in the conversation. Clarkson, over the last two weeks, has posted a 29% usage rate and 1.09 DKP/min without Conley, while Ingles has posted a 26.4% assist rate and 1.04 DKP/min. Both are incredibly strong mid-tier options if Conley sits out.
