NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
After the first few rounds of your fantasy draft, or your first few successful bids in an auction draft, the players left on the board begin to lose their shine. Unfortunately, teams aren’t entirely composed of first and second-rounders. They’re the anchors while the rest of a roster is typically a mix of potential breakouts and consistent, high-floor options.
The breakouts are fun to select. You call your shot on a young or relatively unknown player with hopes that you’ll cash in big and ride them to a championship. However, these players come with higher risk and that forces almost every manager to make some “boring” decisions throughout their draft.
Boring players have been there and done that, already had their breakout and likely already saw their fantasy peak. Because these players have lost their shine, they can pay off major dividends late in the draft. When your leaguemates are busy calling their shots on breakouts and reaching for players that probably won’t pan out, you can fill out your roster with a handful of players that still have immense value despite seeming a bit stale. Here, we’ll identify a few of those players that are being passed up on largely because they’re not “exciting” anymore.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon and his gross 3.9 yards per carry might actually be worth the selection in fantasy football. Despite nearly every rushing metric telling us that Joe Mixon isn’t good at real football anymore, touches are king in the land of fantasy running backs, and Mixon is a lock to get a ton of ‘em. In 2022, Mixon had a 17-game pace of 91 targets, 73 receptions and over 530 receiving yards. Add that to 250 carries and nearly 1,000 yards on the ground and he’d rank among the elite when it comes to racking up opportunities.
Mixon has ranked in the top-12 in points per game in each of the last three seasons and in four of the last five, plus Samaje Perine is gone and the Bengals didn’t adequately replace him. With a top-tier workload for a top-tier offense, Mixon’s late third round ADP makes him a great RB1 option for managers who prefer a WR-heavy start and an even better RB2 option for those who like balanced starts.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You could do a lot worse than drafting a guy who has accumulated nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Sure, Mike Evans is probably past his prime and just lost the quarterback who fueled his two best touchdown seasons of his career, but he’s one of the most quarterback-proof receivers in the NFL. He averaged more yards and receptions per season before Brady with quarterbacks like Jameis Winston, Mike Glennon, Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Now, Baker Mayfield steps in and he may actually suit Evans’ strengths.
Mayfield actually had a higher passer rating on deep throws than Tom Brady last season per FTN’s deep passing data, and his 44.8% completion percentage on deep throws ranked third in the NFL. Evans will be the best deep threat he’s ever played with, so it’s reasonable to expect the two to develop a rapport or at least for the four-time Pro-Bowler to receive a generous helping of deep targets. If consistency is boring, so be it. Mike Evans should smash his seventh-round ADP.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s easy to be seen as boring when your teammate – George Pickens – is the talk of Twitter (X?) for all of the one-handed-maybe-pass-interference grabs he’s making. Combine the Pickens hype with the fact that Diontae Johnson set the record for most targets without a touchdown last season, and you get a recipe that makes drafters want to stay away. Well, what if Johnson, who has led the Steelers in targets each of his four seasons in the league, is just as good as he’s always been and scores a few touchdowns? What if Kenny Pickett does take a year two leap and it primarily benefits his No. 1 receiver?
Johnson finished as WR39, and he’s being drafted as the WR33, but FTN’s Expected Fantasy Points tool had him as the 10th overall receiver in expected points behind only players who are being drafted in the first four rounds of fantasy drafts. It would be surprising if he finished all the way up at WR10, but I’d be more shocked if he finished as low as WR33. With a little regression to the mean, Johnson should beat his ADP as comfortably as anyone, and you need players like that to build a championship roster.
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears
Per the FTN Splits Tool, in six games where David Montgomery played less than 15 snaps, Khalil Herbert has averaged 22 opportunities, 110 total yards and 15 half-PPR points per game. Now, Montgomery is gone and the Bears replaced him with journeyman D’Onta Foreman and fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson. Foreman isn’t as talented, and Johnson isn’t as much of an investment as Montgomery was for the Bears. Plenty of folks want to anoint Johnson, but fourth-round backs don’t have the same track record as first and second rounders.
If Herbert holds onto the starting job – which I expect him to do – he should be seeing 15-plus opportunities in a run-focused offense. If he can add some of the explosive receiving work that he flashed in the preseason, managers could get a legitimate RB2 in the eighth round.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
With virtually no rushing ability, Jared Goff doesn’t appeal to fantasy managers despite leading one of the NFL’s best offenses. In 2022, he finished as the QB10 in total points and the QB15 in points per game, but he’s being drafted as the QB17 in 2023. Goff finished third in passing fantasy points behind only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow, putting him in elite company when it comes to having a fantasy floor, and he could actually have more success this year.
The Lions were third in the NFL in rushing touchdowns thanks to Jamaal Williams’ whopping 17, so if a few of those turn to passing TDs in 2023, Goff could see a boost in production. Without much rushing ability, his ceiling is capped, but he’s a low-end QB1 and is a great QB2 option in superflex leagues. It’s a bit boring to take a pocket passer, but Goff is such a safe option playing in an innovative, elite offense with solid playmakers around him.
