Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy playoffs are here, and fantasy managers were given a friendly lesson in variance in “win-or-go-home” matchups. Give yourself a round of applause if you had the foresight to start Baker Mayfield, Aidan O’Connell or Joe Flacco above players like Dak Prescott or Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Celebrate if you found your way into the playoffs with James Cook as your RB2 or Flex play after his massive game against the Cowboys.
For those of you who made the playoffs with a bye week or advanced after a first-round matchup, the grind never stops. Figuring out the players who are rising and falling late in the season could make or break a matchup at the most crucial point of the fantasy season. Check out the Week 15 risers and fallers below.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Risers
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has been a steady producer for fantasy football this season. He continues to rebuild his career after flaming out with the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers. Week 15 proved that Mayfield may have staying power with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he delivered his best performance of the season.
The veteran quarterback finished his game against the Packers as the first visiting quarterback to ever post a perfect passer rating (158.3) at Lambeau Field. Mayfield completed 22-of-28 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Chris Godwin did the heavy lifting (10 receptions for 155 yards), but four different players logged a receiving touchdown.
Mayfield is now up to 3,315 yards and 24 touchdowns with just eight interceptions this season and has the Buccaneers in the playoff picture in the NFC. He’s far exceeded expectations and is playing his best football as we enter the fantasy playoffs.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler got his first opportunity to play a significant role in the Vikings offense thanks to an ankle injury to Alexander Mattison. Based on his first career start, he could have some staying power and should be on our fantasy radar in 2024.
The second-year running back handled 23 carries against the Cincinnati Bengals and turned them into 132 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also added three receptions for 25 yards in an overtime loss. It remains to be seen what his role will look like if Mattison is healthy with him in the backfield, but at the very least it seems like he’s earned an expanded role.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
James Cook has been on an absolute tear since the Bills fired Ken Dorsey and promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator. The second-year running back hit new heights in a must-win game against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, carrying the ball 25 times for 179 yards and a touchdown while adding two receptions for 42 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Over Buffalo’s last four games, Cook has averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game and taken on a bigger role in the offense, especially in the receiving game. During that stretch, he has handled 17.0 carries, 4.0 receptions and logged 141 all-purpose yards per game. He’s also scored four touchdowns during that stretch, which has raised his fantasy floor.
Cook has the making of a league winner in fantasy football as the Bills keep pushing to earn their way back into the AFC playoff picture.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
Hunter Henry has earned fantasy relevance now that the Patriots have inserted Bailey Zappe under center. Over the last two weeks, Henry has caught 10-of-12 targets for 106 yards and three touchdowns. Henry was Zappe’s favorite target in Week 15 and saw nine targets against a stout Chiefs defense.
Henry suffered a hopefully minor injury in Week 15, but if he’s healthy he should be in the TE1 conversation against the Broncos, a defense that has continually struggled against the tight end position this season.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants
Darren Waller made his return in Week 15 and immediately found a way to be relevant. Waller played just 25 snaps and ran 22 routes against the New Orleans Saints but finished second on the team in targets (5). He finished tied for first in receptions (4) and second in receiving yards (40) in a losing effort.
Waller had plenty of time to get healthy after finding himself on the injured reserve thanks to a hamstring injury. The tight-end landscape in fantasy has been robust this season, but Waller could find his way into the weekly TE1 conversation as his role grows in the offense. Few tight ends operate as their team’s No. 1 target (and consistently flex out at a receiver spot), which could lead to some big weeks down the stretch.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Fallers
Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
It was rarely pretty, but Sam Howell found his way into our hearts this season as a top-10 fantasy quarterback thanks to his absurd passing volume due to a porous secondary. After Week 15, fantasy managers hoping to ride the Howell train to the fantasy championship got a rude awakening.
Howell was benched against the Los Angeles Rams after completing just 42.3% of his passes for 102 yards and one touchdown with one interception. It was the second straight game where Howell completed fewer than 55% of his passes and finished a game with under 150 passing yards.
It also didn’t help that Jacoby Brissett stepped into the starting lineup and delivered 124 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. Time will tell if the Commanders decide to roll with Howell or turn to Brissett down the stretch, but at the very least Washington has shown that Howell will have a short leash as the season comes to a close.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Week 15 could very well be just a blip on the radar for Saquon Barkley, with the running back putting together just nine carries for 14 yards. Or it could be a sign that the Giants are officially preparing for 2024 with the knowledge that Barkley is not in their plans.
It’s been an average season for Barkley in an offense that has floundered behind one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. Through Week 15, Barkley has 194 carries for 797 yards and three rushing touchdowns while adding 33 receptions on 46 targets for 206 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
Barkley played just 31 of 62 snaps for the Giants in a game that the Giants fell behind in a hurry. Sure, New York could have been trying to protect Barkley’s health in a big loss, but in the past games like this would increase targets for the running back. Instead, the Giants leaned on Matt Breida (24 snaps) while utilizing Eric Gray (11 snaps) in the fourth quarter.
Things may not get better for Barkley as the fantasy playoffs advance with matchups against the Eagles and Rams on the docket.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The return of Kyler Murray was supposed to be a boon for Marquise Brown. Outside of Week 14 (six receptions for 88 yards), Brown has struggled to provide any fantasy value. Unfortunately, he has struggled to stand out over the last four games while trying to navigate a heel injury.
Over the last four games, Brown is averaging just six targets and 2.25 receptions per game. He has just one game with more than 30 receiving yards since Murray’s return as well. Brown just hasn’t been healthy, and Murray hasn’t been able to take deep shots behind a porous offensive line.
His injury, combined with the offense’s general ineptitude, makes it impossible to trust the receiver in the fantasy playoffs.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
At least fantasy managers will always be able to remember the vintage performance Ja’Marr Chase delivered in Week 13 (11 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown) that could have pushed them into the fantasy playoffs.
Since then, Chase has logged just seven receptions for 93 yards. His 2023 fantasy future also took a significant hit thanks to a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the team’s game against the Vikings early. The early indications are that Chase suffered a separated shoulder that could sideline him for multiple weeks.
The Bengals are still in the playoff hunt, which could lead to Chase hurrying back to try to help the team secure a playoff spot. However, the team could also opt to shut the receiver down to take the big-picture view in mind.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
There was hope in the fantasy community that Kyle Pitts had turned a corner in the Falcons offense after he put together seven receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets in Weeks 13 and 14. However, Week 15 dragged expectations back down to reality with the veteran tight end catching just three of four targets for 34 yards.
However, Pitts doesn’t find himself on the fallers list because of his role in the passing attack (we’ve already come to terms with the fact that he just isn’t going to be what we need in fantasy this season). Instead, Pitts finds his way onto this list due to the way he failed to produce. Atlanta utilized four different tight ends against the Carolina Panthers, with all four players playing at least 17 snaps and running at least five routes.
Yes, the weather certainly factored into that decision and forced the Falcons into an even run-heavier offense (if that is even possible). Still, the fact that the Falcons continue to rotate tight ends and target Jonnu Smith down the field (where Pitts should thrive) is concerning and dashes any hope of fantasy relevance heading into the fantasy playoffs.
