NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It is officially July, which is also known as the last month of the year when we will be without NFL or college football. Here at FTN, we will continue our offseason ADP analysis with the season just around the corner.
The number of people drafting best ball teams on Underdog continues to rise as we move through the offseason, and many are starting to prepare for their redraft leagues just around the corner. This article will look at some of the biggest movers over the past two weeks in Underdog’s best ball drafts. Keep in mind that ADP can be a bit skewed by fantasy gamers reaching to create stacks to go with the quarterback position. With that in mind, let’s dive in.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 176.4, QB25
As the season draws closer, it seems more and more likely that Brock Purdy will be ready to start the season after offseason elbow surgery. That means Purdy will probably be under center the first game of the season for the 49ers. The constant drum beat of good news has moved Purdy’s ADP up 9.3 spots over the last two weeks, making him the biggest mover at the QB position.
Purdy emerged out of nowhere last season once Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo were lost for the season to injuries. The rookie quarterback won all five of his regular-season starts and both of his postseason starts where he stayed healthy. During the regular season, he completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,374 yards and 13 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Assuming he starts, Purdy will be the starting quarterback in an offense that features Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Even if he’s average, all he has to do is get the ball to those weapons and let them generate yards after the catch.
Purdy is currently being drafted as the QB25 on Underdog, which seems far too low considering all of his weapons are going off the board in the top-60 positions in drafts.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 172.4, RB53
Kenneth Gainwell’s ADP has been suppressed throughout the offseason thanks to the additions of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny to the Eagles backfield. These players will likely relegate Gainwell to the RB3 role to start the season, which has little fantasy value. But based on what we saw from Gainwell during the Eagles’ 2022 Super Bowl run, he remains a player to monitor.
Gainwell saw his role in the Eagles’ offense grow each week of the playoffs last season, culminating with a 51% snap share in the Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. In that three-game stretch, Gainwell had 33 carries for 181 yards and a touchdown while adding six receptions on nine targets for 55 yards. Despite Gainwell’s efficiency, the team still saw fit to bring in two running backs to replace recent free agent Miles Sanders. However, both Swift and Penny have struggled to stay healthy throughout their careers, meaning Gainwell could climb the depth chart just by staying healthy.
Ultimately, the veteran running back is a player that has different values depending on your format. If you’re a best ball player, you’ll get a productive member of the Eagles backfield who is just one or two injuries away from a major role behind the league’s best offensive line. In redraft, he’s either a bench stash in deep leagues or a priority waiver add should the first injury happen to D’Andre Swift or Rashaad Penny. Either way, he’s a player to know who can easily surpass his RB53 price tag.
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 97, WR48
It has been a rollercoaster experience for Elijah Moore during his first two NFL seasons. In his first season with the Jets, Moore caught 43 of 77 targets for 538 yards and five touchdowns and flashed an exceptional ability to gain yards after the catch. Unfortunately, that success did not translate into his second season. Moore fell out of favor with the coaching staff and saw a reduced role, catching just 37 of 65 catches for 446 yards and one score. The Jets moved Moore in an offseason trade to the Cleveland Browns, where he will get a fresh start.
The veteran wide receiver now finds himself in an offense tied to Deshaun Watson and working across from Amari Cooper. The Browns have been experimenting with Moore all along the formation and in the backfield this offseason, which should only boost his ability to generate fantasy points in 2023. A realistic expectation would be Moore finishing second in targets on a Cleveland team that is more likely to pass the ball with Watson playing a full season.
Despite all of that, Moore has seen his ADP worsen by 9.3 spots over the past week, putting him just inside the top 100 players drafted on Underdog. He’s going behind a player who is guaranteed to miss six games of the season (Jameson Williams) and just ahead of unknown players like Odell Beckham (112.9 ADP). Capitalize on the dip while you can.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 215 TE35
The tight end position is tough to pin down outside of the top options, so fantasy drafters should always be looking for value edges late in fantasy drafts. One of those values early in the summer is Tampa Bay tight end Cade Otton.
Otton averaged 4.5 points in half-PPR scoring in 2022, finishing with 42 receptions on 65 targets for 391 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Despite the presence of veteran tight end Cameron Brate, Otton logged a 70% snap share on the season. Brate is gone now, making Otton the starting tight end in (presumably) Baker Mayfield’s Buccaneers offense.
While there will be plenty of competition for targets in the offense, Otton does have an advantage if he’s tethered to Mayfield. During his last starting season with the Cleveland Browns, Mayfield targeted the tight end position on 28.7%. That number stayed consistent during his time with the Rams with Tyler Higbee drawing a 23% target share in Baker Mayfield’s starts (it’s worth noting he was competing for targets with Tutu Atwell and Ben Skowronek).
Regardless, Cade Otton is a free square tight end pick in fantasy drafts with an ADP of 215 as the TE35. While we can’t trust him enough to truly anchor the position, he’s an excellent grab in the last round of drafts to serve as an upside-tight end with TE2 upside. His ADP hasn’t moved at all this summer, but as we get closer to the season, that should change.
