Week 16 flames: Put a trophy under the tree with Hurts, Bell

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 16 Flames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

(18% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $7,000)
Matchup: at DAL
Vegas line/Total: PHI -2, 49.5

For all the little sharp-tongued and ingenious Home Alone Kevins who are aiming for a league title this holiday season, Hurts’ matchup against the downtrodden Cowboys is equivalent to a dozen Little Nero’s cheese pizzas, delivered fresh and piping hot, much to the displeasure of lawn jockey statues everywhere. Whether attacked via ground or air, Dallas has proven 110% accepting of virtually any offensive maneuver. This season, they’ve surrendered 7.1 pass yards per attempt, 24 passing touchdowns and 4.90 yards per carry. Volatility in the secondary caused by COVID-19, injuries and overall ineptitude have only dragged down the exploitable unit’s profile. What remains is a highly sinkable skeleton crew, one that’s given up six 25-point fantasy QB performances.

Hurts, inserted into the starting lineup two weeks ago, mercifully ending Carson Wentz’s insufferable tenure as the starter, has lived up to every expectation this dunderheaded scribe penned when the Eagles selected him in Round 2 of last April’s NFL Draft. I tried to educate fools. He made judicious decisions, displayed all-field arm strength and, most importantly for gamers, powered his way to chunk ground gains (169 yards versus NO and ARI). The dude, at 6-foot-1, 223 pounds and equipped with the leg strength to squat Santa and his entire sleigh (reindeer included), is a load to lasso. Against Dallas’ hapless defense he will score backers a trophy under the tree. Consider him a top-three option in the title round and a popular middle-round pick in drafts next season.

Fearless forecast: 201 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 67 rushing yards, 22.7 fantasy points

Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(26%; $6,000)
Matchup: at DET
Vegas line/Total: TB -9, 53.5

Tom Brady’s Tampa adventure hasn’t been all hot cocoa and holiday lights. Repeated misfires on deep passes combined with the Bucs’ vulnerability to the pass on defense has the franchise teetering on a playoff appearance. Jones’ emergence as the club’s primary rusher, however, is one refreshing development. He staved off Leonard Fournette midway through the regular season, slowed only by a brief bout with COVID-19 and a busted pinky. He’s exhibited the power of multiple Bumbles, bouncing off would-be tacklers for considerable YAC gains (3.63 YAC/att, RB5; RB7 in yards created). Having Jones carry the eggnog bowl, however, still isn’t recommended. He has shown improvement as a pass catcher (66.7% catch percentage), but a torrent of drops is always a possibility. Still, his second-half spark explains why Bruce Arians decided to lean on him down the homestretch.

This week, Jones is sure to be the jolly old coach’s Rudolph. The Lions, rudderless and out of playoff contention, are simply going through the motions defensively. Everyone’s favorite Secret Santa has been overly generous to the opposition, gifting 4.66 yards per carry, 161.4 total yards per game, 25 combined TDs and the most fantasy points to RBs. Tampa’s middle-of-the-road offensive line (No. 15 in run-blocking efficiency) should have little to no trouble paving the way for Jones to knife through the light defensive fog. When the snow settles, the rusher could have his fifth 100-yard game of the season. (Editor's note: If Jones isn't activated in time, insert Leonard Fournette in this space, though with a lower projection. Think 60-70 combined yards and a score.)

Fearless forecast (If he's active): 16 carries, 103 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.2 fantasy points

Wayne Gallman, RB, New York Giants

(48%; $5,700)
Matchup: at BAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -10.5, 45

Not long ago, inserting Gallman into your championship game lineup would be equivalent to risking it all for a plate of Applebee’s boneless chicken wings peak pandemic, an unperceptive move. To be fair, he did register appreciable numbers when elevated previously into a primary role (e.g. Weeks 10-13 in 2017), but, for the most part, he was buried behind Saquon Barkley — and for a brief period Devonta Freeman — for a reason. He’s never been particularly explosive (4.60 40-yard) or exuded the quick-twitch gene. It’s why his ascension this year is all the more implausible. The promoted backup has transformed from forgotten wader in the free agent pool to a viable every-week RB2 in 12-team formats. His RB4 standing in YAC per attempt (3.74) and 12-plus fantasy points scored in six of his last eight games only confirms this.

Yes, Freeman, who missed several games due to ankle/COVID-19 issues, is back practicing, but don’t believe for one nanosecond Gallman has lost his grip on the starting gig. With the Giants’ back against the wall, he will provide considerable stability in Week 16. The Ravens, somewhat wingless against the run, are a defensive façade. Baltimore’s secondary is stellar, but its performance in the trenches has seriously lacked. This season, Don Martindale’s crew has allowed 4.27 yards per carry, 88.8 rush yards per game and 12 combined scores to RBs. New York’s offensive line ranks in the bottom third in run-blocking efficiency, but it has made strides down the homestretch. In a crucial game from the Giants to maintain pace with Washington in the NFC LEast and with Daniel Jones likely back, Gallman gallops his way to another double-digit fantasy line.

Fearless forecast: 13 carries, 55 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 13.4 fantasy points

Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

(44%; $5,900)
Matchup: vs. IND
Vegas line/Total: PIT -2.5, 45.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers are the perfectly polished white Lambo from Martin Scorsese classic The Wolf of Wall Street — unblemished one minute; wrecked in a quaalude-induced joyride the next. Last week they continued to crash into parked cars against a beatable Bengals squad ultra-motivated to knock off their rival. In that matchup, Claypool finally realized some air yards — he’s No. 6 in unrealized air yards on the year — catching three passes (on 8 targets) for 54 yards. The end zone, however, remained elusive. With Ben Roethlisberger’s confidence rattled, the once indispensable weekly starter is somewhat trustworthy, this time against a fading Colts secondary.

Indy ranks middle of the pack in total pressures with 114, but brings the blitz the lowwest percentage (17.4%) of the time in the NFL. If you give Ben Roethlisberger time to cock, lock and fire, he can repeatedly burn you with chunk gains downfield. Claypool, who ranks top-10 in total deep-ball targets, is bound to carve roast beasts. His primary assignment, the inimitably named Rock Ya-Sin, has surrendered a 71.2% catch percentage, 103.2 passer rating and 1.68 yards per snap to his assignments. As a collective, the Colts rank inside the top-10 in yards allowed to wide receivers since Week 11. Given the splendid paper matchup, it’s wise to slide the rookie into your WR3 spot and let it ride.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.2 fantasy points

Tyron Johnson, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

(7%; $4,000)
Matchup: vs. DEN
Vegas line/Total: LAC -3.5, 48.5

The Melvin Gordon REVENGE GAME narrative is sure to adorn billboards across Fantasyland this week, but overlooking Johnson’s potential contributions could wind up stealing the headline. Rising from the deepest, darkest recesses of the waiver wire, the UDFA out of Oklahoma State — playing for his fourth NFL franchise in two years — is quickly becoming the surprise story of the late season. His fast-spinning wheels (4.41 40-yard), reliable hands and sharpened routes has lured the attention of Justin Herbert over the past couple weeks. Against the Falcons and Raiders, he attracted 12 targets, catching nine for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Even if Keenan Allen, limited by a hamstring, returns to form, the magnetism between the pair should continue.

Denver’s defensive backfield deconstruction is visible. Since losing A.J. Bouye to suspension, the unit, average even with its top cover corner available, has rapidly deteriorated. Their futile effort against Josh Allen was case in point. Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox and others effortlessly exploited soft spots in coverage, repeatedly finding open voids or getting steps on defenders. Johnson’s speed, added route polish and exploding confidence are problematic. Over the past three weeks, the Broncos have given up 8.0 pass yards per attempt and five 11-plus fantasy point WR performances. Rookie DB, Michael Ojemudia, Johnson’s projected assignment, has allowed a 116.9 passer rating and 1.46 yards per snap. Don’t be surprised if the blossoming wideout adds another double-digit performance to his growing legend.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.8 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Josh Reynolds, WR, Los Angeles Rams

(2%; $3,200)
Matchup: vs. SEA
Vegas line/Total: SEA -2, 47.5

In my worst attempt to replicate George Michael’s angelic voice in Wham’s timeless holiday classic Last Christmas, “This year, to save me from tears. I’m going to give it to someone special.” To prevent painful feelings of finishing second, surrender your heart to Reynolds, deep leaguers. This isn’t a once bitten, twice shy scenario. Yes, his presence has diminished over the past few weeks, evidenced by his routes run and targets reduction, but fantasy is all about matchups and for the Rams third wheel, his Week 15 tilt is a splendid one. Recall the last time he went toe-to-toe with Seattle, in Week 10, the wideout slashed a 10-8-94-0 line, torching Tre Flowers (106.1 passer rating, 1.02 yards/snap allowed) repeatedly when lined up in the slot.

Seattle, once marshmallow pillowy against the pass, is still on a historic pace for most pass yards surrendered in a season. It, however, has shown marked improvement over the past several weeks. Since Week 11, thanks to cupcake matchups versus the Giants, Jets and Fighting Footballs, they’ve conceded 5.4 pass yards per attempt, 105.8 wideout yards per contest and the fewest fantasy points to WRs. Quite the turnaround. Ramped-up pressure applied on the pocket is the fundamental change that’s shifted the tide. Despite the strides and Jared Goff’s reliance on Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, Reynolds is a dark horse who could buck the recent trend.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.0 fantasy points

Bonus Flames (under 60% started)

QB: Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (Line: CHI -7.5; DK: $5,700) — The Jaguars are the personification of the electrocuted cat from Christmas Vacation. Defensively, they, too curious for their own good, have nibbled on a metaphorical wire, inevitably meeting their demise. This season, they’ve conceded 8.28 pass yards per attempt, 279.0 passing yards per game, 2.2 vertical strikes per contest and the second-most fantasy points to the position. Trubisky, lampooned ceaselessly by the Bears faithful over the years, hasn’t lived down to his sea-level expectations. He’s a Jekyll-and-Hyde quarterback, but since his reinsertion into the starting lineup, he’s performed notably. He tossed at least three touchdowns in three of four starts. Yes, turnovers, inaccuracy (QB27 Weeks 11-15) and deep-ball ineffectiveness continue to plague him, but numbers are numbers. Given the softball matchup, he’s worth trotting out with everything on the line. Admittedly that last line was written two tequila shots in. (FF: 261-3-2-15-0, 21.9 fantasy points)

RB: Melvin Gordon, DEN (Line: LAC -3.5; DK: $5,600) — In 2015-2019, Gordon was San Diego/L.A.’s RB anchor. Over 67 career games, he amassed 4,240 rush yards and 36 ground TDs, both top-five all-time in franchise history. The ending to his Chargers career was far from storybook as the organization and rusher’s relationship quickly soured due to a contract dispute. Intradivisional enemies post-divorce, the two collide for the second time this season. The rusher registered an unexciting 47 total yards and zero scores on 14 touches in the first clash in Week 8, but, riding a hot hand of late (85.8 total yards per game, 4 TDs since Week 11), he’s a reliable RB2 in your championship matchup. This season, the Chargers have allowed 4.61 yards per carry, 132.9 total yards per game and 11 TDs to RBs. (FF: 15-58-1-2-11-0, 13.9 fantasy points)

RB: Myles Gaskin, MIA (Line: MIA -2.5; DK: $5,300) — Deck the halls, ‘Fins fanatics. Gaskin, who was sidelined by a COVID-19 bout the past two weeks, is on schedule to return just in the St. Nick of time. When in uniform this season, the former Washington Husky has mushed. On 67.8% of the opportunity share, he compiled a respectable 1.29 yards created per touch. His 2.48 YAC per attempt and 15.4 missed tackle rate were marginal at best, but active as a receiver (54.6% route participation percentage) he topped 80 combined yards in five of eight games. Candidly, Lynn Bowden Jr.’s emergence could eat into his target share. Still, he’s Miami’s thumper, a rusher who’ll command the red-zone bulk, though Salvon Ahmed will be involved. This week facing a decimated Vegas defense he’s every bit a RB2 in 12-team leagues. The Raiders have yielded 4.87 yards per carry, 148.2 total yards per game, 19 total TDs and the fourth-most fantasy points to rushers. (FF: 17-63-1-3-15-0, 15.3 fantasy points)

WR: Rashard Higgins, CLV (Line: CLV -9.5; DK: $4,800) — As the other “Hollywood,” Baltimore’s Marquise Brown, currently calls downtown Yuma home, Cleveland’s version is fully representing Tinseltown. Ratcheting up his game over the past three weeks, Higgins has lured 21 targets catching 16 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns (WR12 in 0.5 PPR). His accompanying 14.2 average depth of target over the stretch and top-10 standing in fantasy points per target on the season only bolster the profile. This week facing (Insert name not Trevor Lawrence) future employer, the laughable Jets, he’s undoubtedly in the WR3 discussion. On the year, New York has surrendered 7.8 pass yards per attempt and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. His projected tango partner, Bryce Hall, has allowed a 118.0 passer rating and 1.28 yards per snap to his assignments. In a contest Baker Mayfield should deal, Higgins a tremendous flex play in 12-team formats. (FF: 4-62-1, 14.2 fantasy points)

TE: Jared Cook, NO (Line: NO -6.5; DK: $4,000) — Trading Taysom Hill for Drew Brees is on par with swapping your stack of Greg Jefferies Donruss Rated Rookies for a PSA 10 Ken Griffey Jr. 1989 Upper Deck. Well … in normal circumstances. The future HOFer QB was visibly rusty in his return off 11 broken ribs and a partially collapsed lung. Deep balls fluttered and he even labored on high-percentage throws. Still, with a game under his belt and additional days to heal, he should resemble an above-replacement-level passer in Week 16. It’s Minnesota, a team featuring a feckless secondary. The Vikings have given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points to TEs on the year, but sans Michael Thomas, Cook should receive a holly jolly uptick in overall target share. (FF: 3-44-1, 11.9 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Le'Veon Bell, KC (Line: KC -10.5; DK: $5,800) — Slobberknockered off sazeracs on Bourbon Street, the injury imp mosied into the Superdome and feasted on the lower appendages of once chased after rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The young RB, who fantasy GMs once sunk a Round 1 pick in, was felled by a gnarly knee injury, a setback that will keep him sidelined in KC’s ongoing defense of the Lombardi trophy. In steps the veteran Bell, who dodged an imp snacking of his own. The insurance policy, acquired in October, is sure to shoulder the load with occasional spellings from Darrel Williams. He isn’t as elusive or spry like his peak days in Pittsburgh, but in the Chiefs’ nuclear offense, a sedated Bell could sleepwalk his way to RB2 numbers. KC’s Week 16 opponent, Atlanta, is rather inflexible in the trenches. They’ve allowed 3.72 yards per carry, 108.9 total yards per game, 10 combined TDs and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Still, when Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback, friendly boxes are sure to be commonplace. Punching one in from close range is a strong probability for Le’Veon. (FF: 15-52-1-4-21-0, 14.2 fantasy points)

Super bonus flame: David Montgomery, CHI (Line: CHI -7.5; DK: $7,700) — Screw sugar plums. What’s dancing in this Bad Santa’s head are thoughts about #MandatoryMontgomery’s borderline-pornographic production over the past four weeks. Over that stretch only Derrick Henry has outpaced him in total 0.5 PPR fantasy point output as he’s notched 142.8 total yards per game, six combined TDs, 4.13 YAC per attempt and 0.23 avoided tackles per attempt. Yes, he’s benefited from a string of weak opponents, but give the damn man some credit. Whether superficially or underneath the magnifying glass, he’s living up to this writer’s ceaseless hype. Can we put to rest negative viewpoints and accept the fact he’s good at tackle football? This week, Montgomery will continue to stuff stockings with attractive stats. Jacksonville, now the frontrunners for a certain blonde QB from Clemson, has yielded 4.54 yards per carry, 162.9 total yards per game, 16 combined TDs and the third-most fantasy points to RBs. In this my final ‘Flames’ of 2020, it’s only fitting Montgomery is the exclamation point. Eat crow, haters. (FF: 20-102-2-3-22-0, 25.9 fantasy points)