Best NBA Bets Today – Thursday, March 6, 2025
FTN Staff
It’s en vogue these days to look at fantasy points on a per-game basis as opposed to a raw total. After all, it’s better to put up 200 points in 10 games than 225 points in 17, even if end-of-season leaderboards will show the 225-point scorer first. There’s plenty of logic there.
But it’s incomplete.
Even look at points on a per-game basis, a single big game can drastically alter how a player’s fantasy scoring looks. Imagine, for example, a quarterback who plays 15 games and averages 18.7 points per game, 10th at the position. But tucked within those 15 games is one where he scored 41.8 points, and in his other 14 games, he averages 16.7 points, falling down to QB19 without that one game. Looking at PPG totals for the year, you think that quarterback is a star, a sure fantasy starter. Take out one big game — yes, that game counts like all the others, but if a player’s average is lying because he doesn’t actually reach his peak often enough that matters — and he goes from a star quarterback to a waiver filler.
That’s not a hypothetical. That’s what C.J. Stroud did in 2023, and it led to him being drafted as a locked-in starter for 2024. And then he came out last season and averaged 13.7 points. Sure, 13.7 was below even the relatively pessimistic guesses based on removing his outlier game, but a more sober look at his 2023 would have scared drafters off of Stroud and saved them some anguish in 2024.
Stroud was good in 2023. But for fantasy, he was in many ways a one-game wonder. So who were the one-game wonders of 2024? Whose fantasy results from last season are painting an artificial picture of his prowess based on one big game? And does it mean anything for 2025?
(All scoring is PPR. Players needed 150 points to qualify, 120 at tight end.)
Fantasy Football One-Game Wonders of 2024
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons
Total points: 176.3
Biggest game: 34.4, Week 5 (19.5%)
Cousins’ Falcons tenure (assuming it’s over) flamed out pretty hard, but there were some bright spots early. And the primary bright spot was “Cousins against the Buccaneers.” In Week 5, he had 509 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in the Falcons’ 36-30 overtime win. He came back 24 days later with another 4 touchdowns against Tampa. For the season, Cousins had 8 touchdown passes in two games against the Buccaneers compared to 10 in 12 other games.
Check out the gap, per the FTN Fantasy splits tool:
Cousins was only QB29 in fantasy points per game (min. 4 games), so it’s not like we were excited about his season regardless. But take out that one big game, and his average falls to 10.9 (QB36), below even the likes of Deshaun Watson.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Total points: 195.0
Biggest game: 36.4, Week 18 (18.7%)
It’s rough to have one big outlier game color the perception of your entire season. It’s worse when that game comes in Week 18, when the fantasy season is over for all but the craziest of players. Bryce Young looked like a new quarterback after returning from his benching and especially after the Panthers’ Week 11 bye, with three of his four career games with 250-plus passing yards and three of his six games with multiple touchdown passes all coming in Week 12 or later last year. But even as he showed improvement down the stretch, it was that Week 18 game (251 yards and 3 touchdowns passing plus 2 scores on the ground) that left the best taste in our mouths heading into the offseason. We can believe in Young’s improvement without buying into “Week 18’s QB1.”
Running Back
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
Total points: 186.9
Biggest game: 38.3, Week 14 (20.5%)
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Total points: 181.2
Biggest game: 33.6, Week 4 (18.5%)
By full-season fantasy points last year, Charbonnet was RB25 (186.9 PPR points), Walker RB27 (181.2). Of course, Charbonnet did that in 17 games, while Walker played only 11. But Walker was the No. 1 running back whenever he was available. So if you start there, take Walker’s total and add in Charbonnet’s total whenever Walker was inactive, that gives you 17 games and 295.5 PPR points … or the No. 6 running back last year in between De’Von Achane and Josh Jacobs. And then neither guy’s big game would have had such an influence (Charbonnet’s 38.3-point Week 14 would have only been 13.0%). So the point here isn’t necessarily to discount one back or the other; the point is that if we have a strong read on the RB1 in Seattle heading into 2025, that guy is a fantasy monster if he stays healthy.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Total points: 265.3
Biggest game: 44.0, Week 2 (16.6%)
At a glance, it’s tempting to say Kamara was just as good as ever last year, with his fourth-best career points per game, ahead of 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. And he certainly had a high floor, with only one active game under 12.6 PPR points. But 16.6% of his season points came in Week 2, and nearly a full quarter of his points (24.9%) came in Weeks 1-2, when the Saints came out looking like the new Greatest Show on Turf by scoring 91 points against the Panthers and Cowboys. Unless we think there’s something in New Orleans that will allow them to perform anything like they did to start last season (and goodness, do I not see that), then Kamara’s season-long total and average are misleading. Take out his 44-point Week 2, and he averaged 17.0 points per game last year — still very good, but the second-worst total of his career ahead of only his struggle-filled 2022.
Wide Receiver
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers
Total points: 210.5
Biggest game: 46.5, Week 3 (22.1%)
Deebo Samuel Sr. is gone. There are rumors Brandon Aiyuk could leave as well. But that’s fine, the common belief goes, because the 49ers have Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall set to slide into bigger roles as, in some order, the WR2/WR3 in San Francisco, maybe even the WR1/WR2. And there is the talent for that. After recovering from his preseason shooting, Pearsall closed strong, the WR2 in Weeks 17-18. And of course Jennings had the second-biggest WR game of the season in Week 3, with his 46.5 points behind only Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.4 in Week 10. It’s good to have someone who can do that. But also … Jennings had 175 yards in Week 3 and didn’t have another 100-yard game all season. He had 3 touchdowns in that game and only 3 the rest of the season combined. For the year, his 14.0 PPG was 28th among receivers; take out that week, and his average drops to 11.7, WR41 between Calvin Ridley and Quentin Johnston.
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Total points: 206.5
Biggest game: 41.8, Week 14 (20.2%)
Most of the entries here are “Yeah, you think he was good, but beware because of X.” For Puka Nacua, it’s different. Because yes, he only had the one 40-point game, but he also had games of 18.1, 18.8, 25.3, 20.7, 17.3, 17.8 and 22.9 points. Nacua played 11 games last year and had at least 17 points in eight of them, with the misses coming in a game he got injured, a game he got ejected from and one other. So the point here is that he is an absolute star, and the only reason his Week 14 takes up such a big chunk of his scoring is because he had so few games overall. In other words, if he can stay healthy (a big “if” at this point, to be fair), there’s not much stopping Nacua from being a top-five receiver in fantasy … or there wasn’t, until the team signed Davante Adams Sunday. There’s plenty of room for both top Rams receivers to be fantasy WR1s, but Adams’ presence does cap Nacua’s overall-WR1 ceiling a bit.
Tight End
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Total points: 120.4
Biggest game: 25.7, Week 3 (21.3%)
Kmet had 25.7 points in Week 3 and 24.0 in Week 6 (and doubled as the long snapper in that game, which doesn’t matter for fantasy, but … damn, man, that’s cool). Those two games accounted for 31.9% of his receptions for the season, 35.2% of his yards, 75% of his touchdowns and 41.3% of his fantasy points. He played all 17 games last year and only reached double-digit fantasy points three times (with a 7-catch, 64-yard outing in Week 12 the third). We’ll see how new Bears head coach Ben Johnson uses tight ends in Chicago, but given the presence of DJ Moore and Rome Odunze (even with Keenan Allen gone), it would be wise to see Kmet as an extreme boom/bust guy as opposed to the fringe waiver guy his PPG might show him as.
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
Total points: 123.7
Biggest game: 26.1, Week 1 (21.1%)
Remember Week 1, when Likely had 9 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown and came a toenail away from a second score that would have sent the game to overtime? FAABs were depleted in a hurry to pounce on Likely, after which he had 9.6 points in the next three games combined. He only topped 50 yards, 5 targets or 4 receptions once again in the season, and mostly not in the same game. There was some sad FAAB users out there. As for what this means for Likely’s 2025, we don’t know yet. It will depend on the fate of Mark Andrews in Baltimore, because there are rumors the team could move on from him. If that happens, Likely’s Week 1 shows what a full season of elite usage could be like. If Andrews stays, Likely’s Week 1 shows how he could undercut Andrews on an occasional basis. To be determined!
