Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christmas is behind us and the eggnog hangovers are here. What better way to cure it than with more NBA basketball? We have nine games on Saturday’s main slate with a handful of interesting situations — including the Rockets’ COVID-10 dilemma leaving them with roughly nine potentially active players. This is a situation to monitor and one that I address below, as it should have massive ownership implications.
As a reminder, the game-by-game breakdown is a brief overview of each game on the slate, providing a surface-level glimpse at what sticks out in each game.
Keep in mind that early in the season, the pace and defensive efficiency metrics listed are not necessarily 100% indicative of how teams will play, considering how many players and coaches find themselves in a new situation. After about the first three or four games for each team, I will transition into using current 2020-21 stats.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Hornets (-3)
Pace: OKC (22nd), CHA (30th)
Defensive efficiency: OKC (T7th), CHA (T23rd)
Terry Rozier saw a massive price jump after a 42-point outing opening night, now sitting at $6,400 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defending on the other end, this is a good spot to fade Rozier and opt for his teammate Devonte Graham for a bit less, as he posted an elite 40% assist rate in their opener. Bismack Biyombo is the other Hornet worth consideration, although he may be one of the chalkiest players on the slate. With Cody Zeller slated to miss four to six weeks, Biyombo should see 25-plus minutes at center for only $3,600 against a weak Thunder interior that lost Steven Adams in the offseason. P.J. Washington may also see some extra run at the five, making him a fine tournament flier at what should be minimal ownership.
The Thunder draw an enticing matchup, as Charlotte ran a faster pace in their first game than they were accustomed to all last season, but all of the players are priced at awkward spots. Gilgeous-Alexander should command a massive usage rate and be a peripheral machine, but he makes for a better play on FanDuel where he’s $700 cheaper. Darius Bazley is another Thunder asset that feels a touch cheap for his expected role, as he matches up well with Washington on the other side of the ball.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (-2.5)
Pace: CLE (T23rd), DET (28th)
Defensive efficiency: CLE (T30th), DET (22nd)
After disappointing as chalk Wednesday, Andre Drummond steps right back into an elite spot against his former team Saturday, albeit for $1,200 more than he was last slate. He’ll likely garner zero ownership with a few other chalk centers on the slate, making him an elite tournament pivot against his former team, assuming he hits the 30-minute mark. As for the rest of the Cavs, you can confidently go back to the well with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, as the lack of depth in the backcourt has locked them both into heavy minutes, as they saw 37 and 33, respectively. Isaac Okoro had a down game and still saw a $1,000 price-jump on DraftKings up to $4,400 but can be considered a solid value play once again on Saturday. He saw 34 minutes of action and should be primed for a similar workload against Detroit.
Larry Nance should be another enticing option, as he posted a well-rounded 13-point, 13-rebound, 8-assist, 5-stock (steals plus blocks) performance. He makes for a stronger play on FanDuel where peripherals are rewarded, but his $7,000 price tag will depress his ownership.
The Pistons box score Wednesday was as ugly as we anticipated, although there were some diamonds in the rough, specifically Mason Plumlee. While he saw a price jump, he led the team in minutes (32) en route to a 14-point, 8-rebound, 6-assist performance as the starting center, while backup Jahlil Okafor only saw 15 minutes. Plumlee seems locked into a significant role and makes for an elite pivot off the chalkier Christian Wood in large-field tournaments.
Jerami Grant is another Piston I am fine going right back to. He only shot 4-11 from the field in his first game and recorded a combined five peripherals (three assists, one rebound, one steal), but his overall body of work in that regard over the last few seasons can lead us to believe this was an outlier.
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards (-2)
Pace: ORL (T23rd), WAS (7th)
Defensive efficiency: ORL (T9th), WAS (29th)
On a full slate of games, this is one of the few that I have little interest in. While Washington should be a faster-paced team this season, Orlando typically runs a slow pace and is a good-enough defensive unit that it creates a difficult fantasy environment to trust.
Russell Westbrook is always in play in tournaments, as he should see less than 5% ownership and is a walking triple-double. The big news, however, will come if it’s deemed that both he and Davis Bertans will sit on the first leg of a back-to-back. While Scott Brooks said he hasn’t decided how he will handle the resting, this would immediately put Bradley Beal into the must-play conversation, as it’s the same logic we used for James Harden when Westbrook sat last season.
If Bertans sits, we can look right to Deni Avdija, who drew the start at the small forward in the opener and saw 28 minutes, as he’d be a good bet to pick up an extra 5-7 from Bertans’ absence.
The Magic are not a team I intend on targeting Saturday, but if you have the pressing need to roster someone, Nikola Vucevic remains reasonably priced ($9,100 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel) against a Wizards team that ranked 24th against rebounders, 24 against scorers and 19th against both skilled centers and point forwards, per the advanced DvP tool.
Philadelphia 76ers (-8) @ New York Knicks
Pace: PHI (19th), NYK (T23rd)
Defensive efficiency: PHI (T7th), NYK (T23rd)
Again, this slate is ripe with centers. Another who should come at little to no ownership? Joel Embiid. Per the aDvP referenced above, the Knicks ranked 28th against skilled centers, 23rd against rebounders and 21st against scorers last season. This is a blow-up spot for the polarizing center.
The rest of the Philly cast is tougher to trust at their prices, especially in cash. While Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris certainly have massive ceilings, they’re better suited for tournaments given their volatility, the blowout potential, and the size of this slate. If choosing between the two, Harris offers higher point-per-dollar upside.
The Knicks, like the Magic, are rarely a team that I target in DFS, and Saturday is no different, as the Sixers are a defensive unit that could blow this team out of the water. Mitchell Robinson should draw the start, but the odds he gets into foul trouble with Embiid relegate him to large-field tournaments only. Julius Randle and RJ Barrett are the only the only other Knicks to consider, as Randle led the team with a 25.3% usage rate, and both saw at least 34 minutes in Tom Thibodeau’s new offense.
Indiana Pacers (-4.5) @ Chicago Bulls
Pace: IND (T19th), CHI (T16th)
Defensive efficiency: IND (5th), CHI (15th)
Their prices have gone up, but boy oh boy did Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon look good Wednesday. Sabonis led the team with a 29% usage rate and should be able to have his way with the Bulls bigs in the paint. Brogon paced the backcourt with a 20.5% usage rate and 32% assist rate and continues to be one of the safest cash plays on any slate he’s on.
The Bulls were criminally underpriced Wednesday, which led to them being massive chalk in cash games. Since them, Wendell Carter has seen a $700 increase on DraftKings, Lauri Markkanen a $1,600 increase and Zach LaVine a $1,000 increase. Given the matchup with the Pacers, this is a Bulls team that I will be avoiding outside of LaVine in tournaments and Patrick Williams if I need salary relief. He’ll go virtually unowned and posted a 38.5% usage rate in their first game while running at a pace of 112.86 possessions per game. For reference, that’s over five possessions faster than the Milwaukee Bucks (league leader in pace) ran per game last season.
Williams drew the start over Otto Porter and performed well as min-priced chalk Wednesday, but his $1,500 price increase changes things a bit. He’s still a reliable value play given his ability to rack up peripherals, but given the other value on the slate, he’s not a necessity like he was on his last slate.
Toronto Raptors (-1) @ San Antonio Spurs
Pace: TOR (T11th), SAS (15th)
Defensive efficiency: TOR (2nd), SAS (T25th)
After a slew of games that don’t have a ton of intrigue, this is one that I view as one of the best targets on the slate. The one-point spread is a driver, but so are the player salaries heading into this game.
After a disappointing opener, Fred VanVleet is still only $7,300 on DraftKings, while his teammates Pascal Siakam ($8,200) and Kyle Lowry ($7,600) remain reasonable. Of the three, Lowry and VanVleet are my favorites, as the Spurs backcourt plays are a fast pace with Dejounte Murray at the helm. Speaking of, Murray was chalk Wednesday and paid dividends with Derrick White out. So, why not go right back to the well? He saw an $800 price increase, but that’s a moot point given the fact that he saw 31 minutes, something Popovich refused to give us last season. He flashed his peripheral upside (nine assists, six rebounds, two steals) and added 21 points, giving him a heap of upside at his price.
Outside of Murray, there is merit to considering DeMar DeRozan, who logged an efficient 28 points in their opener, as well as LaMarcus Aldridge, who remains under $7,000 on DraftKings after a 20-point outing. Both are better suited for tournaments.
The other Spurs player I have interest in is Lonnie Walker. He drew the start with White out and logged 16 points and six boards in 34 minutes and remains too cheap at $4,700. With so many popular value plays, this is a great way to differentiate your lineup in a safe way.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz (-8)
Pace: MIN (4th), UTA (26th)
Defensive efficiency: MIN (21st), UTA (T12th)
If we’ve learned one thing from the first game (and frankly, all of last season), Minnesota’s defense is going to continue to be one to target. After Mason Plumlee had his way with this frontcourt, it’s hard to see Rudy Gobert not succeeding here. He’ll have a ton of defensive opportunity against Karl-Anthony Towns and for $7,400, he provides a super stable floor and low ownership.
Donovan Mitchell will continue to pace this team offensively, as he held a 28.2% usage rate in their first game, but he’s priced at an awkward $8,400 on DraftKings where I’d rather just get up to Zach LaVine after seeing his role in the opener. Jordan Clarkson is the other Jazz player worth targeting (with price factored in), as his $5,300 salary leaves a ton of room for upside. He’s going to get minutes regardless of script, but he’ll be the key piece on the court if this game gets out of hand, giving him some minutes security in the second half that not all Jazz players can say they have.
The Timberwolves side of the ball is one I’m avoiding here. The Jazz are a stout defensive unit as a whole and while exploitable at the point guard position, Ricky Rubio is not someone I want to roster at $6,300 on a full nine-game slate. The same can be said about D'Angelo Russell. Towns is always a rock-solid GPP play, but given his matchup, it may be wise to lean toward Embiid and Vucevic at low ownership in tournaments.
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers (no line)
Pace: HOU (T2nd), POR (13th)
Defensive efficiency: HOU (T12th), POR (27th)
After having their opening game postponed against the Thunder, the Rockets will take the court against the Blazers with a shortened rotation, as John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Gordon, Ben McLemore, Mason Jones and Kenyon Martin are all out. This is a situation you want to avoid overanalyzing.
Christian Wood was $6,300 Wednesday and en route to being massive chalk (good chalk), but now finds himself in the same situation for $400 less in a more enticing matchup, so expect him to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. James Harden should be in the same boat, as he remains under $11,000 on DraftKings and should flirt with a 45% usage rate with Wall, Cousins and Gordon out as he operates as the primary ball handler. Sterling Brown, Bruno Caboclo and Danuel House are all worth consideration as well, as they provide salary relief for the rest of your lineup and should be in line for a massive number of minutes.
This sets up as a great game-stack, as running your Rockets stack back with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum or an underpriced Jusuf Nurkic should help differentiate your lineup and gain exposure to what should be a fast-paced game.
Phoenix Suns (-3.5) @ Sacramento Kings
Pace: PHX (10th), SAC (21st)
Defensive efficiency: PHX (16th), SAC (20th)
This is another game that is going to be one of the most appealing on the slate. Devin Booker sits as the highest-priced player in the game at $9,800, followed by De’Aaron Fox at $8,700. While both have their merit, it may be wise to completely forego these two and opt for players with more reasonable salaries in this game. Specifically, that means Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul. This is going to be an elite GPP stack throughout the entire season, as Paul runs the pick-and-roll so frequently that the primary roll-man (Ayton) is going to be a massive beneficiary. They’ll come in at little-to-no ownership and have massive upside for their prices, as you’re able to fit both alongside Harden and Wood comfortably.
Outside of those two, the rest of the Suns are hard to trust based on their prices. Mikal Bridges had a phenomenal opener, but given his body of work from last season, it doesn’t feel like a performance that will become the norm. I’d rather opt for Cam Johnson at $1,200 less, as he still saw 26 minutes and saw elite volume off of the bench.
On the Kings side of the ball, Buddy Hield is an intriguing option after logging 41 minutes in the overtime thriller against Denver. His total of 15 shot attempts feels low, but the fact that 11 of them were from beyond the arc heightens his upside on a site that rewards the three (DraftKings). Harrison Barnes should continue to play meaningful minutes and while not a sexy play, he’s one with a massive ceiling at low ownership.
Hassan Whiteside makes for an interesting GPP play again. He only saw 18 minutes in the opener, but he’s made a career of logging over a fantasy point per minute (flirting with 1.3-1.4), which makes him a strong (but risky) tournament option.
