Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Another week has rolled around, and we’re still missing key players in fantasy football, especially quarterbacks. The Thursday night game was already a mess with injuries, and it’s not going to get a whole lot better for the weekend.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota injury woes continue, as Alexander Mattison will miss Week 15. That means Ty Chandler should be in line for just about all of the work out of the backfield, but how that works out for fantasy is much more nebulous. Over the past four games, Chandler touched the ball at least 14 times in three games. He has only exceeded 10.5 fantasy points once in the last month so the ceiling might be in question, but some teams are hard up for running backs so a start against the Bengals still makes plenty of sense.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are a walking-wounded team right now, with a boatload of injuries on both sides of the ball. Arguably the most important (along with losing their starting center Monday and left tackle Terron Armstead being questionable) are De’Von Achane and MVP candidate Tyreek Hill. Achane is dealing with a toe injury and has been listed as questionable but only practiced once in a limited fashion during the week.
That was more than Hill did, as he didn’t practice all week. Hill injured his ankle Monday night and only played 47% of the snaps in that game. It seems highly questionable if he can play, but the Dolphins have to weigh the importance of the season and Hill being 458 yards away from achieving the first 2,000 receiving yards season in NFL history. If he’s out, Jaylen Waddle will have to take the lead role, with Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios chipping in as well. It’s no easy task against the excellent New York Jets secondary.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Let’s start with the easy one and say Christian Watson is not going to play for the Packers. It was horrible timing for him — things were going well for multiple games in a row and then he pulled his hamstring against the Chiefs in Week 13. In the running back room, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are tougher nuts to crack. Jones seems to be in line to be active for the first time since Week 11. The problem is even when he’s come back from injury before, the Packers have been very cautious with him. In Week 7, he only played 36% of the snaps and he’s yet to hit higher than 57% in any game. However, Dillon has been active in all of those games and that’s not sure this week. If Dillon is out, Green Bay may need to lean on Jones a bit more so we’re going to have to wait and see what the situation is on game day. If Dillon and Jones are active, a split seems inevitable.
Demario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots
After missing the past two weeks with a concussion, Demario Douglas is back in action for the Patriots, and it would have to be assumed he’ll slide back into being the alpha in the receiver room. Nobody from New England has exactly seized the reins in his absence and before he was injured, he had seen 6, 7, 7, 9 and 9 targets in his previous five games. It’s not the best matchup against Kansas City, but the Patriots lack any realistic options.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
It’s about to be a rough go for the Texans on paper because they lost Tank Dell already, and this week it looks like they’ll be without starting quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins. Davis Mills will be stepping in to run the offense but will be down to Noah Brown and Robert Woods as his main receivers. Even against a pass funnel in Tennessee, this is a lot to ask for anyone to be fantasy-relevant in the playoffs. The Texans are better left as a DFS play and not a team to rely on this week.
Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
It seems as though Chris Olave could miss this game since he didn’t practice all week with an ankle injury. The Saints are going to get Taysom Hill and Rashid Shaheed back, so that would help, but there is not an alpha receiver among those players. Part of their function in the offense with Olave playing his role, so it would be a tough road for Derek Carr. As it is, Michael Thomas is still on the IR, so the Sants could be missing their top two receivers that they entered the season with.
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson should be in line for quite a bit of work this week with Brian Robinson out against the Los Angeles Rams. Chris Rodriguez is surely going to mix in on some early downs — he has 6, 4 and 7 carries in the last three games. Still, the value here for Gibson should be in the passing game as he has 22 receptions in his last five games with Brian Robinson active. Gibson should be on the flex radar for most leagues that have any points per reception.
Original Injury Report
The past couple of weeks in the NFL have felt a little light as far as fantasy-relevant injuries, but Week 14’s games did fantasy football managers no favors. We saw multiple injuries to quarterbacks which can have ripple effects through the entire offense. Let’s dig into what happened and start to outline how to deal with everything.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have already all but ruled out Justin Herbert for Thursday due to a broken finger on his throwing hand. He’ll be seeing a specialist Monday to determine how much additional time he’s going to miss but Easton Stick will be the starter in the meantime. Stick went 13-of-24 in relief Sunday, but at least he gets to prepare as a starter for Thursday and the Raiders aren’t one of the best defenses in the league. Stick should be able to keep Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen afloat for fantasy, even if he has limited value himself.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Things couldn’t have gone much worse for the Texans Sunday. Not only did they lose against the Jets, but C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion and Nico Collins played just three snaps before leaving with a calf injury. This offense went from dynamic and fun to “this could go very poorly” in a hurry. If Stroud can’t clear concussion protocol, Davis Mills will have to step in and play quarterback. The biggest issue there is Tank Dell is already done for the rest of the season with a broken leg, and now Collins could be out as well. Noah Brown, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson all played at least 66% of the snaps but no player had more than five targets. Facing the Jets isn’t the best time to evaluate receivers but the entire offense takes a giant step backward without Stroud.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings offense had a tough day at the office Sunday, benching starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs and scoring just 3 points (though they did escape with a win). Alexander Mattison may not be able to make it back for next week with a high ankle sprain. If that’s the case, Ty Chandler will be the lead back. He’s shown some flashes this season, but it’s always a big leap to handle a full workload after splitting with another player. Justin Jefferson had finally made it back after dealing with a hamstring injury for nearly two months only to get hurt after just two receptions. The Vikings had him checked out at a hospital after he took a shot to the back area on a catch. Fortunately, he avoided a serious injury, but that’s the only information available at this juncture. T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison would revert to the main targets in the offense without Jefferson, but we also don’t know much about how Nick Mullens will function in the offense past his 13 attempts in this game.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
On the other side of the Vikings game, Josh Jacobs suffered his own injury and now faces a short week to be ready to play. The Raiders face the Chargers Thursday, and if Jacobs is unable to play, that’s going to make it a little difficult. I think the prevailing wisdom (and overall correct) way to approach it is Zamir White will be the first- and second-down back while Ameer Abdullah will handle the passing work. We haven’t seen Jacobs miss time so we’re operating with our best guess.
Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Normally, the third wide receiver role is not going to be best for fantasy, but if there’s a team where it could matter, the Rams might fall into that category. I wouldn’t want to run and start Demarcus Robinson, but Tutu Atwell was forced out of the game against the Ravens after just one target. Robinson stepped in and saw 10 targets, more than Puka Nacua and tied with Cooper Kupp for the team lead. I wouldn’t expect that to happen at all but for deeper leagues, Robinson could be worth a flier if Atwell has to miss any time.
