NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We love fantasy football. We’ve researched fantasy football. We studied rookies, reviewed depth charts, and analyzed beat reporter comments ad infinitum. We think we know everything there is to know, especially about Week 1. Then, after Week 1, we all love to jump to irrational conclusions. Week 2 of every NFL season brings classic knee-jerk reactions. If we lost our first Week 1 fantasy matchup, panic sets in.
I’m here to remind you the importance of not overreacting to Week 1 and subsequently making a rash waiver wire add/drop that you will later regret. Sometimes our preseason beliefs are wrong, but sometimes they just need a few weeks to prove accurate.
After months of information gathering, projections, and analysis, we need to accept the fact that something we know is wrong. In fact, it is likely that several things we believe are wrong. However, that conclusion can never be drawn after Week 1.
Let’s take a look back at some of the crazy things that happened in the augural NFL week of 2022, and see if we can find potential situations that could produce a similar overreaction this season.
Misleading Week 1 2022 Storylines
Carson Wentz Was the Overall QB4 Through Two Games
Washington started the season 1-1 through two games, and Carson Wentz was performing at an elite level. Wentz’s two stat lines from the first two matchups:
- 27-of-41, 313 yards, 4 TDs
- 30-of-46, 337 yards, 3 TDs
Wentz never approached that production for the rest of season, throwing just four more touchdowns and six interceptions the remainder of 2022. He suffered a finger fracture in Week 6 and failed to return to the field until Dec. 24 at San Francisco. Wentz game way to Taylor Heinicke, who started eight games.
Who could be this year’s Carson Wentz? Look no further than new Washington starting quarterback, Sam Howell. There isn’t much to be confident about with the Commanders Week 1 opponent, Arizona. The Cardinals just waived veteran quarterback Colt McCoy and traded for the inexperienced Joshua Dobbs to compete with rookie Clayton Tune. The betting line opened Washington -4.5 and was quickly bet up to Washington -7. Dobbs or Tune will be the Cardinals starting Week 1 quarterback, facing a Washington defense that Aaron Schatz projects as the fifth best per defensive DVOA.
Washington will start the second-year quarterback, Howell, who has started just one NFL game and thrown only19 career passes. Is it outlandish that Howell teases fantasy fans with a massive opening week performance against an inferior opponent, only to come crashing down in the subsequent weeks at Denver, home to Buffalo, and at reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia?
In fact, there is even reason to be concerned about Howell in Week 1. In the last nine games as an NFL head coach where a Ron Rivera-coached team was a home favorite of six or more points, his team has failed to cover seven times (77.8%). Even worse? Ron Rivera has failed to cover 10 of the last 12 games where his team was a home favorite of just four points or more. As Washington head coach, Rivera has never been a home favorite of more than four points. Yet, the Commanders are now favored by seven points and the public continues to back Washington.
There is strong belief in the Washington offense, and most assume Arizona will tank the season. This should lead to a big Week 1 performance by Howell, which could be very misleading. Suppose Howell understandably struggles? Terry McLaurin is still injured for Washington, is Jahan Dotson ready to produce in his potential absence? Should we just ignore Ron Rivera’s ATS struggles as a head coach?
Given Wentz’s misleading start to 2022, I’d be cautious with drawing too much of a conclusion from Howell’s start to this season, even if he dominates the Cardinals at home in Week 1.
D’Andre Swift Was the Overall PPR RB3 Through Two Games
Oh, those D’Andre Swift truthers are certainly loyal … and loud.
The victory laps on social media came quickly, especially after 175 total yards, 3 receptions, and a touchdown in Week 1, and 87 total yards, two receptions and a touchdown in Week 2. Swift posted the overall PPR RB3 and RB6 performances, equating to the overall RB2 ranking after two weeks.
Swift suffered a high ankle sprain in his dominant Week 1 performance and then added a separated left shoulder in Week 3 against Minnesota. He then missed four games with a bye week for added rest, but never returned to the same level, serving as backup to a huge Jamaal Williams season.
Swift was a pass-catching back who saw his unsustainable production masked by negative gamescripts resulting from a huge Week 1 home deficit. The Lions fell behind 31-14 in the third quarter to Philadelphia, providing opportunities for Swift to rack up yardage. Despite being drafted as the overall RB8, Swift finished the fantasy year as a disappointing RB23 in total fantasy points.
Who could be that running back this year? How about Houston running back Dameon Pierce, who could see a massive negative game script as 9.5-point underdogs? Expectations are high for the Ravens under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Baltimore has an elite group of offensive weapons with breakout potential. Running back J.K. Dobbins looks fully recovered from ACL surgery and hopes to display his 4.37 speed and 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame. Wide receiver Rashod Bateman hope to finally display his immense upside after two years of nagging injuries, Veteran Odell Beckham still brings big-play ability to every down and is still the best deep weapon quarterback Lamar Jackson has seen in his five NFL seasons. Rookie Zay Flowers has exceeded the already high expectations of a first-round pick, and All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews returns as the perfect safety valve with immense touchdown upside.
Pierce has been a polarizing player in the fantasy community, residing in the dreaded “dead zone” of drafts, but has been on the rise over the past two weeks, rising to his current ADP as RB19. If the Ravens get up early, I could see Pierce gobbling up fantasy points in the second half, leading to an unrealistic projection for the rest of the season.
Josh Jacobs Was Only the Overall PPR RB32 After Two Games
Patience is a virtue, possess it if you can. After two weeks last season, Jacobs drafters were in a full panic. In the Raiders first two contests, Jacobs posted unimpressive stat lines of:
- 73 total yards, 1 reception
- 81 total yards, 1 reception
Jacobs sat as a woeful PPR RB32 after those two games, but he flipped his season around in the subsequent weeks. He started his momentum against Tennessee in Week 3, where he caught five of his six targets and tallied 97 total yards, good enough for RB15. Jacobs then went nuclear, rattling off the PPR RB2, RB3 and RB2 weeks in the next three games. During that span he totaled 15 receptions, 523 total yards and six touchdowns.
The key to patient Jacobs drafters was simply recognizing his lack of competition in the Raiders backfield. Rookie Zamir White received minimal work, while veteran Brandon Bolden received just three carries in Week 1 and none in Week 2. Jacobs volume was guaranteed, which meant the production would certainly follow, assuming no injuries.
The key to the concern about Jacobs is that there was still doubt on whether he was an elite NFL RB1. More established backs such as Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry leave fantasy drafters no choice but to be patient. Jacobs’ RB2 ADP from last year amplified the knee-jerk reactionary concern.
Running backs that match Jacobs ADP and lack of backfield competition from last year include: Cam Akers (LAR), Rashaad White (TB) and especially Dallas lead RB Tony Pollard, who is being selected as a top-8 fantasy RB. If Pollard struggles during the first two weeks, fantasy drafters should not be concerned with Rico Dowdle or Deuce Vaughn supplanting his workload.
The Jaguars Slow Start Eliminated Them from the Division Race
This one lasted well beyond the first few games, actually through Week 8. After the first eight contests, Jacksonville appeared to maintain their struggles from the Urban Meyer disaster. The Jaguars entered Week 9 on a five-game losing streak and seemed destined for a repeat last-place finish in the AFC South.
However, the Jaguars finished the year winning six of their last seven games, including a five-game winning streak to end the regular season. Jacksonville took advantage of a weak division to steal the division title, even after a slow start.
This year’s Jaguars could easily be the Green Bay Packers, who had the worst odds to win the NFC North for the majority of the spring, hovering around +600. Most expect a step backwards after the four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers decided to sign with the New York Jets. It is time for Jordan Love to ascend to the starting quarterback position, which could only mean the Packers will regress, right?
The Packers bring a strong two-headed rushing attack of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon that can shorten the game and control the ball. While Love is inexperienced, his dynamic receiving trio of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed, are very solid.
Green Bay is now tied with Chicago at +400 to win the division, still trailing Detroit and Minnesota. The Lions are hardly a dominant team, especially with a defense that ranked 28th overall in DVOA. Minnesota’s defense wasn’t much better (27th in DVOA) and the Bears were actually the worst in the league.
The most vulnerable team in this division is last year’s AFC North champion, the Vikings. Minnesota finished 13-4 despite allowing more points (427) than they scored (424). Minnesota was an unsustainable 11-0 in one-score games, a vulnerable stat for year-to-year regression.
The Packers profile similarly to Jacksonville, and should not be discounted even after a potential slow start. I project Green Bay to stay in this NFC North race throughout the season, even if they struggle against Justin Fields and the Bears in Week 1.
