Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with two veteran wide receivers who are coming off the board in the third round of fantasy drafts. Can Keenan Allen stay healthy after missing ample time in 2022? Will Deebo Samuel get back to his league-altering 2021 form? And which wideout should you draft in 2023?
You know the drill by now.
The Case for Keenan Allen
2023 will be Keenan Allen’s 11th NFL season, and hopefully he plays more games than he did this past season. After staying mostly healthy from 2017-2021, Allen struggled with a hamstring strain this past season. It essentially sidelined him up until Week 11, and from then on, Allen was productive, averaging 10.4 targets, 7.5 receptions, 86.1 receiving yards and 19.2 PPR points per game. During that stretch, Allen was a top-three fantasy wideout, showing he still has plenty of upside even at the age of 30. And among qualified wideouts this past season, Allen ranked 12th in yards per route run (2.18), showing he still has plenty of good football left.
The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, but it should remain a very fantasy-friendly offense. Over the past two seasons with Joe Lombardi as the offensive coordinator, the Chargers led the NFL in seconds per snap (25.9). The team just below them during that span? You guessed it, the Dallas Cowboys, who have averaged 26.0 seconds per snap since 2021, the second-fastest pace in football. They have also run no-huddle at the fifth-highest rate during that stretch (13.9%). I absolutely expect the Chargers to remain one of the fastest-paced teams going forward, which we absolutely love for fantasy football.
Secondly, Moore’s offenses have used plenty of pre-snap motion, which I love. It’s helpful because not only does it help the quarterback get a feel for the defense’s coverages, but it also gives wide receivers free releases. Per FTN Data, the Cowboys used pre-snap motion on 39% of plays last year, the 11th-highest rate in football. For reference, the Chargers ranked 22nd in percentage of plays using pre-snap motion (32%).
This past season alone, CeeDee Lamb saw a major uptick in pre-snap motion usage, while also seeing a handful of rushing attempts off jet sweeps or reverses. According to Sports Info Solutions, no player in the NFL saw more targets (36) or ran more routes (36) when in pre-snap motion last year than Lamb, so we could certainly see even more schemed targets for Allen, who already averaged 8.9 per game in 2022.
The Case against Keenan Allen
Allen is now 31 years old and has missed 11 games over the past three seasons. That’s obviously something to think about on draft day, especially following a season where he struggled to get over a hamstring issue. On top of that, while Kellen Moore’s offense will be fun for fantasy, it also should finally allow quarterback Justin Herbert to take more shots down the field. Joe Lombardi’s offense was a quick-hitting, bunch offense.
That carried over to Los Angeles, as the Chargers ran bunch sets 8% of the time, the 13th-highest rate in football. I bet that number would have been higher if the wideouts weren’t so banged up. But regardless of the personnel, Lombardi preferred the short passing game, which was a bit surprising considering Herbert has one of the best arms in the world.
Over the past two seasons, Herbert has ranked 28th and 19th in completed air yards per pass attempt (3.2, 3.9). And during that same span, Herbert also ranks 32nd and 18th in intended air yards per pass attempt. This past season, just 9.7% of Herbert’s pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, which ranked 29th among qualified signal-callers. This passing game has showcased a lot of out and hitch routes and not many vertical passes, which could have a lot to do with the Chargers’ lack of speed. With Moore coming in, we should see more of an emphasis on the vertical passing game, which isn’t where Allen does his damage. The team also selected Quentin Johnston in the first round of the NFL Draft.
The Case for Deebo Samuel
Despite having a down season in 2022, Deebo Samuel is still one of the best players in all of football, which seems like a pretty good place to start. And because of that, you know Kyle Shanahan and company are always going to look for ways to manufacture touches for Samuel, who averaged just under eight touches per game this past season. Even with Christian McCaffrey in town, San Francisco is still going to utilize Samuel in the run game, as he averaged 3.2 rush attempts per game last year. Samuel remains perhaps the best player in the league with the ball in his hands, averaging 8.8 and 10.0 yards after the catch per reception over the last two seasons, both of which led all wide receivers.
That’s ideal in this San Francisco offense that is predicated off generating a ton of YAC. From 2020-2021, 54% and 65% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards came after the catch, which ranked 8th and 1st among all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. During that same span, Garoppolo averaged 6.5 and 7.6 yards after the catch per completion, leading the league in that department both seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, nearly 40% of Garoppolo’s targeted routes were a combination of slants, crossing routes and in routes. And even with Brock Purdy taking over at quarterback in Week 13, the 49ers’ scheme didn’t change.
Purdy averaged a healthy 6.2 yards after the catch per completion. 706 of his 1,374 passing yards came after the catch (52%), while 26% of San Francisco’s targets were to the middle of the field, the sixth-highest rate in football.
The Case against Deebo Samuel
Samuel is a tremendous football player and can take a three-yard pass 50 yards to the house. The problem, however, is you are suddenly relying on him to do that when his volume is dropping and he is seeing zero usage down the field. Following an absurd 2021 campaign, Samuel took a step back in 2022. His league-leading 18.2 yards per reception dropped to 11.3, while his insane touchdown rate predictably came down. Samuel still saw a good amount of rushing attempts (3.2 per game) but saw a ton of low-upside targets.
His 2.5 yards before the catch per reception was easily the lowest rate among qualified wideouts, while his 4.51 aDOT was the second-lowest in all of football. Samuel still averaged almost eight total touches per game this past season, but the addition of McCaffrey didn’t help his fantasy production. He averaged about four fewer fantasy points per game in contests alongside CMC.
The Verdict
I understand there are age and injury concerns with Allen, but it’s not like Samuel hasn’t had issues staying on the field himself. If McCaffrey wasn’t in San Francisco, this would be very, very close, but his presence really caps Samuel’s fantasy upside because both players operate in very similar areas of the field.
And while San Francisco is a quarterback-friendly offense, the Chargers are a more fantasy-friendly one. They play faster and throw the football more. I’ll take Allen’s high floor and consistent volume, and catching passes from Herbert seems pretty optimal, too.
